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Old 01-03-2024, 12:05 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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Duncan Idaho's Compendium of Comprehensive Offseason Plans

Offseason Plan: Version 5.0

Now with more Chris Jones, for sure, and an understanding of his contract. And Drue Tranquill on contract.

Cut
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
DE Charles Omenihu (last time, I said this stunk. Hearing him saying today that he thinks he should be paid like the guys in the tier right behind Nick Bosa makes it a pretty no-brainer. He clearly isn’t in a spot to do a small extension. So cut him loose.)

Extend
S Justin Reid (4/$49M – I stick to the restructure of Reid in this run. He’s just so solid and good and reliable, and the secondary still needs a veteran leader.)

Tag and Trade
CB L’Jarius Sneed (this time, I send him to the Vikings for #42 because that’s fun)

Trade
WR Kadarius Toney (2025 conditional 6th)

Let Walk
Mike Edwards
Derrick Nnadi
Willie Gay
Jerick McKinnon
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Blake Bell
Richie James
Deon Bush
Tommy Townsend (we don’t need him any more, we have the Dolphin)
Jody Fortson
Prince Tega-Wanogho

Re-Sign
Tershawn Wharton (3 years, $9.5M – The DT room is thin even with Jones back, and watching the SB we really saw what I thought was Wharton’s best game. I like having a DT with that burst and speed, and he has clearly gotten much stronger, and he is athletic enough to run some DE snaps in a pinch)
James Winchester (minimal deal)
Malik Herring (ERFA tender)
Jack Cochrane (ERFA tender)
Nazeeh Johnson (ERFA tender)
Mike Caliendo (ERFA tender)

FA Moves
QB Trevor Siemian (1/$1.7M – veteran QB)
DE Yetur Gross-Matos (1/$1.6M – just seems like a good bet for KC as a Spags-type DE who is a Veach reclamation attempt special to boot)
OT Yosh Nijman (2/$12.3M – I just am not comfortable going into the draft with only Wanya Morris and a rookie at LT. Nijman provides a little veteran depth with some upside).

With these deals done, I’m still sitting on about $22M of cap space without restructuring Mahomes at all. I’ve added draft capital and addressed LT insurance/depth with a vet I think can be at least AVERAGE at LT.

I still dive back in at this point for WR Darnell Mooney at 1/$8M , with incentives up to $12M. That still leaves me about $15M in cap space, which I could use to sign draft picks and hunt for June 1 cuts/late FA bargains. I’m tempted to go get Teair Tartt in this cycle but hold off.

Getting into the season without touching Mahomes deal at ALL is going to really help with flexibility in 2025, when it’s going to be needed due to the Jones situation being added to the books.

Draft
Needs based on plan so far:
As before, we’re still looking at a pretty set roster that doesn’t have any glaring needs but needs to invest at DT, WR, and LT.

Simulator used: NFL Mock Draft Database (best aggregated big board at this point)

1.32: Kingsley Suamataia, LT, BYU. Suamataia needs seasoning, but his upside is high and he checks the size, arm length, and athleticism boxes to be a good long-term LT for the Chiefs.

2.42: Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan. This might be high
OK, this might be a bit of a reach. But Wilson is someone I haven’t mocked to KC before and I do think his speed, explosiveness, and ability to make cuts at top speed make him a good fit for KC’s offense. With Mooney only signed for one year, Wilson would be on hand with experience under his belt for 2025 and beyond for that role.

Also considered: Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina. I probably would go here like I did in my last mock, but I wanted to switch it up.

2.64 Sedrick Van Pran, IOL, Georgia. Here’s a new one. I considered dipping for another WR here (hothead Jermain Burton!) but instead stick on the OL. The Jones decision is going to come with consequences on other players, and I may need to account for them. Van Pran can be a stud C or a good G. If Humphrey walks, you’re covered. If Smith walks, you’re covered. If they cut Thuney to keep Smith and Humphrey, you’re covered. If they need to move Humphrey off C because of Snaps, you’re covered.

3.95 McKinnley Jackson, DT, Texas A&M Big bulky dude to help replace Nnadi.

4.131 Brenden Rice, WR, USC. His 40 at the combine was a disappointment, but I still like his size and ability to work the scramble drill. Great bloodlines, great work ethic, and I think he’s faster than his 40.

5.158 Deantre Prince, CB, Ole Miss. I missed on the round 2 and round 3 CB values/fits. His size/speed/athletic profile tracks with the Day 3 gems the Chiefs have been finding. Let’s keep it rolling.

5.172 Isaac Guerendo, RB, Louisville. I am not first to the Guerendo train, but I’m on it. Size/speed combo is great. I doubt he actually makes it here, though.

7.250 Gabe Hall, DT, Baylor. I like Hall’s size and athletic ability. Seemed worthwhile for a Day 3 stab.

Wrapping it up

This will be my last offseason exercise. I’m pretty stoked about where KC lands in this, honestly.

Two-deep (Re-signed,FA adds, rookies)

(2) QB: Mahomes/Siemian
(3) RB: Pacheco/Guerendo/Prince
(6) WR: Rice, Mooney, Wilson/ Watson, Rice, Moore
(3) TE: Kelce/Gray/min contract vet

(2) OT: Nijman/Suamataia

(2) OG: Thuney/Morris
(1) C: Humphrey/Van Pran
(2) RG: Smith/Caliendo
(2) RT: Taylor/Morris

(6) DE: Karlaftis, Anudike-Uzomah, Gross-Matos, Harring, Thompsonsmall contract vet
(5) DT: Jones,Wharton,Farrell, Jackson ,Hall

(5) LB: Bolton, Tranquill, Chenal, Cochrane, Jones

(6) CB: McDuffie, Williams, Watson, Johnson, Jones, Prince
(4) S: Reid, Cook, Conner, inexpensive vet, probably Deon Bush

(1) LS: Winchester
(1) K: Butker
(1) P: The Dolphin

That leaves 1 spot floating if my count is right, probably goes to depth at OL or maybe another DB who is a special teams asset.

The defense still is built around Chris Jones and I know that DE room is going to make some people nervous. I’d be looking for some training camp cuts/late FA additions to beef that spot up some more. The LB corps is still a strong one (and still one of the better ones in the NFL, if not quite as versatile in base with Willie Gay presumably making a lot of money elsewhere), and the secondary is still a strength (probably a little stronger at S in 24 than it was in 23, with Reid, Conner, and Cook, but obviously turning things over at CB).

I’d feel good about the chances for a 3-peat with this one, and I think KC would be the preseason favorite in this run. Defense is still strong, offense got a bunch of help.

Looking ahead to 25, I haven’t addressed Bolton-Humphrey-Smith. In light of the Jones signing and structure, I don’t think they can keep 2 any more. Might just be one… and maybe neither of the OL.

Offseason Plan: Version 4.0
Spoiler!


Offseason Plan: Version 3.0

Spoiler!
Spoiler!

Offseason Plan: Version 2.0

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Offseason Plan: Version 1.0
Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 03-11-2024 at 10:19 AM..
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Old 01-10-2024, 12:10 PM   #46
kccrow kccrow is offline
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Jones recent comment about this maybe being his last game at Arrowhead kind of puts some writing on the wall. I don't think he's back, and at his number we probably shouldn't. He's a great player, no doubt, but sinking 28+ into a DT is tough to do.
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Old 01-10-2024, 12:25 PM   #47
Nightfyre Nightfyre is offline
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Lots of penalties are objective as well, but we accept that.

I'm a PFF fan, but understand most aren't.
I think PFF got crushed at the outset quite rightfully. But my understanding is that they have diligently worked to improve their product. I don't know any of the specifics but was kind of hoping to foster a conversation with the folks who might keep up on that stuff to lazily get an update.
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Old 01-10-2024, 12:31 PM   #48
Nightfyre Nightfyre is offline
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Jones recent comment about this maybe being his last game at Arrowhead kind of puts some writing on the wall. I don't think he's back, and at his number we probably shouldn't. He's a great player, no doubt, but sinking 28+ into a DT is tough to do.
I think when you step back to the big picture there is a lot of merit to investing draft capital at interior pass rusher, EDGE, WR, OL, and CB and filling the roster through free agency around that. (assuming you have solved for QB). Like bang for buck wise. Such a strategy should enable you to have a much deeper roster just given the premium teams are paying for the positions you focus on drafting.
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Old 01-10-2024, 12:49 PM   #49
O.city O.city is offline
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I think when you step back to the big picture there is a lot of merit to investing draft capital at interior pass rusher, EDGE, WR, OL, and CB and filling the roster through free agency around that. (assuming you have solved for QB). Like bang for buck wise. Such a strategy should enable you to have a much deeper roster just given the premium teams are paying for the positions you focus on drafting.
It's great in theory, but it just requires you to hit on a really high number of draft picks. It's just tough.
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Old 01-10-2024, 01:40 PM   #50
JPH83 JPH83 is offline
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How do you intend to address the WR room?

You can't 'run it back' with this team. And if you retain Sneed and Jones, that's what you're committing to.

A) 'Run it back' rarely works
B) This ain't a good enough squad to do that with anyway.

It needs a fairly significant roster shakeup and bringing back both Sneed and Jones will prevent that.
Meant to upvote, fat fingers, sorry
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Old 01-10-2024, 01:49 PM   #51
DJ's left nut DJ's left nut is offline
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Meant to upvote, fat fingers, sorry
Dick!
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Old 01-10-2024, 01:51 PM   #52
Couch-Potato Couch-Potato is offline
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
How do you intend to address the WR room?

You can't 'run it back' with this team. And if you retain Sneed and Jones, that's what you're committing to.

A) 'Run it back' rarely works
B) This ain't a good enough squad to do that with anyway.

It needs a fairly significant roster shakeup and bringing back both Sneed and Jones will prevent that.
Like O.City says, if you keep Jones and Sneed you can afford to draft a WR RD 1 or flip a pick for a guy like Hopkins. TEN might be more willing to do so now that Vrabel is out. If you go with a RD 1 WR maybe you find some money for a small contract for a guy like Renfrow to be your #3. Likewise, if you can get a guy like Hopkins you can go OT in RD 1 and wait until the mid-rounds for a #3 WR.

Also restructuring doesn't have to be catastrophic for the future of our cap. For instance, if you convert $10m of Mahomes Salary to Signing Bonus then that $10m is now spread from 2024 season at $10m, to the next 5 seasons at $2m each, and if the cap is going up by say $20m a year then you're good. The impact becomes less and less each season as long as you don't abuse it too much.
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Old 01-10-2024, 01:57 PM   #53
Couch-Potato Couch-Potato is offline
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Like O.City says, if you keep Jones and Sneed you can afford to draft a WR RD 1 or flip a pick for a guy like Hopkins. TEN might be more willing to do so now that Vrabel is out. If you go with a RD 1 WR maybe you find some money for a small contract for a guy like Renfrow to be your #3. Likewise, if you can get a guy like Hopkins you can go OT in RD 1 and wait until the mid-rounds for a #3 WR.

Also restructuring doesn't have to be catastrophic for the future of our cap. For instance, if you convert $10m of Mahomes Salary to Signing Bonus then that $10m is now spread from 2024 season at $10m, to the next 5 seasons at $2m each, and if the cap is going up by say $20m a year then you're good. The impact becomes less and less each season as long as you don't abuse it too much.
I'd add that this might be the right strategy with J. Taylor. He's leading the league in penalties and not impressing anyone. We're locked into a sizable contract with him until at least next offseason. If he's absolutely terrible in the playoffs maybe you decide to cut your loss but need cap space to replace him, so maybe you restructure and bench or cut him, and bring in someone else with that cap space and pay the dead cap price for Taylor's restructure over the next 5 years. Not ideal, but something you might do to reduce the impact of a potentially poor decision.
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Old 01-10-2024, 02:03 PM   #54
Couch-Potato Couch-Potato is offline
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Pete Caroll out for SEA... Maybe Lockett gets let go to save cap space. They're pressed up against the cap with only $1.5m and he's due for a new contract.
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Old 01-10-2024, 05:11 PM   #55
kccrow kccrow is offline
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I think when you step back to the big picture there is a lot of merit to investing draft capital at interior pass rusher, EDGE, WR, OL, and CB and filling the roster through free agency around that. (assuming you have solved for QB). Like bang for buck wise. Such a strategy should enable you to have a much deeper roster just given the premium teams are paying for the positions you focus on drafting.
I agree largely. I don't know if I care too much about investing large amounts of capital in DT but ER, WR, OT, and CB I am 100% on board with. Keep em churning and developing. DT, RB, LB, S and IOL are relatively cheap in FA comparatively even if they are really good players. You only really pay high dollar for exceptional as those positions.
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Old 01-10-2024, 10:12 PM   #56
Chris Meck Chris Meck is offline
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It's great in theory, but it just requires you to hit on a really high number of draft picks. It's just tough.
Hey, guess what?

If you don't hit on a high number of draft picks, you're ****ed in the NFL.

you can't just spend your way to multiple championships in the NFL. You can MAYBE buy one. Ask The Rams.

You can spend what SHOULD have bought you a Super Bowl and still not get there, ask The Cowboys.

To have sustained success, you damned well better draft well.
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Old 01-10-2024, 10:15 PM   #57
Chris Meck Chris Meck is offline
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I agree largely. I don't know if I care too much about investing large amounts of capital in DT but ER, WR, OT, and CB I am 100% on board with. Keep em churning and developing. DT, RB, LB, S and IOL are relatively cheap in FA comparatively even if they are really good players. You only really pay high dollar for exceptional as those positions.
Yeah.

Two or three good players at those positions for what ONE at a premium position costs. Better be hitting on those in the draft.
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Old 01-11-2024, 08:41 AM   #58
O.city O.city is offline
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Hey, guess what?

If you don't hit on a high number of draft picks, you're ****ed in the NFL.

you can't just spend your way to multiple championships in the NFL. You can MAYBE buy one. Ask The Rams.

You can spend what SHOULD have bought you a Super Bowl and still not get there, ask The Cowboys.

To have sustained success, you damned well better draft well.
There's a reason no one has kept drafting their way to it either.

The odds are, you're eventually gonna draft some shit birds.
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Old 01-12-2024, 01:04 AM   #59
JPH83 JPH83 is offline
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Dick!
Upvoted your insult to make amends!
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Old 01-12-2024, 01:09 AM   #60
JPH83 JPH83 is offline
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Originally Posted by kccrow View Post
I agree largely. I don't know if I care too much about investing large amounts of capital in DT but ER, WR, OT, and CB I am 100% on board with. Keep em churning and developing. DT, RB, LB, S and IOL are relatively cheap in FA comparatively even if they are really good players. You only really pay high dollar for exceptional as those positions.
It's why I'd move on from Justin Reid and feel pretty casual about letting someone like Gay walk. If you stumble upon elite players at those positions fine, maybe you try and keep them. Otherwise keep churning and developing. Cam Jones looked like he could be a very reliable run-stuffing LB in that Chargers game as an example
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