***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

It's a two day old article that hasn't been referenced anywhere else with an n of 60. I wouldn't be drawing very firm conclusions from this.

What does the bolded mean?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

What does the bolded mean?

Their sample size was 60. Well-designed, randomized clinical trials will have thousands of patients in their sample as it increases precision, and strengthens your predictions by surpassing what is called predictive power.

If you've seen any commercials for Entresto, (it's a medication used for heart failure), the Phase III trial that it used for FDA approval had a randomized group of over 8000 patients allotted to use either it or another drug called enalapril. The gulf in data between a trial that size and a collection of 60 blood donors without randomization could be measured in parsecs.

[RunKC]

Not sure if posted but this looks like it could speed things up.

Oops, the link: https://t.co/O7wCtTerB4

— michael_nielsen (@michael_nielsen) April 4, 2020

[O.city]

How are they actually coding deaths? I see some stuff about dying with and dying from. That seems to be an issue

[KChiefs1]

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

This virus can F off and die.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

We don't really know if viral dosage plays a role or not. That's an operating hypothesis, but it's not definitive.

Regarding healthcare workers, over 60 physicians in Italy have died of COVID-19. Of those, about 38% were GPs and would not have been performing intubations or other aerosolizing procedures that would induce a large viral load into the air, which potentially complicates the theory that initial viral load determines your clinical course.

True that it isn't definitive. I think it's highly likely but that's mostly a guess.

What do you think the R0 for Covid-19 is? Actually, let me specify... what do you think the R0 factor in the US was before social distancing? My (complete guess here) thought is that it was around 3, possibly even 3.5.

On a related note, we have 310k+ confirmed cases, what do you think the actual number of cases is? I realize this is almost completely a guess.

[arrwheader]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Two of my brothers are big time into tech. I mean, big time, huge bucks, big time positions.



Both of them have said to me in the last year that "even though it's not generally disclosed, but everyone has your data. After these companies have used said data to their own ends, they sell it".



I used to care but lately, I've just moved on to more important things because there's no use in fighting it or being upset.



This is way beyond Big Brother or anything anyone like HG Wells, Aldous Huxley and/or George Orwell could have predicted.

Congress needs to pass legislation on it. No reason companies should be able to collect data on you without your knowing consent and sell it without you at least knowing where it is going at the minimum. Some think they should pay you when they sell it as well. Idk but I think we have the right to know where our data is and who's buying it.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by arrwheader

Congress needs to pass legislation on it. No reason companies should be able to collect data on you without your knowing consent and sell it without you at least knowing where it is going at the minimum. Some think they should pay you when they sell it as well. Idk but I think we have the right to know where our data is and who's buying it.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

This conversation is a bit too political for this thread but for the most part we do consent. It's all there in the open, we just choose convenience over diligence. If you'd like to discuss more, start a thread in DC before we sidetrack this one.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

[RollChiefsRoll]

Looks like France is getting ****ed hard by this thing right now.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by RollChiefsRoll

Looks like France is getting ****ed hard by this thing right now.

I’m afraid the next 2 weeks in the US could be scary.

[arrwheader]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

This conversation is a bit too political for this thread but for the most part we do consent. It's all there in the open, we just choose convenience over diligence. If you'd like to discuss more, start a thread in DC before we sidetrack this one.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

True. With all the fine print we accept, Im more in the camp we get notified if they sell it. That's all I'll say here but it's an Interesting topic of conversation.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

I’m afraid the next 2 weeks in the US could be scary.

I think we'll be OK. One of our big advantages for this situation is that our people were already spread out in the first place with suburbs and whatnot. New York is pretty unique compared to other cities around the country.

[Demonpenz]

It seems like the days are taking long right now as well. Enough things can change in two weeks where look great then we look doomed then we look ok but our economy is ****ed then the economy is ok but everyone in New York dies.

[PAChiefsGuy]

New Orleans area's coronavirus death rate is highest in US, data show

Https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-orlea...n-us-data-show