ESPN Playoff Machine

[RINGLEADER]

It's back...

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by Dante84

Opposing teams could also stay on-site in a safe environment and not have to worry about hotel BS or randos sneaking in at night, pulling the fire alarm, etc...

Collective bargaining agreement they have to stay in certain star rated hotels on the road

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by JudasRising20

One major dud? Wouldn't both the Atlanta and New York games be major duds? Back-to-back weeks. They're trending down, especially from what I've seen of their defense.

Washington has won three in a row. The two games before the win streak, they lost by three points in each game. Here are Smith's passing stats the last five games:

325 yards vs. New York
390 yards vs. Detroit
166 yards vs. Cincinnati
149 yards vs. Dallas
296 yards vs. Pittsburgh

He's had some low yardage games, but also some impressive showings. They ran the ball well against Dallas and took advantage of turnovers. He didn't need to pass much. In fact, he threw only 51 passes combined in the wins against Dallas and Cincinnati. When he has thrown, I wouldn't say he's having trouble completing "a pass". He certainly wasn't having any trouble in the second half yesterday.

It's kind of hard to describe a win as a major dud. And there's no reason to believe that Vegas is suddenly a vastly different team than the one that handed the Chiefs their only loss in 20 or whatever games, then nearly pulled it off again. Or that beat the best team in the NFC by double digits. Do you see Washington being capable of doing those things? Be honest.

Yes, Smith threw for 390 awhile ago. On 55 attempts. With 0 TDs. Yes, he threw for 325 as well. With 3 picks.

He has 4 TDs and 5 picks on the year.

I wouldn't say he's done anything overly impressive this year. The Pittsburgh game was probably his best overall, and even then, he checked down on every throw in the first half. Luckily, he's got a very good D that continuously shut the opposing team down and set him up with good field position.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I'm always amazed that people don't see the value in the bye. Even if you think we're 70% likely to win every game (which is pretty generous in the playoffs), getting the bye instantly boosts our chances of winning the Super Bowl by 43%. That's huge (and the benefit only increases if you think we're less than 70% likely to win each game).

Maybe people just have faith in Mahomes and the staff?

Worrying non-stop about the bye seems like a very pre-Mahomes era thing to do. Especially with little to no home field advantage this year.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Smith had nearly 300 yards against the "vaunted" Pittsburgh defense.

The Raiders are paper tigers, as usual.

Putting "vaunted" in quotes just helps to prove my point for me. Their defense is overrated. The Chiefs had the best defensive numbers in the league in the second half of last season, due mostly to competition. Amazing what it can do for your numbers to face Garrett Gilbert, Jeff Driskel, Daniel Jones, RG3, Jake Luton, etc.

Smith made a couple nice throws amidst a sea of checkdowns. Got a lot of YAC on a few of those checkdowns. His team punted or turned it over on downs on 8 of their first 10 drives for God's sake. And barely moved the ball at all on those possessions. He's lucky he wasn't down by 3+ TDs at that point.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

Maybe people just have faith in Mahomes and the staff?

Worrying non-stop about the bye seems like a very pre-Mahomes era thing to do. Especially with little to no home field advantage this year.

Mahomes doesn't overcome injuries. Playing an extra game is just playing with fire.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Updated predictions after going through final 3 weeks of the playoff machine:

Wild Card:

Saints (2) over Cardinals (7) Although this has upset potential
Rams (3) over Seahawks (6)
Tampa Bay (5) over Washington (4)

Bills (2) over Browns (7)
Ravens (6) over Steelers (3)
Colts (5) over Titans (4)

Divisional:
Rams (3) over Saints (2)
Green Bay (1) over Tampa Bay (5) I think TB would have a good shot but give GB the edge b/c of bye and cold weather...

Chiefs (1) over Ravens (6)
Bills (2) over Colts (5)

Conference:
Green Bay (1) over Rams (3) Weather again the deciding factor for me
Chiefs (1) over Bills (2)

SB LV:
Chiefs (1) over Packers (1)

[KChiefs1]

[Halfcan]

I bet Peter King like an Internal Disruptor!

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Updated predictions after going through final 3 weeks of the playoff machine:

Wild Card:

Saints (2) over Cardinals (7) Although this has upset potential
Rams (3) over Seahawks (6)
Tampa Bay (5) over Washington (4)

Bills (2) over Browns (7)
Ravens (6) over Steelers (3)
Colts (5) over Titans (4)

Divisional:
Rams (3) over Saints (2)
Green Bay (1) over Tampa Bay (5) I think TB would have a good shot but give GB the edge b/c of bye and cold weather...

Chiefs (1) over Ravens (6)
Bills (2) over Colts (5)

Conference:
Green Bay (1) over Rams (3) Weather again the deciding factor for me
Chiefs (1) over Bills (2)

SB LV:
Chiefs (1) over Packers (1)

I like it! fingers crossed!

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

So Chiefs can clinch AFC's top playoff seed and the first-round playoff bye this weekend. Broncos over Bills, Bengals over Steelers and Chiefs over Saints would be quite a trifecta, though. https://t.co/z26LwXgt4G

— Adam Teicher (@adamteicher) December 15, 2020

[Go Royals]

Originally Posted by ShowtimeSBMVP

So Chiefs can clinch AFC's top playoff seed and the first-round playoff bye this weekend. Broncos over Bills, Bengals over Steelers and Chiefs over Saints would be quite a trifecta, though. https://t.co/z26LwXgt4G

— Adam Teicher (@adamteicher) December 15, 2020

I'm tryin to figure out how Buffalo factors at all?

If we win we'll be 13-1 and have the tiebreaker over them. They best they could do is 13-3 and with a win this week the worst we could do is 13-3?

Is there some tiebreaker I'm missing?

[TomBarndtsTwin]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Mahomes doesn't overcome injuries. Playing an extra game is just playing with fire.

This.

It's not about the home field advantage. In fact, I can make a strong argument that the Chiefs are a better team on the road this year than they are at home. Most of their big 'statement' wins have been on the road.

It's all about that extra week off, giving guys more rest, healing from injuries, and the long mental grind of this COVID season. So getting that bye is a BIG advantage over other teams.

And, again, having to only win 2 games to get to the Super Bowl, is a lot less wear and tear on a team that late in the season than having to win 3.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

This.

It's not about the home field advantage. In fact, I can make a strong argument that the Chiefs are a better team on the road this year than they are at home. Most of their big 'statement' wins have been on the road.

It's all about that extra week off, giving guys more rest, healing from injuries, and the long mental grind of this COVID season. So getting that bye is a BIG advantage over other teams.

And, again, having to only win 2 games to get to the Super Bowl, is a lot less wear and tear on a team that late in the season than having to win 3.

THIS! HFA ain't much this year. The week off to heal. 1 less game to have an injury to a core player. Thats the big deal this year.

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

Originally Posted by Go Royals

I'm tryin to figure out how Buffalo factors at all?

If we win we'll be 13-1 and have the tiebreaker over them. They best they could do is 13-3 and with a win this week the worst we could do is 13-3?

Is there some tiebreaker I'm missing?

I know 3 way tie breakers are different.

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by ShowtimeSBMVP

I know 3 way tie breakers are different.

Just like a 3 way. Somebody ultimately gets left out.