Nightfyre Mock Off-season 1.0

[Nightfyre]

OFFSEASON VARIATION 1.0
OVERVIEW
We are going to assume Sneed is traded for a second, designated pick 2A, doesn’t really matter at which point in the round right now. The name of the game in this mock is to acquire cost-controlled talent at premium positions that align with the strengths of the draft class.
There is a case to be made for moving up for value at Tackle, which we can tackle in a later mock, but this one will focus on weapons to shape the next iteration of the Chiefs Dynasty – hopefully just in time to extend the 5 year run four more years.


CUTS
Omenihu (Chiefs don’t need to negotiate against themselves here.)

ERFA TENDERS
Malik Herring
Jack Cochrane
Nazeeh Johnson
Mike Caliendo


EXTENSIONS
Justin Reid (Cap neutral to extend)
Harrison Butker (Cap neutral to extend)


FREE AGENCY (Probably not how everyone envisioned the off-season)
Chris Jones (Four year deal for 130M with 90M guaranteed)
4/130, 90ish gty'd incl. 40MM signing bonus.
Salary/Roster bonuses: 10/20/25/35
Cap Number: 20/30/35/45

Tyron Smith (One year deal for 5M with incentives LTBE of 3M and NLTBE up to 3M)
The Chiefs bring in Tyron Smith on an incentive-based deal understanding his injury history. This at least buys additional time for Morris to develop and for the Chiefs to evaluate who Morris will become.

Noah Brown (Two year deal for 11M)
We can’t go into the season with a corps of receivers consisting of a bunch of rookies. We need stability at either the X or the Z. Noah Brown has a chance to amplify his value by playing with the best quarterback in the league.

Javon Kinlaw (Three year deal for 18M)
Spags would love Kinlaw’s potential versatility on pass-rushing downs next to
Chris Jones. Big and strong enough to be inside and generate push on passing downs, and plays the run well enough to give Chris Jones a rest as needed.

Drew Lock (One year deal for 4M)
Drew Lock opts to come back to Missouri to back up Mahomes and receive the benefit of Reid’s tutelage. Lock and Reid have old connections that could make this a desirable outcome, and Gabbert didn’t do enough to inspire confidence to fill in for Mahomes, even on a temporary basis.

James Winchester (League Minimum)

Gross-Matos (League Minimum or thereabouts) Gross-Matos is really a scheme fit, should be willing to come play in Spags scheme on a prove-it deal to maximize his future value. The deal Danna gets should clinch this one.

Mike Pennel (League Minimum) - Mike proved he belongs during the super bowl. Maybe there’s more to his backstory I am unfamiliar with, but I can’t believe he wasn’t on a team last year.


RESTRUCTURE
Mahomes restructures 15M-20M to free up the requisite cap space.


DRAFT (Weapons-Palooza)
You may say this draft has too many receivers. I say, you can never get enough cost-controlled talent to fill the 25-30 million APY positions – EDGE, WR, OT, DTs (who can rush the passer) – We don’t want to pay these people. We want to build a strong core of talent in these positions so we can afford a deep roster.

The goal of this draft is to shore up the Z spot with Adonai Mitchell, and solve redzone scoring deficiencies with Coleman and Wilson, two targets who will catch the ball despite coverage by using their ability to create space with their bodies. Wilson, who should be evaluated and drafted through a tight-end lense, will also benefit from tutelage from Kelce – if he can develop the knack to read defenses and find soft zones, he would be uncoverable. Why draft him as a tight end? Because he moves like a really smooth one and his size profile is certainly there.

T'Vondre Sweat fills a huge need at the 0-tech, demanding a double team but with the push and athleticism to punish a team if they choose to double someone else.

Isaac Guerendo is someone I have hope for replacing McKinnon’s 3DRB role. Good hands, incredible athlete. These types of running backs are harder to find than one would think at first blush, so the team invests in a guy who has the upside without the wear and tear.

Jaylen Coker is a guy that will start by taking relief snaps in the slot – excellent routes to create separation is the name of his game. He lacks top-end speed but has explosive agility that will enable him to develop into the perfect WR4 in time – a guy who can take reps outside and in the slot, as needed, and move the chains by securing the catch.

R1: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas




R2A: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State




R2B: T’Vondre Sweat, DT, Texas



R3: Johnny Wilson, TE, Florida State



R4: Isaac Guerendo, RB, Louisville




R5A: Jaylen Coker, WR, Holy Cross




R5B: Mason McCormick, IOL, NDSU
(I am not deep enough into this class to project anything this deep into the draft yet.) Finding FCS video is hard. This guy crushed the FCS competition and, by the sounds of it, the shrine bowl as well. A perfect mauler with a small school discount.

R6: Tyler Owens, S, Texas Tech
(I am not deep enough into this class to project anything this deep into the draft yet.) Purely a traits pick, since I have no earthly idea where else to go here.

R7: Gabe Hall, DL, Baylor
(I am not deep enough into this class to project anything this deep into the draft yet.) Purely a traits pick, since I have no earthly idea where else to go here.


Final Roster (52/53 open to suggestions for an additional tackle)
QB – Mahomes, Lock
RB – Pacheco, Guerendo, Prince
X – Brown, Coleman, Ross
Z – Mitchell, Toney
Y – Rice, Moore, Coker
TE – Kelce, Gray, Wilson
LT – Smith
LG – Thuney
C – Humphrey
RG – Smith
RT – Taylor
IOL Depth – McCormick, Caliendo
Swing Tackle – Morris
DE – Karlaftis, Gross-Matos, Anudike-Uzomah, Harring, Thompson, Hall
DT – Jones, Sweat, Kinlaw, Pennel, Farrell
LB – Bolton, Tranquill, Chenal, Cochrane, Jones
CB – McDuffie, Williams, Watson, Johnson, Jones
S – Reid, Cook, Conner, Owens
LS – Winchester
P – Araiza
K – Butker


Expected Compensatory Pick Summary:
Chiefs FA Losses expected to qualify for a compensatory pick:
Mike Danna
Willie Gay
Donovan Smith
Tommy Townsend


Chiefs FA losses that have the potential to qualify for a compensatory pick:
Tershawn Wharton
Nick Allegretti


Chiefs FA losses unlikely to qualify for a compensatory pick:
Marquez Valdez Scantling (Cut)
Mecole Hardman
Mike Edwards
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Prince Tega Wanogho
Blaine Gabbert
Jerick McKinnon
Blake Bell
Richie James
Derrick Nnadi
Deon Bush
Darius Harris
Jody Fortson


Free Agent acquisitions likely to count against the Chiefs compensatory formula:
Tyron Smith
Noah Brown
Javon Kinlaw

[Nightfyre]

Also, apologies the formatting isn't prettier - really just wanted to get it out there. I may come back and pretty it up as a template for future attempts.

[kccrow]

Thanks for the share. A few too many WRs for my tastes but I like the overall objective.

[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Thanks for the share. A few too many WRs for my tastes but I like the overall objective.

I get it, it's extreme. But I am trying to take advantage of the deepest WR class, probably ever, to help the Chiefs win next year and set up their next orientation of success. Cost controlled weapons at high value positions seems like the ticket to that success.

[Couch-Potato]

I like the concept a lot!

I really like Coleman, Sweat, Wilson, Guerendo, and Hall.

I think people are sleeping on Wilson as a hybrid or TE transition.

Coleman might be my top choice for a WR at #32, swapping Sneed for him would be a nice deal.

Good stuff!

[Nightfyre]

I feel like I got pretty close on the contract for Jones. Curious what years 4 and 5 look like. If they are both AAV inflators or if year 4 seems like a real year and year 5 is a void year.

[gordonelloyd]

I like it.

Especially like bringing in Smith and I hope we can get him at tackle.

Also, Lake Wilson at tight end in the draft and as can be a replacement for Kelsey and possibly allow us to use a two tight end package more often in the interim.

Not sure Coleman is the right answer as the number one pick for receiver, but there are different opinions on alternatives.

[duncan_idaho]

Man, good looking exercise. You were close on the Jones deal.

I have a hard time seeing them skew that heavy on receiving weapons early but two picks in that bucket from the first 4 seems reasonable/likely.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

I get it, it's extreme. But I am trying to take advantage of the deepest WR class, probably ever, to help the Chiefs win next year and set up their next orientation of success. Cost controlled weapons at high value positions seems like the ticket to that success.

I don't see the need for that many WRs though.

I doubt they leave free agency without a veteran addition. They are definitely keeping Watson around. You have Rice. I doubt they let both of Moore and Toney go on rookie contracts. You still have Ross floating around too. I'd say you have 4 absolutes. I could see them double-dipping but 3 or 4? I don't know about that. Other holes to fill, other long-term objectives.

Even though we re-signed Jones and Buggs, we still have work to do at DT. We could probably use a LB. We could probably use a DB. And then OT remains a question mark.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I don't see the need for that many WRs though.

I doubt they leave free agency without a veteran addition. They are definitely keeping Watson around. You have Rice. I doubt they let both of Moore and Toney go on rookie contracts. You still have Ross floating around too. I'd say you have 4 absolutes. I could see them double-dipping but 3 or 4? I don't know about that. Other holes to fill, other long-term objectives.

Even though we re-signed Jones and Buggs, we still have work to do at DT. We could probably use a LB. We could probably use a DB. And then OT remains a question mark.

Will Bryan Cook and Nazeeh Johnson be ready for camp, or week 1? That could give us wiggle room there. I think the call would be depth on either offensive or defensive line instead.

Agreed it's receiver heavy. I'd rather see one of those receiver picks go towards a flier on a smaller school athletic TE, but I'm not sure we need to do that just yet with Gray as the solid #2 and Bell/Bushman(maybe?) and Fortson still in the mix (IS Fortson still in the mix??). Mitchell and Coleman BOTH would piss off the rest of the league, lol.

[Nightfyre]

No one is obligated to agree or anything, but I left a roster with 8 WRs, including Ross and Toney. That is one WR over last year. I figure if Toney makes it to camp, he probably doesn't make the roster unless his head is on straight. It's true, I did not bring Watson back.

But with a historically deep wide receiver class, having the opportunity to set up the next iteration of Chiefs success was the goal:
Rookie WRs take time to get integrated into the Andy Reid offense. So we sign Noah Brown to provide an additional reliable target in the interim, and work on getting Mitchell focused on that Z tree.

This approach is the offensive mirror to the approach taken in the 2022 draft class to address the secondary - when they took 4 CBs and a Safety.

If the Chiefs don't go out and build the WR corps through free agency, they will have a lot more latitude to sign important, but less costly pieces for the future.

[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Will Bryan Cook and Nazeeh Johnson be ready for camp, or week 1? That could give us wiggle room there. I think the call would be depth on either offensive or defensive line instead.

Agreed it's receiver heavy. I'd rather see one of those receiver picks go towards a flier on a smaller school athletic TE, but I'm not sure we need to do that just yet with Gray as the solid #2 and Bell/Bushman(maybe?) and Fortson still in the mix (IS Fortson still in the mix??). Mitchell and Coleman BOTH would piss off the rest of the league, lol.

Also, please note that I took Johnny Wilson to be the athletic tight end. Watch him thinking about him that way instead of as a receiver and I think it changes how one might value him.

[CatfishBob2]

We've been clamoring for WRs in the draft to little avail even back to when Tyreek was here lol. Lots of talent in this draft to not take one early but I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't take one let alone two before the 4th lol

[Delano]

Swap out Kinlaw for Tart and Coleman for Patrick Paul and lfg

[Couch-Potato]

I like the idea of brining in T Smith and going with two WRs in the top 50 picks.