***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Well what numbers would be used to say it’s trending down?

Originally Posted by SAUTO

And this also makes the point that them saying that doesn’t really mean a ****ing thing.

If it was really trending down and looked sustainably they would have shown their work...

So what you're saying is one of the leaders of the MRC has no ****ing clue of what he is talking about but you can't cite anything to prove that his statement was inaccurate? And you say is so incompetent that he used 1 days worth of data and called that a trend?

I'm just stating what was reported. You have argued it's wrong because you just think it's wrong. You're entitled to your opinion.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And so I guess our disconnect comes in our confidence of a readily available solution over the next 8-12 weeks.

IF I thought we would see a scenario where pro-active testing (even of the healthy population) and rapid results, combined with a viable therapeutic/prophylactic treatment regiment were likely to come online in a significant enough way that you could truly and permanently prevent an eventual hard spread through rural communities, I'd be inclined to agree with you.

But I'm nowhere near confident of that. And if you bank on it and it doesn't come, then you'll lose those rural communities quickly. They simply won't have the patience to deal with watching their lives crash around them while there's no active problem anywhere near them.

Then come late summer, early fall you'll see the inevitable backlash, they'll get back to 'business as usual' and then if/when it does get there, you'll see the same spread in the same area with the same lack of resources and now you'll have a doubly large problem because respiratory disease season will be inbound to further compound things.

I can see that too.


What a ****ed up mess.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

The stimulus bills should be focused on buying yourself tons on the public unrest clock.

But they all want to money everywhere else also. Probably enough about that here though lol

I absolutely agree.

But now you run into infrastructure problems. Lot of 'em probably haven't filed tax returns in a bit. And you know most of them don't have direct deposit setup so we're talking a month or longer before any immediate relief is felt.

So again...don't start that clock yet. Let them get their rent/food taken care of for another month or 6 weeks. Then maybe more of that stimulus money can actually make its way to them.

Just more practical hurdles for getting those funds into smaller communities.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

So what you're saying is one of the leaders of the MRC has no ****ing clue of what he is talking about but you can't cite anything to prove that his statement was inaccurate? And you say is so incompetent that he used 1 days worth of data and called that a trend?

I'm just stating what was reported. You have argued it's wrong because you just think it's wrong. You're entitled to your opinion.

Ok . What can you cite that says it’s right?

[Mecca]

I can't wait to get my stimulus check so I can buy that FF7 remake.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

The issue around here is that there are no hospitals. 30 miles in either direction. Nearest trauma center is at least an hour away. There’s over 100k people easily for 2 hospitals that aren’t equipped with near what one in kc is.

Keeping everyone apart to slow the spread is all that will help imo

yep. good thing about living around here is everyone socially distances already the down side is all it takes is one infected and it can skyrocket because everyone needs to go to that 1 grocery store\gas station\pharmacy in town.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Ok . What can you cite that says it’s right?

I can cite a man whose job it is to know that said it. If you're going to say he is wrong then either prove it or just state you think he is wrong and be on your way.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

A tip of the cap to ya sir you make a very compelling argument. And I must say you make me realize what a city slicker I truly am. I'll also say I'm impressed with my fellow Missourians on this board you've schooled me a little bit on the rural culture, and also learning about the rift between St.Louis & MU. I find it to be fascinating stuff.


With that said I see what you're about the light touch of the hammer but boy with how this thing hits it COULD be too late just seems like a proactive response has been the best measure just about everywhere but again you've made a sound argument why that might not be the case in MO.

And **** man - I could end up wrong.

I said a few weeks ago - if I get banned from this thread Imma be pissed because this is my best avenue for organizing my thoughts on the fly. I try to have them fully fleshed out, but even then we're all working from imperfect knowledge.

[TLO]

A bit more Missouri information

Age Range Number of Cases
Under 20 50
20-24 154
25-29 124
30-34 123
35-39 113
40-44 141
45-49 157
50-54 191
55-59 185
60-64 179
65-69 144
70-74 109
75-79 62
80+ 101
Unknown 0
Cases by Age

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And **** man - I could end up wrong.

I said a few weeks ago - if I get banned from this thread Imma be pissed because this is my best avenue for organizing my thoughts on the fly. I try to have them fully fleshed out, but even then we're all working from imperfect knowledge.

I hope that you are right and what were doing will end up working and *fingers crossed* the virus doesnt hit our state as hard as what weve seen in some southern states. Because man I really fear what's behind door #2 especially economically for this state.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

This is mostly true and I live in a small town here in MO obviously. My concern is that these rural hospitals, heck even here in Clinton, can't or won't handle COVID patients. So they will send them to KC, St. Louis, Columbia or Springfield which need to handle their cities Covid infected population as well.

That thought colors my perspective a little also but from the other side.

Remember - I'm looking at University hospital figures right now and saying "damn...this is a lot of capacity wasted. In a perfect world we sit at 90% capacity for 8 weeks and plow through this thing, meanwhile for the last 2 we've been nowhere near that..."

Which is why the statewide lockdown thing is scary to me. Because if the backside of that CREATES a spike, that's when you'll have everyone running to the beds at the same time.

Whereas locally enacted lock-downs are more likely to yield a more organic spread pattern that could then allow particular areas to get through their shitstorm and then have created capacity by the time other regions start to experience theirs.

But all of those timelines succeed/fail based on mere days.

The whole damn thing is a house of cards and the best case scenarios are going to require insane amounts of luck. But I think trying to lock everyone onto a similar timeline is trading ceiling for floor. You do so in the hopes that the worst case scenario is better but I think you eliminate any real possibility of a best case scenario (short of massive medical advancements).

[Bwana]

Daddy Like:

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/0...QQSC0UGdLAUwOU

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Bwana

Daddy Like:

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/0...QQSC0UGdLAUwOU

This is good news

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I can cite a man whose job it is to know that said it. If you're going to say he is wrong then either prove it or just state you think he is wrong and be on your way.

Lol

You should probably take your own advice quite often

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I can cite a man whose job it is to know that said it. If you're going to say he is wrong then either prove it or just state you think he is wrong and be on your way.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...rus-cases.html

Sure looks like the metro areas are trending up to me. Looks like its slowed a bit from a couple days ago but up is up is up.