***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Donger

Then the R0 isn't truly below 1 in those areas.

This is not correct. You can still have new cases when the R0 is below 1, but the number of new cases will decrease over time.

Let's say R0 is 0.8 and there are 100 people who have the disease. For simplicity we'll also assume that germination time for the disease is a week.


100 people will pass it to 80 the following week.
The 80 people will pass it to 64 the following week.
The 64 will pass it to 51 the following week and so on until there are no new cases several weeks down the road.

In comparison if R0 is 1.2 then

100 people will pass it to 120 the following week.
120 people will pass it to 144 the following week.
144 people will pass it to 173 the following week and so on. The number of new cases will grow without bounds until you start running out of people to infect.

[TinyEvel]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Here's a nice scoreboard of vaccines in development.

I hate to say this, but I'm not sure that I trust a Chinese-developed vaccine. I'm hoping one of the American or European countries gets there first.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...e-to-a-vaccine

Every other country the vaccine will be free. In the US it will probably be $1,000

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Here's a nice scoreboard of vaccines in development.

I hate to say this, but I'm not sure that I trust a Chinese-developed vaccine. I'm hoping one of the American or European countries gets there first.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...e-to-a-vaccine

I'm sure the vaccine no matter what country it comes from will be fine to use. They are going to test the hell out of it especially if it comes from China.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by cdcox

This is not correct. You can still have new cases when the R0 is below 1, but the number of new cases will decrease over time.

Let's say R0 is 0.8 and there are 100 people who have the disease. For simplicity we'll also assume that germination time for the disease is a week.


100 people will pass it to 80 the following week.
The 80 people will pass it to 64 the following week.
The 64 will pass it to 51 the following week and so on until there are no new cases several weeks down the road.

In comparison if R0 is 1.2 then

100 people will pass it to 120 the following week.
120 people will pass it to 144 the following week.
144 people will pass it to 173 the following week and so on. The number of new cases will grow without bounds until you start running out of people to infect.

I stand corrected. Thank you.

[F150]

Originally Posted by TinyEvel

Every other country the vaccine will be free. In the US it will probably be $1,000

Probably not true at all

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Here's a nice scoreboard of vaccines in development.

I hate to say this, but I'm not sure that I trust a Chinese-developed vaccine. I'm hoping one of the American or European countries gets there first.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...e-to-a-vaccine

So, how long does Phase 3 takes?

Seems like the first 2 phases would take a couple months each, all things considered.

[Bob Dole]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Here's a nice scoreboard of vaccines in development.

I hate to say this, but I'm not sure that I trust a Chinese-developed vaccine. I'm hoping one of the American or European countries gets there first.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...e-to-a-vaccine

China was leading the research on this shit before it all started.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk

So, how long does Phase 3 takes?

Seems like the first 2 phases would take a couple months each, all things considered.

Normally, years, (as do Phase I and II), but this is not normal.

[O.city]

So they’re now thinking 40% of infections are asymptomatic.

Makes me wonder, do we know if influenza ever has asymptomatic cases? Not trying to be a flu bro, or whatever, just curious. I’m hopeful this whole ordeal will open our eyes to a lot of infectious diseases and how we can more combat them

[Donger]

15,300 new cases in Florida

[BigBeauford]

Florida reports a staggering 15,300 new coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours.

This is the highest single-day increase any state has ever reported since the pandemic began.

— Jesse Rodriguez (@JesseRodriguez) July 12, 2020

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by Donger

15,300 new cases in Florida

I saw that. Low deaths so far. Miami-Dade was 3600 by itself. Weekend numbers for cases don't seem to be coming in low like had been typical

[Donger]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

I saw that. Low deaths so far. Miami-Dade was 3600 by itself. Weekend numbers for cases don't seem to be coming in low like had been typical

Their deaths have spiked over the last week, unfortunately.

[Donger]

Florida has a positivity of 20% New York is 1%

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by O.city

So they’re now thinking 40% of infections are asymptomatic.

Makes me wonder, do we know if influenza ever has asymptomatic cases? Not trying to be a flu bro, or whatever, just curious. I’m hopeful this whole ordeal will open our eyes to a lot of infectious diseases and how we can more combat them

I've read they think influenza could be asymptomatic in 60-70% of cases, give or take, and I believe that was the original ballpark of Covid, with I'm sure some assumptions of similarity in that regard.... I hadn't known that a while back, so at one time my reasoning for not getting a flu shot was that I never got/get the flu.