***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

According to this the trend looks more or less the same as early April in Texas.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trum...s-have-1503184

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

No he is not a moron and he is talking about his employees and players. You can't have contact sports without daily testing. You know that right?

Ne he was talking about the country as a whole not just sports.

“We have to get to that point where the White House standard becomes the national standard, I think, in order for consumers to feel safe going out, in order for employers to feel completely safe bringing people back to work,” Cuban said on “Squawk Box.” “I think we can get there, I just don’t know when.”

[TLO]

Originally Posted by KC_Lee

Given that the virus has a reported two week incubation period an increase in new cases a day after the state begins opening back up really is not correlated.

The average is like 5 days. 14 is the extreme outlier.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by KC_Lee

Given that the virus has a reported two week incubation period an increase in new cases a day after the state begins opening back up really is not correlated.

That's fine and all but can anyone really make an argument that until numbers are going down consistently opening things is probably not a great idea?

[tk13]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

There may never be an effective/scalable vaccine, but society must re-open and go back to normal and not some bullshit “new normal”.

During the 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu Pandemic which killed 100,000+ Americans (mostly ages 65+) and had an R0 comparable to COVID-19 (1.06-2.06 during the first wave and 1.21-3.58 during the second wave), there was no “social distancing” or lockdowns.

Instead America went on with their lives and historical events such as Woodstock, and millions gathering to watch and celebrate Neil Armstrong walk on the moon took place.

Meanwhile 50 years later people are now locked in their homes and afraid to get a haircut.

I do think it's funny how throughout this thread is you keeping moving the goalposts on this as the death rate keeps climbing.

At first, it was how H1N1 killed 12,000 in a year, and COVID was no where near that. No big deal. This is overblown.

Then when it went higher than that, it was the seasonal flu, and how that kills up to 60,000 people. More than COVID, this is overblown.

Now we've shot past that, and it's the 1968 flu. That killed 100,000 Americans. That was way worse than this, this is overblown. We need to reopen.

Two months from now: "Well 675,000 Americans died in the 1918 flu. That's more than have died in COVID. This is overblown. Things need to re-open."

Two years from now: "Well the Black Death killed 50 million people. That's more than have died from COVID. They went on with their lives. This is totally overblown."

Five years from now: "Well, 8 people survived the Great Flood in the book of Genesis, and there are 15 people alive today. See! This is overblown! We need to re-open society! I can't wait to go to Starbucks!"

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by The PMII Hypothesis

The table showing odds ratio of COVID positivity in their patient population on the basis of blood type is as follows. COVID still happens in all blood types, but there do appear to be modest-but-real effects of blood type on risk.



https://twitter.com/vitamin_kt/statu...760814080?s=21

I don't know if the difference is terribly meaningful given that there was no statistical significance between blood type and odds of intubation or death.

If there's no morbidity or mortality benefit it's more of a factoid than something of clinical significance.

[Kidd Lex]

https://www.livescience.com/why-covi...me-people.html

Article on risk factors. T2D is looking to be a big one. No surprise, blood sugar is key to so many chronic diseases.

[KC_Lee]

Originally Posted by TLO

The average is like 5 days. 14 is the extreme outlier.

Ok let's say 5 days, how does an increase is confirmed cases one day after a state starts opening up correlate?

A better metric would be new cases / number of tests administered in the days after a state starts opening.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Mecca

That's fine and all but can anyone really make an argument that until numbers are going down consistently opening things is probably not a great idea?

Karen really wants to get her nails done.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by tk13

I do think it's funny how throughout this thread is you keeping moving the goalposts on this as the death rate keeps climbing.

At first, it was how H1N1 killed 12,000 in a year, and COVID was no where near that. No big deal. This is overblown.

Then when it went higher than that, it was the seasonal flu, and how that kills up to 60,000 people. More than COVID, this is overblown.

Now we've shot past that, and it's the 1968 flu. That killed 100,000 Americans. That was way worse than this, this is overblown. We need to reopen.

Two months from now: "Well 675,000 Americans died in the 1918 flu. That's more than have died in COVID. This is overblown. Things need to re-open."

Two years from now: "Well the Black Death killed 50 million people. That's more than have died from COVID. They went on with their lives. This is totally overblown."

Five years from now: "Well, 8 people survived the Great Flood in the book of Genesis, and there are 15 people alive today. See! This is overblown! We need to re-open society! I can't wait to go to Starbucks!"

Ok your post made me crack up laughing cause that really sums up his posting, that and having a soda and doing a line of coke are equal.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Karen really wants to get her nails done.

That and haircuts, in the words of George Carlin put on a hat you shallow ****.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Mecca

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trum...s-have-1503184

The question is are the increase following the same pattern or is there a new spike?

Notice Texas wasn't mentioned in the article you linked.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

If you view prevention of the healthcare system collapsing from surge and 1-2 million excess deaths as futile...

I’m not saying it is futile. I don’t believe that at this moment. I’m again talking about the hypothetical of things not getting any better for months despite these efforts. If that’s the case, and this thing has been here for as long as we now believe, then yes I don’t believe it made as big of a difference as we hope/believe.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

The question is are the increase following the same pattern or is there a new spike?

Notice Texas wasn't mentioned in the article you linked.

I'm aware, I was pointing out that a lot of states are still seeing increases.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by staylor26

I’m not arguing that. We’re clearly talking about the hypothetical of things not getting any better for months.

Of course I believe it has helped, if only because it’s my hope.

You don't really need hope, if you have logic.