***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Ghost of Maslowski]

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...ary-deaths.pdf

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Ok question for everybody...

Now that multiple reports are showing fatality rates for people under 50 to be equivalent to a bad flu season, what is the point in continued isolation of that demographic after our death rates plateau or start to fall?

Let's say we have already hit peak and the next few days we stay below 1000 deaths/day (this is not a prediction but a hypothetical). At what point do you ease restrictions on the extremely low risk people? We obviously can't shelter in place until a vaccine comes out. Do we wait until a treatment has been proven to be effective? Do we wait until a certain percentage of America has immunity? What is your metric?

The virus will make it's way through the herd and claim the weak and then the rest of the herd will have an immune system in place.

It's just the way it works, seen it in hogs over and over. And the larger the population it's moving through, the higher the microbial density and the higher the death rate. Rural America won't be hit hard.

[SuperBowl4]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Ok question for everybody...

Now that multiple reports are showing fatality rates for people under 50 to be equivalent to a bad flu season, what is the point in continued isolation of that demographic after our death rates plateau or start to fall?

Let's say we have already hit peak and the next few days we stay below 1000 deaths/day (this is not a prediction but a hypothetical). At what point do you ease restrictions on the extremely low risk people? We obviously can't shelter in place until a vaccine comes out. Do we wait until a treatment has been proven to be effective? Do we wait until a certain percentage of America has immunity? What is your metric?

The points are maybe to have a digital cashless society and mandatory vaccines and ID2020 implants? The long term goal? ID2020 is not a conspiracy. It it a goal all member states of the United Nations have agreed to. http://id2020.org Click on Digital ID and then click on WHY NOW.

[displacedinMN]

Mpls. closes beaches, pools and programs for the entire summer

[wazu]

Originally Posted by displacedinMN

Mpls. closes beaches, pools and programs for the entire summer

Both weeks of it?

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Ok question for everybody...

Now that multiple reports are showing fatality rates for people under 50 to be equivalent to a bad flu season, what is the point in continued isolation of that demographic after our death rates plateau or start to fall?

Let's say we have already hit peak and the next few days we stay below 1000 deaths/day (this is not a prediction but a hypothetical). At what point do you ease restrictions on the extremely low risk people? We obviously can't shelter in place until a vaccine comes out. Do we wait until a treatment has been proven to be effective? Do we wait until a certain percentage of America has immunity? What is your metric?

The rate of hospitalization seems higher than the flu in that age group you could still risk overwhelming the health care system if you open up everything without keeping some of the measures in place, like large gatherings etc.

I think they will start easing restrictions once the projections start going in the right direction because of treatment/immunity /vaccine or all of the above.

[displacedinMN]

Originally Posted by wazu

Both weeks of it?

good answer

[dirk digler]

This is behind a paywall which sucks but you get the idea. Either the CDC tests are not accurate or the person administrating the test isn't doing it right but we need to come up with a better test.

Health experts say they now believe nearly one in three patients who are infected are getting a negative test result. https://t.co/MngtrVKcon

— Rebecca Ballhaus (@rebeccaballhaus) April 2, 2020

[Monticore]

As far as immunity goes I don't think they know everything about it yet, how long are you immune for, are you immune to all 8 strains ( or whatever the amount is)etc..

They would need to figure some of that out as well.

[displacedinMN]

here is another "are you crazy idea"

As the State High School League held a workshop by video that took up the what-ifs of resuming spring sports, Gov. Tim Walz gave a strong signal to suggest it won’t happen.

Why do these coaches/AD's think he would start sports again.

I hope we distance learn until the end of the year. If our curve is supposed to peak in May, why would we go back May 4 or at all?

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

The virus will make it's way through the herd and claim the weak and then the rest of the herd will have an immune system in place.

It's just the way it works, seen it in hogs over and over. And the larger the population it's moving through, the higher the microbial density and the higher the death rate. Rural America won't be hit hard.

Claim the weak? That's a little disrespectful. So you think your parents and grandparents are weak?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Ok question for everybody...

Now that multiple reports are showing fatality rates for people under 50 to be equivalent to a bad flu season,

Is this true?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by TLO

Is this true?

No. Nor are the hospitalization rates similar.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by TLO

Is this true?

I wish it was but no it isn't

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

This is behind a paywall which sucks but you get the idea. Either the CDC tests are not accurate or the person administrating the test isn't doing it right but we need to come up with a better test.

Health experts say they now believe nearly one in three patients who are infected are getting a negative test result. https://t.co/MngtrVKcon

— Rebecca Ballhaus (@rebeccaballhaus) April 2, 2020

But if you think about it that means the mortality rate is 33% lower than believed.