Why is offense/scoring down in the league the past few years?

[O.city]

So I'm trying to figure out what's happening here, anyone have any ideas?

Is it just that defenses have caught up to the offenses or?

[MarkDavis'Haircut]

Defenses evolved and adapted.

Several great QBs retired.

I prefer lower scoring games.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

To me it just seems like offenses are behind schematically, they haven't been able to run the ball well enough to give most QBs a good chance against these fast secondaries that have LBs who can often cover just as good as the safeties.

[DJJasonp]

started with mahomes, then allen, burrow..........play 2 deep safeties, make scoring death by 100 cuts, rather than give up the deep ball.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by DJJasonp

started with mahomes, then allen, burrow..........play 2 deep safeties, make scoring death by 100 cuts, rather than give up the deep ball.

Pretty much this. DCs figured out a way to slow down Mahomes' deep ball and it worked well against others too.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DJJasonp

started with mahomes, then allen, burrow..........play 2 deep safeties, make scoring death by 100 cuts, rather than give up the deep ball.

Yeah - the Fangio shell is doing what it was designed to do.

The other element of that, however, is that it compounds onto YOUR offense.

So sure, you go out there and utilize death by 1,000 papercuts and make them march slow and methodically down the field. Sooner or later they probably pull it off. but in the process now your offense has gone from getting 13 possessions to getting 11.

So when teams play that defense, it makes THEIR offense less prolific. And when both squads are playing that, you could see 9-10 possession ballgames. And then scoring suffers.

It's....{shudder}...Hermball. On a leaguewide scale.

I'm not sure it's actually conducive to winning for a great deal many teams. But it IS gonna keep scoring down. On both sides of the ledger.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah - the Fangio shell is doing what it was designed to do.

The other element of that, however, is that it compounds onto YOUR offense.

So sure, you go out there and utilize death by 1,000 papercuts and make them march slow and methodically down the field. Sooner or later they probably pull it off. but in the process now your offense has gone from getting 13 possessions to getting 11.

So when teams play that defense, it makes THEIR offense less prolific. And when both squads are playing that, you could see 9-10 possession ballgames. And then scoring suffers.

It's....{shudder}...Hermball. On a leaguewide scale.

I'm not sure it's actually conducive to winning for a great deal many teams. But it IS gonna keep scoring down. On both sides of the ledger.

It's just put a premium on efficiency and in today's league that's just tougher.

There's become such a wide margin between the elites and the mid tier/bottom feeders that you pretty much have to hope to small sample size it and win.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

It's just put a premium on efficiency and in today's league that's just tougher.

There's become such a wide margin between the elites and the mid tier/bottom feeders that you pretty much have to hope to small sample size it and win.

Exactly.

Teams hope that the shorter the sample size, the less a better team is able to run and hide with it and they can get the big break (penalty, turnover, whatever) that allows them to steal it.

Which is why I say that too many teams are running it. If you're an average or better team, unless you're playing Mahomes or Allen, you probably shouldn't be running that defense. You're as likely as not to win it 'straight'. By playing so much Cover 6, you're essentially putting your outcomes up to chance.

There are 10-12 teams that are well served running that defense, IMO. And some of those teams don't have the personnel in their defensive secondary to do it well. The rest of the teams are just playing follow the leader - as is custom in this league.

Which is why Campbell is trying to attack it with power running. Harbaugh appears to be content doing the same in LA. The 49ers sure seemed happy to do it last night. Physical teams will continue to attack it in the trenches.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Exactly.

Teams hope that the shorter the sample size, the less a better team is able to run and hide with it and they can get the big break (penalty, turnover, whatever) that allows them to steal it.

Which is why I say that too many teams are running it. If you're an average or better team, unless you're playing Mahomes or Allen, you probably shouldn't be running that defense. You're as likely as not to win it 'straight'. By playing so much Cover 6, you're essentially putting your outcomes up to chance.

There are 10-12 teams that are well served running that defense, IMO. And some of those teams don't have the personnel in their defensive secondary to do it well. The rest of the teams are just playing follow the leader - as is custom in this league.

Which is why Campbell is trying to attack it with power running. Harbaugh appears to be content doing the same in LA. The 49ers sure seemed happy to do it last night. Physical teams will continue to attack it in the trenches.

I figure we will continue to see those physical teams late in the playoffs, per usual.

Then you'll have the teams with elite QB's there.

But in terms of attacking it, I'd imagine you just have to bludgeon it until they come out of it.

EDIT: I read this wrong at first. Yes, if you are an elite or good team, I dont' know that I'd wanna play this style unless there's just a fire breather on the other side.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah - the Fangio shell is doing what it was designed to do.

The other element of that, however, is that it compounds onto YOUR offense.

So sure, you go out there and utilize death by 1,000 papercuts and make them march slow and methodically down the field. Sooner or later they probably pull it off. but in the process now your offense has gone from getting 13 possessions to getting 11.

So when teams play that defense, it makes THEIR offense less prolific. And when both squads are playing that, you could see 9-10 possession ballgames. And then scoring suffers.

It's....{shudder}...Hermball. On a leaguewide scale.

I'm not sure it's actually conducive to winning for a great deal many teams. But it IS gonna keep scoring down. On both sides of the ledger.

ALEX SMITH WAS AHEAD OF HIS TIME

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah - the Fangio shell is doing what it was designed to do.

The other element of that, however, is that it compounds onto YOUR offense.

So sure, you go out there and utilize death by 1,000 papercuts and make them march slow and methodically down the field. Sooner or later they probably pull it off. but in the process now your offense has gone from getting 13 possessions to getting 11.

So when teams play that defense, it makes THEIR offense less prolific. And when both squads are playing that, you could see 9-10 possession ballgames. And then scoring suffers.

It's....{shudder}...Hermball. On a leaguewide scale.

I'm not sure it's actually conducive to winning for a great deal many teams. But it IS gonna keep scoring down. On both sides of the ledger.

I wonder if scoring\offense continues to go down if the NFL will adjust the rules to stop this.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I wonder if scoring\offense continues to go down if the NFL will adjust the rules to stop this.

What do you adjust? You gonna tell them they can't play zone anymore?

I just don't know how you address that. Teams have to answer it.

I suspect they will sooner or later. You'll see more teams looking to find physical WRs that will do what Rice does. Rather than getting beat by the run 5 yards at a clip, you'll get beat by the pass 12 yards at a clip.

And at that point, you're just as screwed as you are if you're playing single-high.

You'll see more slants, drags and underneath routes designed to get guys into space UNDER the safeties and into spots in the zone.

Again, I pointed this out 3-4 years ago when the Chiefs were getting abused by Tampa 2 stuff. This isn't new. Teams just stopped building around it after they murdered it in the early 2000s and opposing DCs had to stop running it.

They'll kill it off soon enough. It's not a terribly good defense, IMO. And it will get dissected again soon enough.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

What do you adjust? You gonna tell them they can't play zone anymore?

I just don't know how you address that. Teams have to answer it.

I suspect they will sooner or later. You'll see more teams looking to find physical WRs that will do what Rice does. Rather than getting beat by the run 5 yards at a clip, you'll get beat by the pass 12 yards at a clip.

And at that point, you're just as screwed as you are if you're playing single-high.

You'll see more slants, drags and underneath routes designed to get guys into space UNDER the safeties and into spots in the zone.

Again, I pointed this out 3-4 years ago when the Chiefs were getting abused by Tampa 2 stuff. This isn't new. Teams just stopped building around it after they murdered it in the early 2000s and opposing DCs had to stop running it.

They'll kill it off soon enough. It's not a terribly good defense, IMO. And it will get dissected again soon enough.

Yeah I don't know, like they could do what Pasta posted and eliminate zone defense. That would be extreme though. One thing I thought of would be to require all d players to be within 10-15 yds of LOS.

[GloucesterChief]

Offenses haven't adapted to the two deep shell and coverage backer scheme. In addition college linemen are not the road grader run first smashmouth type any more being much more athletic and able to operate in space.

The counter to a lighter front 7 and lots of DBs is a power run game to punish the lighter defense but O coordinators have not adopted that yet. Then PA pass off of that.

[Megatron96]

Average QB play is down. College QBs aren’t coming into the league developed well enough. Ditto rookie OLs. For the same reasons.


Kurt Warner has a video on the subject in his QB Confidential series on YT. Most Rookies are coming out early, so fewer reps/ less overall experience, and most have only seen one concept, and when it’s a simplistic system like RPO or whatever, these kids have little to no foundational knowledge going into the pros.