[duncan_idaho]

Duncan's Top Prospects for 2020

Well, here it is. I'll switch into baseball mode, reluctantly, after the high of the Chiefs getting to the mountain top.

The Royals farm system is slowly building back up to the state it needs to be in. Good drafts in 2018 and 2019 (some might say a GREAT draft in 2018) have the system loading up. With a strong 2020 draft (more on that in a bit) and solid progression from current crop of farmhands, KC is primed to be back in top 10s-ville (rather than the mid-range current ranking) by this time next year.

Let's get to it.

Top 5

Spoiler!

1. Bobby Witt, Jr. RHH SS Witt has been talked about a ton in these Royals threads since mid-2018. You know the story by now: He's a toolshed, with legitimate 5-tool ability. His hit tool is the biggest question, and he has shown some positive signs in that regard (the changes he made between his junior and senior years of HS, for example). At his best, he's Trevor Story (.270/30/80/100) with more speed. That's a gold glove level SS with 30-HR power who's a true 30-30 threat every year. This season is huge for him - he had disappointing numbers in his pro debut but strong peripherals and batted ball stats. He's the most important player in this system.

Where does he end 2020? I'm going to get aggressive and say KC challenges him late with an assignment to High A Wilmington.

2. Kris Bubic, LHP This is an aggressive ranking from me for Bubic, but I keep coming back to how advanced he is and the fact he led the minors in strikeouts shouldn't be overlooked. Coming from the left side with great deception and a dynamite changeup that induces a ton of whiffs, he also improved his fastball velocity last year thanks to diving into analytics, and showed a workable curveball. If he continues to sit 93-94, the combo of secondaries makes him my top guy of the big 4.

Where does he end 2020? AAA Omaha, ready to compete for a major league rotation spot in 2021 (it would be Kansas City if it wasn't silly to start his clock this year)

3. Daniel Lynch, LHP I've seen Lynch in the third slot in most lists. There's a ton to like from him - a 6-5 lefty who sits in the mid-90s and has a wipeout slider and developing changeup sounds an awful lot like Sean Manaea (who, anyone was around in 2015 can attest, I constantly splooged about). Of the "Big 4," Lynch has the best combination of pure, raw stuff. If the changeup doesn't come along a bit more, he does risk becoming Andrew Miller.

Where does he end 2020? AAA Omaha, ready to compete for a major league rotation spot in 2021 (it would be Kansas City if it wasn't silly to start his clock this year)

4. Jackson Kowar, RHP Kowar currently has a profile that I typically don't love: RHP whose best secondary is a changeup. Kowar has a plus fastball, plus-plus change. But that profile is hard to make hold up at the major league level without an at least average big-league breaking ball. With his size, arm angle, and general delivery, I'd love to see him ditch the curveball (which is very inconsistent) and work on a cutter and a slider. I see a lot of Michael Wacha in Kowar... whether he picks up a better feel for spin than Wacha will determine if he is more than a back-end starter.

Where does he end 2020? AAA Omaha, ready to compete for a major league rotation spot in 2021 (it would be Kansas City if it wasn't silly to start his clock this year)

5. Brady Singer, RHP Singer's profile is a lot like Kowar's. Big righty, good makeup, good fastball (with better command), ultimate fate determined by progression of his secondaries. Unlike Kowar, Singer doesn't have the dynamite putway pitch. His slider - which is a slower, more vertical-breaking slider than the tight snapper Daniel Lynch features - is inconsistent but a nice weapon when he has it. With his arm angle, throwing a consistent changeup will probably always be an issue for Singer. I've been banging the drum for a while now for Singer to try a splitter. He needs a weapon against lefties to induce some swing-and-miss (wouldn't hurt against righties, either). This is an area where I hope KC can be a little more creative and avoid round-pegging this square-hole guy (This front office/development staff has in the past locked in too much on fastball-curve-change arsenals - though the past few years have shown them moving off this).

Where does he end 2020? Kansas City. The Royals give Singer a September call-up. He may have a rough go in Omaha if the trampoline ball is still in play there (having that ball in those hitting environments makes it really hard for pitchers to post good "traditional" numbers), but he'll do well enough and progress enough for KC to bring him to the Show.

6-10

Spoiler!

6. Khalil Lee, LHH OF I love the potential of Khalil Lee. He's a very traditional Royals outfielder in that he has a full toolbox that includes a strong arm and great speed. He's a very non-traditional Royals outfielder in that he takes a lot of pitches, has good plate discipline, and tends to draw walks (if anything, he sometimes is TOO patient). Lee has good raw power (55) but he hasn't displayed much of it in games for the past 2 seasons. If he taps into it again, KC could be looking at a real star player. If he doesn't, best case is probably a very David DeJesus-like LF ... but with plus speed and 30+ SB a year.

Where does he end 2020? Kansas City, playing LF or RF on a daily basis in September.

7. Kyle Isbel, LHH OF Isbel's offensive profile is interesting. He has hit a ton as a pro and often has looked like a steal in the 3rd round of the 2018 draft. He injured his hand and missed some time last season, and his numbers nose-dived after his return. Did he come back too soon? It looks very possible. Isbel also has a very David DeJesus-like profile. There's still some potential he could play 2B, which would make his offensive contributions (potential .280/.330/.450 with 20 SB) a lot more special.

Where does he end 2020? AA Northwest Arkansas. Isbel will start and stick at NWA as the Naturals make a playoff push.

8. Erick Pena, LHH OF Ohhhhh, baby. You want high-upside Latin America talent to dream on? Hear you go. Pena has an enormous ceiling. Early chatter is that he's fast and skilled enough to stick in CF - even for the Royals and their spacious ballpark. That's a big, big statement. As for the bat, it's way too early to KNOW anything, but he has a compact, smooth swing with good loft and great control. It's said he controls the strike zone well and can use all fields. Best-case scenario is this is a guy in top 50 lists by this time next year, with the likelihood of ascending to the top 25 and elite prospect ranks as he approaches the majors.

Where does he end 2020? As a 2019 Latin America signing, it's hard to see him advancing much beyond Idaho Falls this year. But... if he hits and they think he can handle it from a makeup perspective (likely), KC will be more aggressive with him. So I'll be aggressive and say he ends up in Single A Burlington.


9. Yefri del Rosario, RHP del Rosario missed all of 2019 but was last seen dominating hitters much older than him in 2018. I think he picks up where he left off. The stuff may not be there to be more than a back-end starter, but he's got enough stuff, enough command, and enough moxie to have a pretty high floor (for me).

Where does he end 2020? High-A Wilmington. He'll start the year in Lexington, but will have enough success to jump to High-A.


10. Austin Cox, LHP Cox doesn't get much attention, but he's also from the class of 2018. He has the best fastball-curve combination of any Royals lefty in the minors, and he has a real penchant for strikeouts. If the commmand improvements he showed off in 2019 stick, this could be a mid-rotation starter in the majors with a K/IP.

Where does he end 2020? AA Northwest Arkanas, anchoring the rotation in the playoff run.

11-20

Spoiler!

11. Carlos Hernandez, RHP 2019 looks like a bit of a lost season for Hernandez if you just look at his final stat line. But he did perform at a high level in Lexington after shaking off the rust at rookie ball (and getting hit around). When healthy, Hernandez is a big, physical righthander with a classic pitcher build. He has a fastball-slider combo that can dominate.

Where does he end 2020? AA Northwest Arkansas. I expect KC to move Hernandez as quickly as it can to make up for 2019's delay in his progression.

12. M.J. Melendez, LHH C Welp.2019 sucked, huh? Melendez came into the 2019 season muscled up like crazy, and i wonder if it cost him some flexibility in his swing, as his already-present k issues spiraled out of control. He still has the tools - raw power, athleticism and great arm behind the plate, great makeup, good receiver and pitch-caller - to be a plus starting catcher. Early reports on him are a completely reworked swing (and more flexible, slimmer, dynamic body). He's going to catch and throw well enough to make a big-league roster. He can be a solid starter if the swing changes improve his contact rate and cut his k rate - but that needs to show up right away.

Where does he end 2020? AA Northwest Arkansas. Melendez is part of the "core wave" the Royals are prepping and will be kept with the same core of guys who won the Single-A title last year. The NWA ballpark typically plays well for lefthanded power, so if he really HAS fixed some of his issues, Melendez could be due for a major bounceback with the bat.


13. Brady McConnell, RHH SS/3B/CF You want to talk about tools? McConnell has them. That's very classic Dayton Moore farm target. What's interesting about McConnell is that the Royals zagged a bit in snagging him. As a draft eligible sophomore coming off so-so college production at Florida, McConnell was a divisive prospect. By drafting him high and paying him accordingly, KC ensured he would jump to the majors. With his raw power and speed, McConnell could have catapaulted into the top 15 picks with a strong junior campaign. It's a boom-bust swing, but it's a creative approach to adding high-upside talent to the system. It gives KC more upside than you'd typically find from a guy drafted where McConnell was. Creative is good. More of that, please.

Where does he end 2020? Playing CF for A Lexington.


14. Yohanse Morel, RHP Morel has some of the best stuff in the Royals system. He's still far away, he missed time with injury in 2019, and his performance wasn't great when he was on the mound (so he lands in the second ten prospects of a mid-tier system). He'll be just 20 this year and will get a second crack at Lexington. At 6-0, there's not much projection left in him, but simple refinement of his command and control could spell a solid back-end rotation guy.

Where does he end 2020? In Lexington. He'll likely be ready for the push to High-A Wilmington, but KC keeps him in Lexington for a playoff push

15. Vinnie Pasquantino, LHH 1B Now here is a fun find. Vinnie P is a classic 1B - big, powerful, lumbering. A round 11 pick in 2019 out of Old Dominion, Pasquatino raked in his pro debut, to the tune of a .592 SLG. He also paired that with good plate discipline (27:40 K:BB, 16.7% K rate). The Royals might have found a real gem here (they also might have drafted a college guy who was too experienced for his rookie-ball competition). He's a 1B-only guy all the way, and that's a tough profile to make it with, but this year should give a good indication of whether he's legitimate or just a college guy whose experience carried him.

Where does he end 2020? Batting cleanup for Single A Lexington.


16. Darryl Collins, LHH OF Spreek je Nederlands? Collins, an international signing out of The Netherlands, was impressive in his pro debut. (22:30 K:BB, 14.8% K rate). The bat is going to carry him, but early results give reason to hope he can be more Max Kepler than Marten Gasparini (at least hitting the ball. He isn't going to run or defend as well as Kepler - not the same type of athlete).

Where does he end 2020? Collins will start the season on the complex and make his debut at short-season A (Burlington). He'll continue to rake.


17. Zach Haake, RHP Haake was also part of that nice 2018 draft class. The righty has filthy stuff - good fastball and slider - but likely is headed for the pen due to the guys around him and some injury concerns. Maxing out for the pen, Haake would project as a high 90s guy with a wipeout slider. Yes, please, yes.

Where does he end 2020? Haake will make it to Wilmington - how he does there will determine if he stays in the rotation moving forward.


18. Evan Steele and Daniel Tillo, LHPs I threw these two together because they're from the same draft class and have similar outlooks: Bullpen lefties (but really good ones). Steele has the size and stuff to be a really good starter (seriously, he is right there with Lynch and Hernandez and Morel in terms of raw stuff) but has major health concerns that probably relegate him to the pen. Tillo has a nasty power sinker and became a lockdown guy after moving to the pen last year. With Haake, these two may form the backbone of the next Royals playoff bullpen.

Where does he end 2020? Steele has to prove he can stay healthy and won't make it past Wilmington. I think Tillo ends up in KC in September, pitching middle innings.


20. Seuly Matias, RHH OF I'm stopping here, not because I'm out of interesting guys, but because it all becomes so wishy-washy after this point. Speaking of wishy-washy, read the rest of this recap. Matias has so much natural ability, you can believe he'll eventually put things together and become a low average thumper who plays a good RF and is a quality starter. His raw power is exceptional. But then there are the strikeout issues. He has so many strikeout issues, you can't believe he'll eventually put things together. 2018 and 2019 were big seasons for him developmentally - he really needed to cut those K rates to continue progressing - and he failed those developmental goals. There's time left, but not a lot...

Where does he end 2020? on the injured list. Did I mention he gets hurt all the time, too, in addition to striking out all the time?

2020 Draft Thoughts
The Royals again have a strong draft pool to work with in 2020, with 4 picks in the top 77 (4, 32, 41, 77) and will have the money to be creative and aggressive. At 4th overall, KC is probably out of range for the top college bat, Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State 1B/OF) who basically is Andrew Vaughn - but with better raw power and the ability to 'play' LF. This draft is deep in college arms (Emerson Hancock, Asa Lacy, Garrett Crochet), but there will be intriguing college bats (Vandy SS Austin Martin, UCLA CF Garrett Mitchell) available, too.

It's regarded as a pretty strong draft right now, so it's a good year to have picks and add premium upside to a system on the rise. The big target for me would be impact bats. KC's minor league system has good pitching depth. You always take the best guy on your board, but looking at KC's system, I'd take a bat over a similarly ranked pitcher this year (unless Hancock is there. If he is, they can't let him slip).