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I think it's an incredibly risky bet by the studio but as the OP stated it's hard to bet against Cameron. One of the reasons Avatar did so well was because it was the killer app to showcase the new wave of 3D movies so not sure how much people are really dying to see a sequel (much less 4!) but will be great fun to see what happens if the first follow-up struggles.
I have many friends who worked on the original and the stories they tell about Cameron. Dude sounds like a mad genius...
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