Is the NFL boring now?

[Bearcat]

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/9...assing-offense

The article itself is a bit much, but some of the stats and what not are interesting...

The league’s passing data through three weeks is indeed jarring—and not in a good way. This is the first time since 2008 that there have been fewer than 20,000 passing yards across the league through the first three weeks. Air yards per attempt are the lowest they’ve been since tracking began in 2006, sack rates are the highest we’ve seen this millennium, and the rate of completions over 20 yards hasn’t been this low since 2003. Only two quarterbacks are averaging at least 275 passing yards a game in the first three games (Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott), and there are only eight quarterbacks with five or more passing touchdowns.

Teams scored a total of just 215 touchdowns in the first three weeks—you’d have to go back to 2006 to find lower-scoring production through that point in the season.

In recent seasons, instead of bringing heavy pressure, defenses are increasingly going the opposite way and playing much more split safety defense—zone coverages with two deep safeties, like quarters and Cover 2. Teams have played Cover 3 at less than a 40 percent rate on non-blitzing reps every season since 2020. This means we’re seeing fewer teams crowding the box to stop the run and more defensive schemes geared to take away intermediate and deep passes, giving corners and linebackers help over the top.

When defenses have played split safety zone shells (Cover 2, Cover 4, and even Cover 6 schemes), offenses have largely stopped trying to push the ball downfield. Quarterbacks are averaging just 6.7 air yards per attempt against these coverage shells, so ESPN’s Mina Kimes wasn’t lying when she recently called this year’s passers “checkdown artists.”

Some of the experienced quarterbacks in the league have found a successful formula to attack split safeties. Joe Burrow, for example, has faced defenses that take every measure to keep the ball in front of them so they don’t get burned by Ja’Marr Chase, and he has responded by getting the ball out quickly and letting his receivers work in space. His average time to throw of 2.21 seconds against two-deep zone shells is the quickest in his career and fourth fastest among the 28 experienced quarterbacks in our sample. And even with this emphasis on the quick game, he’s still 11th in air yards per attempt (5.3) this season.

Lamar Jackson, meanwhile, has gone a different route, scrambling at the second-highest rate (11.5 percent) and holding the ball for 2.76 seconds on average (which ranks eighth) while pushing the ball farther downfield than Burrow (6.1 air yards per attempt).

Josh Allen, with an average time to throw of 2.94 seconds, is holding the ball even longer than all but one other starting QB this season but has yet to scramble against two-deep zones this season. It’s in his football DNA to throw deep, and he’s the only quarterback averaging more than 10 air yards against two-deep zones this year. Burrow, Jackson, and Allen each rank in the top five in success rate, and each does it in a different way.