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He’s another one…. Similar theme.
'Everyone is just looking out for themselves'
In 2017, the Bears dealt the No. 3 pick, two thirds and a fourth to the 49ers to move up one spot in the draft. At No. 2, they chose their guy, Mitch Trubisky. It wasn't a reach at the time, as scouts ranked Trubisky the No. 1 QB in his class. That same year, the Chiefs sent two first-round picks and a third for the Bills' No. 10 pick, drafting Patrick Mahomes.
Regardless of how their careers would unfold, trade value charts had the teams who traded back — the 49ers and Bills — winning both deals by receiving upwards of 150 cents on the dollar. Why?
As Alec Lewis explains in an enlightening story on the NFL's approach to the draft, research has shown that teams should accumulate picks by trading back and into the future more often: "The more darts you have, the better your chance of eventually hitting the bull’s-eye."
In 2005, a research paper on overconfidence in the NFL revealed analysis on decision-making during the draft. Key themes:
Evaluating prospects is difficult. Our stats back it up: Across the past 13 years, first-round WRs were either a bust or a reach 63 percent of the time. The hit rate for top-10 QBs was not much better, with teams drafting stars at just a 26 percent rate.
Teams aren't as smart as they think. The researchers found that "teams massively overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they heavily overvalue the 'right to choose' in the draft."
Given the uncertainty, the more picks, the better. The highly coveted QB position demonstrates the downside of trading up to get "your guy," unless he turns out to be Mahomes. Across the past 13 NFL drafts, nearly 70 percent of years saw the best QB drafted after the first QB was taken. For example, Lamar Jackson went No. 32 in 2018 as the fifth QB taken. Trade back.
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