Official 2017 STL Cardinals Thread

[BigRedChief]

My as well get it started. Here's my "Matheny" lineup.....

Fowler CF
Diaz SS
Carpenter 1B
Piscotty RF
Grichuk LF
Molina C
Peralta 3B
Wong 2B
Pitcher

My "Matheny" Starting rotation

Martinez
Reyes
Wainwright
Lynn
Leake

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I'd be okay with 3 years of Stanton for those players. Assuming we are still going to be on the hook for $100 million at least, if he gets old and slow within those 3 years still seems like a high price. The Cardinals do have the money to have dead money on the books. They HAVE to do something to make the team better and loosen the log jam of prospects.

That offer leaves you on the hook for most, if not all of it. You're going to get very little salary relief if the most valuable chip you send back is Alcantara.

Which is why this will all come down to money. If Bill DeWitt demonstrates that he's committed to winning and is actually going to try to keep pace with teams like the Cubs and Dodgers, this deal can/should get made.

But just you wait - we'll get 'sniped' at the wire yet again. Because Mozeliak's gotten damn good at trying just hard enough to come in second. Sometimes you dodge the bullet on David Price; other times you watch Max Scherzer win multiple Cy Youngs for DC after growing up a Cardinals fan.

But hey, this is big boy baseball - gotta take chances or you'll just be the Pirates.

[BigRedChief]

Cardinals add Gomber, Mercado, O'Neill and reliever Derian Gonzalez to 40-man roster. Leaves them one spot.

DJ, who did we expose to the rule 5 draft this year that we will regret?

Sorry Raybec, that doesn't sound very optimistic does it.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Cardinals add Gomber, Mercado, O'Neill and reliever Derian Gonzalez to 40-man roster. Leaves them one spot.

DJ, who did we expose to the rule 5 draft this year that we will regret?

Nobody.

Wisdom will probably get taken but he's just another high strikeout, low walk power righthander with solid power in an organization that has a seemingly limitless supply of those.

He has some defensive versatility so I expect he'll get taken and squirreled away as a bench bat. I just don't see much use for him here. If he were left-handed, I'd be a little more annoyed.

Every time you'd see an article about 'Wisdom's new approach' he'd go into the tank for 3 weeks and make it look like it's less approach than it just him being a streaky hitter. I don't see much if any ceiling for him at this point. I'd have liked to see if they could've flipped him to some team at the back of the draft for some catcher or shortstop that can't hit a breaking ball who they could try to put on the mound and salvage an asset from, but shit happens.

This isn't like dicking up with Anthony Garcia and not protecting Allen Cordoba because of a bad gamble. I just don't think they had a need for Wisdom and he doesn't have the upside to keep him on the 40 man.

Mercado will be a major leaguer, IMO. Maybe not a great one, but I like him more than Sierra. O'Neill will probably make a squad in the near future as well due to his power and athleticism (another Grichuk type). Gonzalez could be stashed in a bullpen even though he's probably still further away than you'd like; that'll mean he needs to start developing fast as the team uses his options to get him down to the minors from the 40 man - the clock's started on him and he still hasn't pitched above High A.

Gomber could start for a handful of teams out there right now; though he'll likely never be more than a 4th/5th starter - lots of polish but not a lot of stuff. Really good frame, though and as a smart lefty with just enough stuff to get by, I could see him being a 180 inning, .500 pitcher. Maybe a Jon Neise type? Give a well-built lefty with a good head on his shoulders 3 solid pitches and you can get a lot out of him.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Nobody.

Wisdom will probably get taken but he's just another high strikeout, low walk power righthander with solid power in an organization that has a seemingly limitless supply of those.

He has some defensive versatility so I expect he'll get taken and squirreled away as a bench bat. I just don't see much use for him here. If he were left-handed, I'd be a little more annoyed.

Every time you'd see an article about 'Wisdom's new approach' he'd go into the tank for 3 weeks and make it look like it's less approach than it just him being a streaky hitter. I don't see much if any ceiling for him at this point. I'd have liked to see if they could've flipped him to some team at the back of the draft for some catcher or shortstop that can't hit a breaking ball who they could try to put on the mound and salvage an asset from, but shit happens.

This isn't like dicking up with Anthony Garcia and not protecting Allen Cordoba because of a bad gamble. I just don't think they had a need for Wisdom and he doesn't have the upside to keep him on the 40 man.

Mercado will be a major leaguer, IMO. Maybe not a great one, but I like him more than Sierra. O'Neill will probably make a squad in the near future as well due to his power and athleticism (another Grichuk type). Gonzalez could be stashed in a bullpen even though he's probably still further away than you'd like; that'll mean he needs to start developing fast as the team uses his options to get him down to the minors from the 40 man - the clock's started on him and he still hasn't pitched above High A.

Gomber could start for a handful of teams out there right now; though he'll likely never be more than a 4th/5th starter - lots of polish but not a lot of stuff. Really good frame, though and as a smart lefty with just enough stuff to get by, I could see him being a 180 inning, .500 pitcher. Maybe a Jon Neise type? Give a well-built lefty with a good head on his shoulders 3 solid pitches and you can get a lot out of him.

good info. Glad to hear. Don't have a lot of confidence in our front office right now.

[DJ's left nut]

Today in "trade musings born of slow mornings" I have decided to rebuild the entire Cardinals roster in an attempt to push in a bit for 2018.

What if the Cardinals got a wild hair and decided to trade for both Stanton AND Yelich? Do that and you have some parts you need to move around on the big league roster.

Stanton (and his contact), Yelich and Volquez (and his $13 million while being unlikely to pitch in '18 due to TJ surgery) for Reyes, Alcantara, Bader, Grichuk, Perez and Diaz.

Pham to the Yankees for Chad Green and Greg Bird.

Gyorko and Kelly to the Jays for Donaldson.

Piscotty to the Orioles for Mychel Givens

Carpenter to the Rangers for Keone Kela

All of those deals are extremely doable, right? From the Marlins perspective you'd be getting a ton of salary relief as well as immediate help and high-end prospects. It boils down to Alcantara, Grichuk and Diaz for Stanton and Reyes, Bader and Perez for Yelich and Volquez. That's a ton of young, controlled players plus about $40 million in immediate salary relief.

Pham to the Yankees for Bird and Green gets the Yankees some athleticism in the OF that they desperately need and a great complementary part to their young power hitters. They're likely to make a play on Hosmer so Bird would be blocked but I believe in his power and would like the lefty with thump at 1b. Green is among the best relievers in baseball that nobody seems to know about.

Gyorko and Kelly for Donaldson seems fair given that Donaldson is a year from FA and entering his age 32 season. Gyorko is 3 years younger and sporting a well below market contract for the next 3 years. He established himself as a legit regular last year, has a plus glove and would easily hit 30 bombs in Toronto. I'm actually reluctant to make this deal as I'm not sure we get much better but it would send a signal to the team and get a hell of a personality in the clubhouse. I'd want a negotiating window though; he'd come with a deal that covers his 32-36 seasons at about $110 million.

Piscotty would be interesting to the Orioles given his long-term deal and their issues in 2019 when they're going to struggle to field a team; a lot of their guys are coming up on FA and their pipeline is barren. I'm not positive you could get them to give up Givens, but their bullpen has so much depth that if they want to get some help in the field, they'll have to deal from there. They'd have to believe that 2017 was an outlier for Piscotty but there's plenty of cause to believe it was.

Carpenter for Kela would get the Rangers a little immediate firepower to make a push while Beltre is still sharp. They could use more production from DH and Carpenter would give them that in spades. His new fly-ball stroke would actually play well in Arlington.

Meanwhile the Cards system is diminished but not gutted. They'd still have Flaherty, Weaver, Hicks, Hudson and Gomber as well as guys like Woodford and Fernandez. On the offensive side they'd still have Sierra, Bader, Mercado, Sosa and Knizner (who may be making Kelly trade-able) as well as the slew of international signings like Arozarena. They'd need to go after Maitan, Pena, Del Rosario and Negret from the Braves exodus to back-fill but I think they could snag a couple of those guys. Get 2 of them and the system is probably still top 15 in baseball; top 20 at worst. With a big wave of guys in the high minors that can move things back up in the next 3-4 years.

Now your OF is Fowler - Yelich - Stanton and your IF is Donaldson - DeJong - Wong - Bird (with Martinez as the other half of that platoon).

Your rotation is Martinez, Wacha, Wainwright, Weaver and Flaherty and I think you'd need to pursue Tyler Chatwood in FA; he'd bump Flaherty with Flaherty in reserve for Wainwright's eventual implosion.

Your bullpen might be the best collection of young power arms in baseball with Givens, Kela, Green, Tuiviala, Brebbia, Lyons and Cecil

Lineup:

Fowler
DeJong (yes, this seems crazy but he'd get so many pitches to hit here)
Yelich
Stanton
Donaldson
Bird
Molina
Wong
P

Seriously - that team can win a championship, right? You're counting on growth from the young arms but that core is a contender for 3 years while those arms come together.

After accounting for losses from last year's roster and trades, it moves the payroll from about $135 million in '17 to about $165 million in '18 (made a few arb projections and figured on the minimum for the pre-arb guys; backloaded Chatwood's deal so he's getting $7 million in '18); that would've placed the Cardinals 10th in MLB last year. I suspect it would put them around 12th for '18.

With the new cable deal and the fanbase/support this team has, they absolutely owe us that. That's not unreasonable at all and when Wainwright/Volquez fall off the payroll in 2019, they'll have plenty more money freed up.

Ah, **** it. That's too interesting for this organization. But it sure would be fun.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Maybe in MLB the Show

[Pasta Little Brioni]

I do want flash in the Pham gone though.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

Maybe in MLB the Show

Oh, I know, nothing even remotely resembling that will happen.

But explain to me why each of those moves couldn't/shouldn't?

In a vacuum, the only one of those trades that I think you could say the Cardinals clearly 'win' is the Piscotty/Givens swap and even that is open for debate; the Orioles get far more ceiling there. Otherwise there's not a single one of those moves that, if it happened, you'd think "man, the Cardinals screwed those guys..." and for a couple of them you could argue that the Cards are getting jobbed.

Our GM is a chickenshit but lets not act like Whitey Herzog didn't pull essentially this exact stunt when he took over the squad in the early 80s. It can be done. It has been done. But it took a creative, bold GM to do it.

Mozeliak ain't that guy.

[oldandslow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Oh, I know, nothing even remotely resembling that will happen....

....Mozeliak ain't that guy.

Mo is an overpaid Dal Maxville. Period. Little initiative, no imagination.

[BigRedChief]

I thought Kelly was the best catching prospect in baseball. Plus you throw in a PH with pop off the bench. Is that the market value for 1 year of Donaldson?

I don't like giving up Reyes in any deal. Pitchers with #1 starter ceilings are hard to get, why give up one?

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Blow it up and trade all those marginal guys like Pham for prospects...

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I thought Kelly was the best catching prospect in baseball. Plus you throw in a PH with pop off the bench. Is that the market value for 1 year of Donaldson?

I don't like giving up Reyes in any deal. Pitchers with #1 starter ceilings are hard to get, why give up one?

Yeah, Kelly's probably the top catching prospect in baseball but that has more to do with his floor than his ceiling. Kelly's a defensive catching prospect; a guy that's absolutely going to be a major league starter someday, somewhere. So yes, he has value. But when you compare him to guys like Sanchez or Contreras before him and perhaps someone like Fransisco Mejia behind him, you see those guys as being more 'splash' prospects that carry more value. Kelly won't ever be an anchor tenant on a championship team, IMO; more of a 4th-5th best guy. I'd say you're looking at a Tucker Barnhart or Jason Castro kind of player rather than a Buster Posey. Those are nice players and clear starting caliber guys, but they're not guys you blow up a trade for an MVP caliber player for.

Worse still, Molina's going to be the C here for at least 2 more years so you diminish Kelly's value to the organization a little more. Finally, with Knizner showing the ability to perhaps be a premier offensive C prospect with a glove that will allow him to stay behind the plate, he makes Kelly a bit more disposable. Additionally, Donaldson appears to love it in Toronto and would likely be willing to extend there. The Jays could well want to build around him going forward with Bautista almost certainly gone. As for his 1 yr before FA, well that's why I'd want to get that window. Without an extension I don't think you can make the move if for no other reason than the fact that I think Gyorko is a very good player in his own right.

But the Cardinals have a decided lack of elite players on this roster and they need to get some. Donaldson could be that guy and he's fanatical enough about his conditioning that it's not impossible to see him be a Beltre type that ages well. With the Jays not really needing to move him and him not really desperate to be moved, the price is going to be a little higher. That all being said, I already acknowledged that it's not a slam-dunk move; but if you make that deal, this team is significantly better for the next 3 seasons and if Knizner is the real deal, there's little/no long-term harm done.

As for Reyes, we've already burned a year of service time there and he'll spend next year shaking rust off and getting back to form; I doubt he'll be in the rotation. So you're looking at 4 years of 'good' service time from him. With his TJ and the risk that the mechanical changes that gave him a velocity boost (thus spiked his value) also caused the elbow to let go, you have to reconsider his ceiling. Is he really a #1? Or will tweaks be needed to keep him healthy that give back some of that velocity and make him more of a good #2? Let's say for the sake of argument that he is a 1 - you'll get 4 years of him at below market before he's due big money in FA. Meanwhile you'd be getting 5 years of Yelich, who's probably among the top 15 OFers in baseball, at below market value in exchange.

If Reyes is going to be dealt, Yelich is the kind of player you deal him for. He's much lower risk, his ceiling might be just as high (Yelich is a 4-5 WAR player just entering his prime) and he's a perfect complementary part. I wouldn't want to make that deal if it isn't part of Stanton coming across as well, but if you get Stanton, then you easily make the Reyes/Yelich swap because it is at least even from a value for value standpoint while also making Stanton more productive.

[DJ's left nut]

Honestly, I look at that squad and see a team that's about 11-12 wins better than last year's model. Now that assumes health, but the guys that are being replaced (Grichuk, Pham, Gyorko, Carpenter) weren't exactly pillars of health/reliability in their own right.

It also assumes that Martinez/Bird can give you 3-4 WAR next season and I confess to being a prospect honk there. I've liked Bird for a long time. His spring showed that his shoulder was healthy and when he came back from the ankle injury in September, he looked back on a breakout path. I believe in the guy. Additionally I think Martinez is just a professional hitter and if you had him in a platoon role, he'd absolutely murder LH pitching and could put up 1.5 WAR in just 200 ABs or so against them. I don't think they'd struggle to replace Carpenter's production at 1b.

Stanton + Yelich = +6 wins over Grichuk/Pham
Green + Givens + Kela = +4 wins over the parade of a dozen mediocre relievers
Donaldson + Platoon = +2 wins over Carpenter/Gyrko

With Weaver replacing Lynn and Chatwood replacing Leake, I don't see any real step down in the rotation either.

If you can gain 12 wins at the cost of a $30-$35 million payroll boost, you're absolutely murdering the market. You make that move every time. And the system still has ample depth to round out a decent bench and keep reserves in Memphis for injury.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah, Kelly's probably the top catching prospect in baseball but that has more to do with his floor than his ceiling. Kelly's a defensive catching prospect; a guy that's absolutely going to be a major league starter someday, somewhere. So yes, he has value. But when you compare him to guys like Sanchez or Contreras before him and perhaps someone like Fransisco Mejia behind him, you see those guys as being more 'splash' prospects that carry more value. Kelly won't ever be an anchor tenant on a championship team, IMO; more of a 4th-5th best guy. I'd say you're looking at a Tucker Barnhart or Jason Castro kind of player rather than a Buster Posey. Those are nice players and clear starting caliber guys, but they're not guys you blow up a trade for an MVP caliber player for.

Worse still, Molina's going to be the C here for at least 2 more years so you diminish Kelly's value to the organization a little more. Finally, with Knizner showing the ability to perhaps be a premier offensive C prospect with a glove that will allow him to stay behind the plate, he makes Kelly a bit more disposable. Additionally, Donaldson appears to love it in Toronto and would likely be willing to extend there. The Jays could well want to build around him going forward with Bautista almost certainly gone. As for his 1 yr before FA, well that's why I'd want to get that window. Without an extension I don't think you can make the move if for no other reason than the fact that I think Gyorko is a very good player in his own right.

But the Cardinals have a decided lack of elite players on this roster and they need to get some. Donaldson could be that guy and he's fanatical enough about his conditioning that it's not impossible to see him be a Beltre type that ages well. With the Jays not really needing to move him and him not really desperate to be moved, the price is going to be a little higher. That all being said, I already acknowledged that it's not a slam-dunk move; but if you make that deal, this team is significantly better for the next 3 seasons and if Knizner is the real deal, there's little/no long-term harm done.

As for Reyes, we've already burned a year of service time there and he'll spend next year shaking rust off and getting back to form; I doubt he'll be in the rotation. So you're looking at 4 years of 'good' service time from him. With his TJ and the risk that the mechanical changes that gave him a velocity boost (thus spiked his value) also caused the elbow to let go, you have to reconsider his ceiling. Is he really a #1? Or will tweaks be needed to keep him healthy that give back some of that velocity and make him more of a good #2? Let's say for the sake of argument that he is a 1 - you'll get 4 years of him at below market before he's due big money in FA. Meanwhile you'd be getting 5 years of Yelich, who's probably among the top 15 OFers in baseball, at below market value in exchange.

If Reyes is going to be dealt, Yelich is the kind of player you deal him for. He's much lower risk, his ceiling might be just as high (Yelich is a 4-5 WAR player just entering his prime) and he's a perfect complementary part. I wouldn't want to make that deal if it isn't part of Stanton coming across as well, but if you get Stanton, then you easily make the Reyes/Yelich swap because it is at least even from a value for value standpoint while also making Stanton more productive.

Great comments and just wanted to give you kudos for it. I agree, especially with the perspective on Alex Reyes.

One note on C prospects: I think we're going to se Mejiia as a top 10-20 guy in every list this year. He's not the defender Kelly is but he does have Posey, lineup anchor upside, a high floor, and is just as close to MLB.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Great comments and just wanted to give you kudos for it. I agree, especially with the perspective on Alex Reyes.

One note on C prospects: I think we're going to se Mejiia as a top 10-20 guy in every list this year. He's not the defender Kelly is but he does have Posey, lineup anchor upside, a high floor, and is just as close to MLB.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, I think Mejia will go way up. I don't think he's as close to MLB from a defensive standpoint so I don't think you could plug him in and start him yet whereas I think Kelly could start for about half the teams in the league right now.

But Mejia's definitely on the come. A switch hitting catcher with 25 HR thump and an advanced approach as a 21 yr old in AA is going to turn heads for certain. I'd trade Kelly for him if offered because I value the ceiling but I can't imagine the Indians would do so. They can wait another year or two before handing him the keys while he polishes up the rough edges on his defense.

Yan Gomes is just competent enough that they wouldn't need to make a panic move to fill a hole. But man, if the Cards could convince them that Kelly would make them better immediately and we could squirrel Mejia away for another year while we wait for Molina to ride out his legacy deal, that would sure be sweet.