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Rotation #24. ROYALS
Like the Marlins, this Royals rotation is poised to shock. There are more veterans here than in Miami, but a combination of experience and youth has them on the cusp of something good. Minor’s peripherals last year were mostly in line with his big 2019; if you stared too hard at the 5.56 ERA, you might have missed the 4.20 SIERA. A velocity boost in spring training gives hope that he could pitch like he did his first time in Kansas City in 2017, though it is worth noting that his 2.55 ERA that year came entirely in relief.
Keller, a groundball artist with a 93–95 mph sinker, goes wherever his BABIP takes him. Thankfully for the Royals, he has shaved that figure down each year, hitting a .233 mark last season that led to a 2.47 ERA in 55 innings. His upside is tied to how many innings he can eat, as his skills are unlikely to make great leaps barring major arsenal changes. Duffy once carried frontline promise but has now settled into an an elder statesman role in the middle of the rotation.
Singer and Bubic were surprise call-ups in 2020, and both held their own. A quality fastball-slider combo helped Singer keep hitters at bay, but his changeup needs work if he is going to be more than a fifth starter. Bubic, meanwhile, leaned on his changeup and curveball to some solid results, but the fastball lacked any real bite and is already short on velocity (90–92 mph from the left side).
Even if the youngsters struggle, there are reinforcements. Junis is a veteran arm at this point who can string some decent starts together, but his success will always be capped by a huge career 1.6 HR/9 rate. Hernández and Kowar are another pair of notable prospects, both of whom should debut in 2021. A good fastball paired with a delivery that our Eric Longenhagen called “reliever-y” could push the former into the bullpen. The latter is powered by a premium changeup and little else, drawing Chris Paddack comps.
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