***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[tyecopeland]

Originally Posted by HUMONGOUS BONEREATER

I'm busy with that lemon party site right now but thanks!

You might also like 2 girls 1 cup then.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Well at least this means we should probably have a good idea in two weeks if deaths really are lower this time around - due to younger/less at-risk demographics. When NYC had a big spike like this, deaths started spiking about 2 weeks later. But a spike in ventilator usage is not a good sign for that.

With the overall group being younger this time you'd hope so, otherwise that's going to be a very bad thing.

The other hope is now we actually have at least a little more knowledge about treatments that work/don't work. Which is another reason the Sweden model was dumb.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by tk13

With the overall group being younger this time you'd hope so, otherwise that's going to be a very bad thing.

The other hope is now we actually have at least a little more knowledge about treatments that work/don't work. Which is another reason the Sweden model was dumb.

It seems almost certain that the leading edge of this wave skews young - depending on the region. The big open question to me is how much will it drift back towards a more representative demographic over successive generations of people passing the virus along.

You'd have to think it won't go fully back as most older/at-risk people aren't being blindsided this time like they were in N. Italy/NYC.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by tk13

With the overall group being younger this time you'd hope so, otherwise that's going to be a very bad thing.

The other hope is now we actually have at least a little more knowledge about treatments that work/don't work. Which is another reason the Sweden model was dumb.

I am not so sure what is so special about today when cases actually started rising back around June 12th? Why people are picking today as the day to start looking forward seems rather arbitrary. And I have seen a few reports of different people using today and some kind of marker.

June 12th was the day with the highest cases since May 21st. We have seen a steady rise in cases since then. That was going on 4 weeks ago. Thankfully there hasn't been much of any upward move in deaths. I understand deaths lag but in the past we would have seen some movement to the upside even if it wasn't a spike by now.

And hopefully if deaths rise it is just that, a rise and not a spike. Though I doubt some will make any effort to distinguish the two.

[cdcox]

The Washington University model predicts that non-mask wearers will kill 35,000 Americans between now and November.

[eDave]

Hot day today.

Cases: At our current rate of growth, we will hit 150,000 cases on or before July 20th.

Testing: PCR Testing went up by about 1.2K since yesterday.

Spread: Overall PCR positive test percentage went up from 13.6% to 13.7% (based on 640K tests, up from a 6.6% low) and the average for this week went up from 19% to 25% (based on 2,684 cases, up from 22% the previous week).

Hospital Bed Usage & Availability: COVID Hospitalizations went up 2% (another all time high). ICU beds for COVID patients stayed flat (Overall ICU bed usage went up 90% to 91%). Ventilators in use for COVID went up nearly 5%. Intubations for Respiratory Distress hit an all time high (121).

Data Source: ADHS

Charts: Press Here

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by eDave

Hot day today.

Cases: At our current rate of growth, we will hit 150,000 cases on or before July 20th.

Testing: PCR Testing went up by about 1.2K since yesterday.

Spread: Overall PCR positive test percentage went up from 13.6% to 13.7% (based on 640K tests, up from a 6.6% low) and the average for this week went up from 19% to 25% (based on 2,684 cases, up from 22% the previous week).

Hospital Utilization: COVID Hospitalizations went up 2% (another all time high). ICU beds for COVID patients stayed flat (Overall ICU bed usage went up 90% to 91%). Ventilators in use for COVID went up nearly 5%. Intubations for Respiratory Distress hit an all time high (121).

Data Source: ADHS

Charts: Press Here

When you select Hospitalizations on their dashboard it looks like they have really dropped off. What gives?

[eDave]

Originally Posted by petegz28

When you select Hospitalizations on their dashboard it looks like they have really dropped off. What gives?

You are not utilizing the correct link, my man. It's current utilization, not daily hospitalizations.

[suzzer99]

From a Seattle ICU doctor on another forum:

Yeah, olds are protecting themselves better, so lower average age of people needing vents. Better treatment protocols for the virus itself. Better medical management of the disease processes. Heart damage and micro clotting were a huge surprise at the beginning of this thing. Now we are treating those things before they become issues.

We are also flat out getting better at all the daily shit we need to do. Dialysis in isolation rooms, proning, putting in arterial and central lines, having IV pumps and ventilator controls outside the room for quick access, transporting isolation patients to ct, mri, or surgery, and a hundred other little things. Shit that used to be a giant production for covid patients (if they were done at all) are being done in basically the same amount of time it takes for a normal patient.

I asked him if he knew anything about the prevalence of long term health issues in the people who get off vents or come out of the ICU. He doesn't unfortunately.

[Donger]

White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx said Wednesday that the Trump administration is seeing some “encouraging” trends in Arizona, Texas and Florida — three of the hotspot states seeing a surge of coronavirus cases across the sunbelt.

“The seven-day average (of coronavirus cases in Arizona) is showing some flattening and I find that encouraging. Also, equally encouraging at this point, because we know that the test positivity rate is the first thing to increase and we’re hoping that it heralds a stability in Arizona of at least reaching a plateau in their curve,” Birx said.

Birx also referenced a stabilizing of emergency room visits for Covid-19-like symptoms in Arizona, calling it “an early indicator and we find that encouraging.”

Similarly, in Florida, Birx said, they are starting to see “early suggestions of decreasing emergency room visits for the symptoms of Covid and some stability starting in that (test positivity rate) hoping that heralds a stability in the number of daily reported cases.”

However, CNN's health team notes that they are not hearing the same when it comes to hospitalizations.

“We also understand that we went through a holiday weekend and holiday weekends can impact data on both ends — underreporting through the weekend and catch up reporting on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday after a holiday weekend,” she added.

“Texas is in a similar situation with their (test positivity rate),” Birx said.

[Donger]

People living in states with coronavirus surges should return to the White House's original "phase one" recommendations on gatherings, Dr. Deborah Birx said on Wednesday.

Citing guidelines like wearing face masks and avoiding bars and indoor events, Birx said those steps should be resumed in order to bring cases back under control.

She said they are "asking the American people in those counties and in those states to not only use those face coverings, not going to bars, not going to indoor dining, but really not gathering in homes either. And decreasing those gatherings back down to our phase one recommendation, which was 10 or less."

Birx touted the importance of mask-wearing and said "any kind of indoor gathering" should be avoided in places experiencing a spike in cases.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

From a Seattle ICU doctor on another forum:



I asked him if he knew anything about the prevalence of long term health issues in the people who get off vents or come out of the ICU. He doesn't unfortunately.

I suspected as much, the virus is still as infectious\deadly as it ever was but we are just getting better at treating it thanks to Italy\NY being basically the guinea pigs.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by Donger

People living in states with coronavirus surges should return to the White House's original "phase one" recommendations on gatherings, Dr. Deborah Birx said on Wednesday.

Citing guidelines like wearing face masks and avoiding bars and indoor events, Birx said those steps should be resumed in order to bring cases back under control.

She said they are "asking the American people in those counties and in those states to not only use those face coverings, not going to bars, not going to indoor dining, but really not gathering in homes either. And decreasing those gatherings back down to our phase one recommendation, which was 10 or less."

Birx touted the importance of mask-wearing and said "any kind of indoor gathering" should be avoided in places experiencing a spike in cases.

The rest of the PC was pushing for school openings under the threat of financial repercussions. Bizarre shit.

[Donger]

(CNN)The worsening coronavirus pandemic hit a series of somber peaks across the United States on Tuesday, renewing fears that more hospitals could be overloaded with Covid-19 patients.

At least 56 intensive care units in Florida hospitals reached capacity on Tuesday, state officials said. Another 35 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less, according to the Agency for Health Care Administration in that state.

Georgia surpassed 100,000 reported coronavirus cases, becoming the ninth state to pass the mark.

In California, the number of hospitalizations across the state were at an all-time high and the virus positivity rate jumped more than 2% in Los Angeles.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

(CNN)The worsening coronavirus pandemic hit a series of somber peaks across the United States on Tuesday, renewing fears that more hospitals could be overloaded with Covid-19 patients.

At least 56 intensive care units in Florida hospitals reached capacity on Tuesday, state officials said. Another 35 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less, according to the Agency for Health Care Administration in that state.

Georgia surpassed 100,000 reported coronavirus cases, becoming the ninth state to pass the mark.

In California, the number of hospitalizations across the state were at an all-time high and the virus positivity rate jumped more than 2% in Los Angeles.

Seeing the positivity rates in these "hot spots" is astounding.