***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[SAUTO]

CNN reporting that the model that was at 83k yesterday is now at 94k deaths...

[O.city]

People are about 3 weeks (maybe less) away from saying "**** it, i'll take my chances of getting sick vs dealing with a great depression"

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by O.city

People are about 3 weeks (maybe less) away from saying "**** it, i'll take my chances of getting sick vs dealing with a great depression"

I doubt you got 3 weeks, maybe 10 days.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

CNN reporting that the model that was at 83k yesterday is now at 94k deaths...

Pretty sure when I looked yesterday it was at 94K.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I doubt you got 3 weeks, maybe 10 days.

It's already getting like that in the bay area. We are probably at 50% right now. Give it another week.

They just shut down schools for the rest of this year.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by O.city

People are about 3 weeks (maybe less) away from saying "**** it, i'll take my chances of getting sick vs dealing with a great depression"

Depends on when the money starts rolling in. And how much more they are talking about throwing out IMO

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Pretty sure when I looked yesterday it was at 94K.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

Lol every news channel sucks

Needless to say it was definitely 83k a couple days ago

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

People are about 3 weeks (maybe less) away from saying "**** it, i'll take my chances of getting sick vs dealing with a great depression"

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I doubt you got 3 weeks, maybe 10 days.

I think you have until the end of April. If they start talking about another 30 days after the end of this month then yeah, people are going to start taking to the streets.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Depends on when the money starts rolling in. And how much more they are talking about throwing out IMO

If it's gonna take 6 months to get money, people aren't waiting.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

If it's gonna take 6 months to get money, people aren't waiting.

They said up to 24 weeks if you require a paper check.

[Perineum Ripper]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Spend much time in rural Missouri?

Harm or not, what I'm saying is that most of them will simply ignore it.

And yeah, lack of existing medical infrastructure is a concern in rural areas, but it's a concern that isn't going anywhere. Ever. So if you just try to effectively wall them off - what happens in a few months? Same thing. The 'buy time' argument in regions with significant hospital capacity that just needs to gear up and bear down - I can see that argument. I agree (partially ) with it.

But man - what's stalling for time due in Sullivan County? How are you going to appreciably alter outcomes over a real timeline by having Parson tell them to stay at home? Which they will largely ignore anyway?

What may actually HELP someplace like that could be having your impact come through now, when statewide travel is already reduced due to major counties closing their gates (thus slowing the initial influx). And when you have very few ancillary respiratory issues that would otherwise be bogging down what little hospital capacity they already have.

When stalling isn't likely to yield significant benefit to them - timing their window could be what's more important. And because of the nature of spread over distance, it will also have it slowly work through those rural counties and thus reduce the possibility of a larger outbreak when a state-wide order is lifted.

You ask what the harm is, but I struggle to see any clear benefit either. So ultimately shouldn't they be able to maintain some level of autonomy?

Since DJ brought up Sullivan Co, I can give some insight on that one. I grew up there, that’s where my farm is, and lots of my family love there.


They started shutting down about 2 weeks ago now, Mom has been home for about a week and a half. She works for a city in the county, dad is still working but he is with MODOT. Schools shut down, sporting events, damn near everything. Along with the surrounding areas that are in the middle of nowhere up there.

[F150]

Originally Posted by petegz28

So now they are saying masks only prevent you from spreading it not necessarily getting it.

so what? If we were to move to masks and continue social distancing and continue lock downs the spread would become even smaller.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

They said up to 24 weeks if you require a paper check.

Yeah, what a joke.

The PPP program for small busniesses is a huge cluster **** too.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

CNN reporting that the model that was at 83k yesterday is now at 94k deaths...

Man, when the shaded area (your uncertainty level) pegs you at somewhere between 40K deaths and 180K deaths...what is even being provided?

That model isn't saying "best case is 40K, worst is 180K" it's saying "this model says its gonna fall somewhere between these levels..." and then putting a line in the center.

It's the margin for error. If a model can't give me a projection that doesn't yield outcomes 4 orders of magnitude apart...maybe just don't lean into that one.

It's essentially saying "our model projects that the Chiefs will win somewhere between 4 games and 15 games next season, so we're gonna project 10..."

Well thanks, guys. Not gonna be rushing to Vegas with that information.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Lol every news channel sucks

Needless to say it was definitely 83k a couple days ago

I'm less interested in how the models are adjusting than how actual performance is comparing to modeled forecasts.