Let's talk about the Yankees

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by SithCeNtZ

I’ll do a series preview since we have a couple of days before the game. On the surface, the Royals did not do very well vs the Yankees this year, going 2-5 and getting outscored 42-24. So, it would seem that we just don’t match up well with them for some reason. But that isn’t the whole story, and there are, as usual, reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic going into this series. Let’s dig into it:

You should be optimistic because:
- The majority of the runs given up are by people who aren’t or shouldn’t see any playing time this series. The Yankees can throw out a very left handed heavy lineup, and you aren’t going to believe this, but Brady Singer vs a left handed lineup isn’t going to go well. He allowed 9 ER in 10.2 innings by himself. Not surprisingly we lost both games. Nick Pratto had a better ERA vs the Yankees this season. Then there was the weird blow-up game where we decided Altavilla should be the opener. Remember that? No? Probably because you turned the TV off within 15 minutes of the game starting, where Altavilla gave up 5 ER in .1 innings. Lynch came in as the sacrificial lamb and just had to eat innings regardless of what happened and gave up 5 ER after getting out of the first. Toss in 10 ER from McArthur, Stratton, and Anderson, and you have 29 of the 42 runs attributed to guys who won’t play except for Lynch, who is obviously a different pitcher and won’t be starting.
- Regans and Lugo were generally quite good against them. Lugo had a bit of a mediocre start in his first bout, giving up 4 ER in 7 IP and taking the loss. But he rebounded with probably his best game of the year at Yankee stadium last month, going 7 IP 0 ER and 10 ks. If you recall, Regans had an amazing start going too until he fell victim to the most bizarre pitching decision of the year by far. Soto fouled the ball off his foot/ankle and could barely walk back to the batter’s box, so Regans, in a decision that continues to baffle scientists and baseball scholars to this day, decided that instead of making him reach for a pitch on a bad foot he should throw him an inside fastball because ??? Soto hits a 2 run HR and the Yankees win it in extras. Assuming Regans doesn’t lose his mind again, he should be primed for another good game.
- The Royals did damage against the Yankees bullpen. I don’t follow the Yankees close enough to know who they are going with in the pen these days, nor am I sure they even know who they are going to go to from night to night. Regardless, the Royals were able to have success against the pen, so I don’t think there is anyone on their roster that scares us if we can get the starters out of the game.
- The Royals bullpen matches up much better now than it did before. Our main relief pitchers threw a shutout during the September series. Because they can run heavy on the left handed side, having several lefties in the pen is important to our success in this series.

You should be worried because:
-Cole is still Cole. He has 2 starts in the last 2 months with 3 ER or more. He has 7 with 1 ER or fewer. There is no getting around it, he’s going to be tough and we can only hope he’s rusty after a long layoff on Saturday. The only positive here is that he isn’t going deep into games, with just 1 start over 6 IP.
-Carlos Rodon is easily the biggest X Factor in this series in my mind. If you listen to Rany on the Kaufman Corner Podcast, you’ll know that he is pretty into analytics, and he has stated several times this year that the biggest royals weakness in the lineup is a lack of a lefty bat besides Vinny. Unfortunately, this is not quite correct and misses a huge blind spot the Royals have had all year: the royals are absolutely terrible vs left handed pitching. Name any category you want and we are in the bottom 1/3 of baseball against LHP. Some categories are absolutely abysmal, including the third worst OBP against lefties in the league. Enter Rodon, who went 13 IP 3 ER 12 k’s against us this season. He is the definition of erratic in his other games, but he has dominated us because we have no lefty killers in the lineup other than the 2 guys who are generally good vs everyone: witt and salvy. Quick, name the guy with the best OPS vs lefties on the royals with a minimum of 75 PA? Would you believe it’s actually Blanco? But he is going to be kept on the bench for pinch running purposes. Renfroe used to be a lefty killer but isn’t any more, same with Gurriell and Pham. Melendez and Isbel are black holes against them. I don’t know if Dejong is alive but they clearly don’t trust him. Garcia is bad against everyone. They have to find a way to put together more than 3 runs in 2 games this series against him. If Cole pitches well, we are going to have a heck of a time winning the series if we can’t do anything vs Rodon.
-Our offense in general is still a mess. While Vinny is welcomed back, we still are in a massive slump. We won’t win this series with 1 XBH like we did in Baltimore. Garcia hasn’t had an XBH in 14 games, Witt 8. Salvy has 1 in his last 15, Guriell has 3 in his entire time with the Royals, Isbel 1 in 14, Melendez 1 in 11, Pham 1 in 12, Fermin’s last one was in the Kennedy Administration. Just kidding, it was August 23rd, which feels that long ago. Really the only guy hitting for any power consistently is Massey, and everyone else is a question mark. I’m not even going to list the OPS for everyone since Sept 1, but it’s bad. Someone, or someone new each night, has to step up in the bottom half of the lineup. Garcia did game 1, but we were back to nothing last night. We have to get some production there to have a chance and win a game 6-5 or something along those lines.

All told, I feel a bit better after digging into what happened during the regular season and why the record was what it was. I think the pitching staff will keep them in it, but as usual, it’s going to come down to the bats and can we solve left handed pitching.

Blah blah blah blah - **** the Yankees