ChiefsPlanet - View Single Post - Cardinals ****The Official 2019 STL Cardinals Thread****

**BigRedChief** · 02-03-2019, 01:05 PM

Bernie’s take on the 2019 bullpen options from the Athletic

right now, the Cardinals have significant manpower in their pitching department.

Let’s review.

Right-handed relievers

Jordan Hicks
John Brebbia
Dominic Leone
Dakota Hudson
Alex Reyes
Mike Mayers
Daniel Poncedeleon
Luke Gregerson
Giovanny Gallegos
Ryan Helsley
John Gant

Relevant notes:

Gant, Hudson, Reyes and Poncedeleon could, in theory, could be in the competition for a rotation spot.

The young Reyes has the intimidating talent to become a massive bullpen weapon. But after enduring two consecutive seasons lost to injury, it’s natural to question the wisdom of deploying him as a reliever, a job that requires frequent warmups and pitching on back-to-back days. That said, his relief assignments could be planned and spaced out. Perhaps Reyes can be used in relief, in tandem, with a designated Cardinals starting pitcher.

If manager Mike Shildt goes with a traditional closer, Hicks is a strong candidate. My favorite stat of the 2018 season: Hicks led MLB with 776 fastballs clocked at 100-plus miles per hour. He ruled righty hitters, allowing a .150 average and .171 slugging percentage. And Hicks has a preposterously elevated ground-ball rate of 60.7 percent. Now he just has to find a way to convert all that heat and sink into more strikeouts; a 20.7-percent K rate is too low. And his walk rate (13.3 percent) is too high.

Hudson doesn’t throw nearly as hard as Hicks, but he also has a crazy-good ground-ball rate of 60.8 percent. Big problem: As a rookie last season, Hudson had a 16-percent strikeout rate and 15.3-percent walk rate. That must improve. Dramatically so.

Depending on need, injuries, trends in spring training and early-season performances, veteran starting pitchers Carlos Martinez and Adam Wainwright could be repurposed and turned into relievers. Martinez in particular could be transferred into a quasi-closer role; he was used in that capacity late last season.

Keep an eye on Helsley, who can throw 100-plus mph and has a wicked strikeout rate. If Helsley can avoid arm trouble and get his walk rate down, he’ll surface in the St. Louis bullpen at some point in 2019.

Brebbia is vulnerable against lefty batters but dominated righties last season with a 34.5 percent strikeout rate.

If healthy, Leone looms as an asset, given his 29-percent strikeout rate and 2.56 ERA in 70 innings for Toronto in 2017.

As a guest on my 101ESPN radio show, DeWitt touted Poncedeleon as a bullpen option because of the development of a four-seam fastball that pushed his K/9 rate up to 10.3 at Triple A Memphis last season. And in his work for the Cardinals, “Ponce” was tough on lefty batters, always a plus for a right-handed pitcher.

Sleeper candidate: Gallegos. He’s intriguing for a good and possibly valuable reason: Over his last three seasons, pitching in the Yankees’ and Cardinals’ systems, he had a 38-percent strikeout rate against lefties, with a low walk rate of just six percent.

Gant, who has a terrific changeup, has also been effective against left-handed batters, which could be helpful depending on how the rotation and bullpen take shape during the season.

The Cardinals are increasingly optimistic about Gregerson’s pitching health, but what about his diminishing velocity?
Left-handed relievers

Andrew Miller
Brett Cecil
Austin Gomber
Chasen Shreve
Tyler Webb
Genesis Cabrera
Evan Kruczynski

Relevant notes:

For Miller, it’s all about health, especially a previously problematic knee. But another factor is burnout. After mowing down hitters for a career-high 44.7-percent strikeout rate in 2016, Miller’s K rate dropped to 29.2 percent last season. That said, he still has a killer slider. That one pitch alone makes Miller a scary presence in a St. Louis bullpen that needs enforcers. And Cardinals management believes Miller will be a tremendous influence on their young pitchers.

Gomber could battle for a rotation spot. But in his rookie debut with the Cardinals last season, Gomber started 11 games and worked 18 others in relief. He wasn’t a hammer against lefty hitters, allowing a .333 OBP and .411 slugging percentage with a blah strikeout rate of 18 percent. Gomber can do better than that. But where will he land? His role matters. These are small samples, but last season Gomber had a 5.05 FIP and 1.4 strikeout/walk ratio as a reliever — and a 3.70 FIP and 2.4 K/BB ratio as a starter.

Two seasons into a four-year deal worth $30.5 million, Cecil has been a bust. But the Cardinals are encouraged because Cecil rededicated himself to conditioning this offseason and is supposedly in “The Best Shape Of His Life.” Perhaps this will help Cecil fend off lefties, who have blasted him for a .323 average, .390 OBP and .519 slugging over the past two years. If Cecil can bounce back, it will be a positive development — and a major one — for the Cardinals.

Shreve came over (with Gallegos) in a trade that sent first baseman Luke Voit to the Yankees. I thought Shreve would benefit from getting away from Yankee Stadium, but it didn’t turn out that way. Another small sample here, but his FIP (4.78) and home-run yield rate (1.8 per 9 innings) at Yankee Stadium were better than his FIP (5.48) and HR rate (2.0 per 9) at Busch Stadium. And Shreve’s walk rate was a mess at both places. Maybe pitching coach Mike Maddux can get Shreve on track in spring training.

Cabrera is a live-armed rookie who came to St. Louis in last summer’s trade that sent outfielder Tommy Pham to Tampa Bay. Cabrera has dazzled the Cardinals’ minor-league staff in his relatively short time in the system, and he’s on the fast track to St. Louis. He’s fine against righty batters, but in his last two minor-league seasons, Cabrera has limited lkefties to an OPS of .627 and .550, respectively. And his strikeout punch is gaining power; in limited duty at Memphis late last season, Cabrera struck out 43 percent of opposing lefties. He’s on the way to St. Louis, probably sooner than later.

This will probably sound familiar, but Webb walked too many hitters and didn’t strike out enough of them in spot duty for the Cardinals last season. But he had good results (and even better luck) against lefties, who had a .221 average on balls in play against him last season.

Kruczynski is making a quick climb through the system, and the Cardinals’ front office likes him a lot. He’s projected as a starter, but the Cardinals rarely hesitate to transition a young starter to a relief role. And 2019 may be too soon. Keep this in mind: Kruczynski held lefty batters to a .292 OBP and .311 slugging in the minors.

02-03-2019, 01:05 PM	#26
BigRedChief Has a particular set of skills BigRedChief's Avatar Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: On the water	Bernie’s take on the 2019 bullpen options from the Athletic right now, the Cardinals have significant manpower in their pitching department. Let’s review. Right-handed relievers Jordan Hicks John Brebbia Dominic Leone Dakota Hudson Alex Reyes Mike Mayers Daniel Poncedeleon Luke Gregerson Giovanny Gallegos Ryan Helsley John Gant Relevant notes: Gant, Hudson, Reyes and Poncedeleon could, in theory, could be in the competition for a rotation spot. The young Reyes has the intimidating talent to become a massive bullpen weapon. But after enduring two consecutive seasons lost to injury, it’s natural to question the wisdom of deploying him as a reliever, a job that requires frequent warmups and pitching on back-to-back days. That said, his relief assignments could be planned and spaced out. Perhaps Reyes can be used in relief, in tandem, with a designated Cardinals starting pitcher. If manager Mike Shildt goes with a traditional closer, Hicks is a strong candidate. My favorite stat of the 2018 season: Hicks led MLB with 776 fastballs clocked at 100-plus miles per hour. He ruled righty hitters, allowing a .150 average and .171 slugging percentage. And Hicks has a preposterously elevated ground-ball rate of 60.7 percent. Now he just has to find a way to convert all that heat and sink into more strikeouts; a 20.7-percent K rate is too low. And his walk rate (13.3 percent) is too high. Hudson doesn’t throw nearly as hard as Hicks, but he also has a crazy-good ground-ball rate of 60.8 percent. Big problem: As a rookie last season, Hudson had a 16-percent strikeout rate and 15.3-percent walk rate. That must improve. Dramatically so. Depending on need, injuries, trends in spring training and early-season performances, veteran starting pitchers Carlos Martinez and Adam Wainwright could be repurposed and turned into relievers. Martinez in particular could be transferred into a quasi-closer role; he was used in that capacity late last season. Keep an eye on Helsley, who can throw 100-plus mph and has a wicked strikeout rate. If Helsley can avoid arm trouble and get his walk rate down, he’ll surface in the St. Louis bullpen at some point in 2019. Brebbia is vulnerable against lefty batters but dominated righties last season with a 34.5 percent strikeout rate. If healthy, Leone looms as an asset, given his 29-percent strikeout rate and 2.56 ERA in 70 innings for Toronto in 2017. As a guest on my 101ESPN radio show, DeWitt touted Poncedeleon as a bullpen option because of the development of a four-seam fastball that pushed his K/9 rate up to 10.3 at Triple A Memphis last season. And in his work for the Cardinals, “Ponce” was tough on lefty batters, always a plus for a right-handed pitcher. Sleeper candidate: Gallegos. He’s intriguing for a good and possibly valuable reason: Over his last three seasons, pitching in the Yankees’ and Cardinals’ systems, he had a 38-percent strikeout rate against lefties, with a low walk rate of just six percent. Gant, who has a terrific changeup, has also been effective against left-handed batters, which could be helpful depending on how the rotation and bullpen take shape during the season. The Cardinals are increasingly optimistic about Gregerson’s pitching health, but what about his diminishing velocity? Left-handed relievers Andrew Miller Brett Cecil Austin Gomber Chasen Shreve Tyler Webb Genesis Cabrera Evan Kruczynski Relevant notes: For Miller, it’s all about health, especially a previously problematic knee. But another factor is burnout. After mowing down hitters for a career-high 44.7-percent strikeout rate in 2016, Miller’s K rate dropped to 29.2 percent last season. That said, he still has a killer slider. That one pitch alone makes Miller a scary presence in a St. Louis bullpen that needs enforcers. And Cardinals management believes Miller will be a tremendous influence on their young pitchers. Gomber could battle for a rotation spot. But in his rookie debut with the Cardinals last season, Gomber started 11 games and worked 18 others in relief. He wasn’t a hammer against lefty hitters, allowing a .333 OBP and .411 slugging percentage with a blah strikeout rate of 18 percent. Gomber can do better than that. But where will he land? His role matters. These are small samples, but last season Gomber had a 5.05 FIP and 1.4 strikeout/walk ratio as a reliever — and a 3.70 FIP and 2.4 K/BB ratio as a starter. Two seasons into a four-year deal worth $30.5 million, Cecil has been a bust. But the Cardinals are encouraged because Cecil rededicated himself to conditioning this offseason and is supposedly in “The Best Shape Of His Life.” Perhaps this will help Cecil fend off lefties, who have blasted him for a .323 average, .390 OBP and .519 slugging over the past two years. If Cecil can bounce back, it will be a positive development — and a major one — for the Cardinals. Shreve came over (with Gallegos) in a trade that sent first baseman Luke Voit to the Yankees. I thought Shreve would benefit from getting away from Yankee Stadium, but it didn’t turn out that way. Another small sample here, but his FIP (4.78) and home-run yield rate (1.8 per 9 innings) at Yankee Stadium were better than his FIP (5.48) and HR rate (2.0 per 9) at Busch Stadium. And Shreve’s walk rate was a mess at both places. Maybe pitching coach Mike Maddux can get Shreve on track in spring training. Cabrera is a live-armed rookie who came to St. Louis in last summer’s trade that sent outfielder Tommy Pham to Tampa Bay. Cabrera has dazzled the Cardinals’ minor-league staff in his relatively short time in the system, and he’s on the fast track to St. Louis. He’s fine against righty batters, but in his last two minor-league seasons, Cabrera has limited lkefties to an OPS of .627 and .550, respectively. And his strikeout punch is gaining power; in limited duty at Memphis late last season, Cabrera struck out 43 percent of opposing lefties. He’s on the way to St. Louis, probably sooner than later. This will probably sound familiar, but Webb walked too many hitters and didn’t strike out enough of them in spot duty for the Cardinals last season. But he had good results (and even better luck) against lefties, who had a .221 average on balls in play against him last season. Kruczynski is making a quick climb through the system, and the Cardinals’ front office likes him a lot. He’s projected as a starter, but the Cardinals rarely hesitate to transition a young starter to a relief role. And 2019 may be too soon. Keep this in mind: Kruczynski held lefty batters to a .292 OBP and .311 slugging in the minors.
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