[KChiefs1]

https://theathletic.com/3123837/2022...ises-and-more/

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — To your questions (which have been edited for clarity), and thank you for sending them over …

What are the chances that MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto and Bobby Witt Jr. all break camp with the team? — Anonymous

If this question is about the chance of all three breaking camp together in 2022, the short answer is this: not likely. But it’s worth delving deeper into each individual case.

We’ll start with Bobby Witt Jr., whom The Athletic’s Keith Law recently ranked as the No. 2 prospect in Major League Baseball behind Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman.

“This was as close a call between the top two prospects that I can recall having,” Law wrote, “probably since my No. 1 and 2 were named Mike and Bryce before the 2011 season — and having Witt second here is no slight to him.”

By now, you’re assuredly aware of Witt’s ability. In 2021, playing in the upper levels of the minor leagues at age 20, Witt posted a .936 OPS with 35 doubles, 33 home runs, 97 RBIs and 29 stolen bases. If that doesn’t convincingly answer Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore’s first rule of promoting prospects — the player has to have premium talent — it’d be hard to know what would.

He weighs about 205 pounds now as opposed to about 198 pounds last year and has enhanced his mobility, according to those whom he works out with at Athlete Performance Enhancement Center (APEC) in Fort Worth, Texas, so he should satisfy Moore’s second rule: The player has to be performing.

There’s little question about Moore’s rule No. 3: There has to be an opportunity. While the Royals boast three premium infielders in Adalberto Mondesi, Nicky Lopez and Whit Merrifield, those within the organization have acknowledged that Witt’s defensive talent, range and availability could be a boon at third base or second base.

So, it’s hard to imagine his not breaking camp with the club, service time be damned.

As for Melendez, his talent is obvious, too. Law ranked the 23-year-old as his No. 27 prospect in baseball. He wrote: “Couple the mechanical adjustments with a whole new plan at the plate and you get a premium offensive catcher with that cannon arm.” Melendez’s talent is obvious. His performance in camp will matter. More than anything, the question mark is about the opportunity. Salvador Perez, 31, is the Royals’ catcher. He hit 48 home runs last season. Expecting him to relinquish his starts behind the plate feels like folly. However, depending on roster health, the performance of Hunter Dozier and the presence (or lack thereof) of Carlos Santana, the Royals could need a designated hitter. In theory, Melendez could fill that spot while also playing spot time at catcher to allow for a more refreshed Perez. If that’s the route the Royals choose, Melendez could break camp with the club.

Then there’s Pratto, whom Law ranked as his No. 54 prospect. Law wrote of the 23-year-old: “He’s an above-average defender at first who should post high walk rates, helping him even if his batting averages aren’t great, and getting him to 25-30 homers a year.” Pratto’s defensive ability will provide immense value for the entire infield, even if he struggles early with the bat. As with Melendez, his training camp production will matter. Also as with Melendez, the obstacle most in his way is opportunity. Though Santana posted a .661 OPS in 2021, the Royals have him under contract for 2022 at $10.5 million. Because of that, the Royals will likely play him. Unless they choose to trade him once MLB’s lockout of the players wraps up. If a trade were to happen, and the Royals were to decide that they did not want Dozier to play first base, Pratto’s time could come.

In conclusion, numerous dominoes would have to fall for all three to break camp with the club together. Regardless, the time for each should come quickly.

Who will have the highest WAR at the end of the season: Nicky Lopez, Bobby Witt Jr., Whit Merrifield or Adalberto Mondesi? — Yort C.

Before I answer this one, think for a second about the potential Royals infield.

Whether the Royals start Lopez, Witt or Mondesi at shortstop, ponder the potential of all three standing on the dirt at the same time. Given the nature of shifts in this era of the game, has any organization ever boasted three plus-shortstops at each infield spot? It feels unlikely.

And say, God forbid, one of the three suffers an injury. The Royals could plug in Merrifield, who many thought could win the American League Gold Glove award at second base in 2022. The point: What Royals fans might soon see could be special.

As you can see, Yort, projections would answer your question with Witt. And for as much as that makes sense given his talent — “Witt’s tools package is among the best in the game: He’s at least a 70 runner, has an 80 arm, has plus power, and his hands and feet make him a plus glove at shortstop,” Law wrote — the big-league jump appears daunting. For that reason, I’ll stick with the safe route, expecting their order in WAR to fall like this: Merrifield, Lopez, Witt, then Mondesi for lack-of-availability reasons.

The 2022 Kansas City Royals are going to be known for their _______. — Drew C.

Defense.

Potentially three plus shortstops playing the three infield spots with a special defensive first baseman in Pratto and Perez behind the plate?

Uh, yeah.

Is Salvador Perez overrated? — Brandon W.

Maybe you read this question, stood up, grabbed your nearest lint cloth, cleaned your glasses, reread the question and closed your eyes. If so, we can relate. This is not the first time Brandon W. has posed this thought.

Hmm …

Baseball-Reference goes back to 1871. That’s 151 years ago. Since then, only 224 players have ever played 500 games at catcher (90 percent of their games played at the position). Of those 224, Perez ranks No. 13 in total WAR (29.6). Here are the only catchers in this era of the game who top him: Ivan Rodriguez (68.7), Yadier Molina (42.1), Jason Kendall (41.7), Russell Martin (38.8) and Brian McCann (32).

Other than Perez, who is only 31, Molina remains active. But that’s it. There’s no telling how many more years Perez will play, but his commitment to his body — check his daily Instagram stories during this lockout — should lend itself to longevity. He could pass all but Rodriguez and Molina.

Overrated?

(Shakes head.)

You could also mention the seven All-Star appearances, the five Gold Glove awards, the four Silver Slugger awards, the World Series MVP and the World Series ring.

But that’s all.

If the concessions at Kauffman Stadium could have one of these items, which would you pick: Slap’s ribs, Q39 burnt ends, Joe’s Z-man? — Mark S.

Nobody actually cares what barbecue item a local writer prefers, but I will take this opportunity to express my love for the Z-man. Maybe this is a cheap answer. Maybe it’s obvious. If that’s how you feel, I will be OK. As one highly regarded Royals prospect recently said, “Cliches are cliches for a reason.” The Z-man is to die for. You have arguably the best sauce in Kansas City. (Gates, I see you.) Beneath it, you have a hot crispy onion ring. Beneath that, you have smoked provolone cheese. Then the savory brisket. Add in the fries with the seasoning that may or may not have been handed down from the heavens, and yes, you now know what you should be having for dinner tonight.

Do the Royals believe Kyle Isbel is a long-term option as an outfield starter or is he the guy who happens to be atop the right-field depth chart while they try to go get someone else? — Brad S.

During a lockout, you may find yourself scrolling through Baseball Savant on a random Tuesday night. And if you do, you may stumble upon charts such as these:

Isbel’s entire 2021 season was fascinating. Essentially, he raked during spring training to the point that the Royals promoted him to their Opening Day roster. He started the season in right field, contributed in numerous games, then began to struggle against a quality of pitching he had never faced before.

Shane Bieber and Lance Lynn? Quite the step up from High-A Wilmington, where Isbel played in 2019.

Turns out, after he was demoted to Triple-A Omaha, the Royals hitting development department, led by senior director of player development and hitting performance Alec Zumwalt, uncovered what Isbel termed a “hip slide.” To fix things, he turned his back foot inward, eliminating pressure on the inside part of his foot. He then began to rake again.

That, of course, propelled another promotion. Hitting a baseball is a task that requires correct mechanics, a clear mind and a mobile body. Working in sync, those characteristics can help against the best pitchers in the world. Isbel is proof. His swing-and-miss dipped, but his numbers rose. In 36 plate appearances in April, he posted a .630 OPS. In 44 plate appearances in September, he posted a .930 OPS. Interestingly, he did also have reverse splits (an .885 OPS against lefties and a .751 OPS against righties).

What does that mean long term? The sample remains too small to say. But Isbel will earn opportunities. The Royals believe strongly in his work ethic. How that translates in-game consistently against the top pitchers will likely tell the tale.

Are you more concerned about right field or center field? Are the answers for both positions on the team now? — Robert A.

This question requires clarification: Are you talking about 2022 or beyond? Let’s look at both.

In 2022, the Royals center fielder will almost certainly be Michael A. Taylor, whom the Royals signed to a two-year extension worth $9 million last season. What Taylor brings becomes clear by looking at this chart:

As a hitter, he tends to whiff at pitches. He strikes out often. He rarely walks. As a defender, he’s arguably (and, boy, it would be hard to argue against) the best in the game. Here’s how longtime outfield coaching expert Rusty Kuntz described Taylor’s defensive prowess: “I’m seeing the reads of Ken Griffey Jr., the running motion of Devon White, and it’s hard to compare his arm. His arm stroke is beautiful. It’s just beautiful.”

Now, is that type of defensive ability sustainable every day in a lineup? This is the question the Royals will have to answer. The Royals play 81 games a year at Kauffman Stadium, which has the largest amount of fair territory in the American League. Still, his overall value in FanGraphs’ WAR-to-dollar valuation ($14.9 million in 2021) ranked 11th out of 13 qualified center fielders. Duplicating that type of production essentially would solidify the Royals’ extension, but will it be enough for the Royals to compete the way they want to? Time will tell. Center field remains a spot that feels fit for a trade as the Royals’ young starters enter arbitration.

As for right field, when Witt arrives, and if Mondesi is healthy, it’s possible Merrifield could move out there. In 2019 and ’20, he posted positive outs-above-average marks in right field. His speed is obvious, even if he is 33 years old. The Royals’ other present option seems as if it could be Dozier, but he has never posted a positive outs-above-average mark out there. In 128 defensive attempts in 2021 alone, he posted -6 outs above average.

Isbel could be a future option, depending on how he progresses. If he can’t stick, and if the Royals don’t extend Merrifield, the Royals may have to lean on another prospect, such as Melendez or Nick Loftin, or trade some of their young arms for a capable option.

Of the young starters currently on the MLB roster (Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Brady Singer, Jonathan Heasley, Carlos Hernández, Angel Zerpa, etc.) who is going to take the biggest step forward this season? Who is going to be a surprise to the fans as a breakout pitcher, whether a starter or a reliever? — Jason P.

The easy answer here might actually be Kowar, given the gap between how he performed and the level at which he may be capable of performing. But Lynch feels as if he’s the best choice.

Part of that is how prospect evaluators discussed him before his debut in 2021. Law ranked him as his No. 17 prospect in 2021 and wrote: “His fastball doesn’t play up to its velocity, so he’ll need to pitch more with his secondary stuff, but his slider was already plus and his changeup looks like one now, too. He’ll have to keep working on repeating his delivery to boost his command and control, but this is elite stuff from the left side, and his arsenal has only improved since we last saw him.”

This held true. Here’s how Eno Sarris’ advanced metrics graded Lynch’s individual pitches:

Lynch’s sinker was more effective than his four-seam, so maybe upping the usage on that pitch would help him. Regardless, more sliders and curveballs for strikes and for chase seem like they could help. That adjusted usage, combined with more consistent control and potentially more velocity in a new, full season, is why it feels as if Lynch does have another gear.

Dylan Coleman might not totally be a surprise for folks as a reliever, given he made his debut in 2021. But he would be my pick. He has not only two plus pitches (a four-seam fastball and slider), per Stuff+, but also a closer-type disposition that should work at the big-league level.

Who is a surprise player who will make it out of spring training not among the big three prospects (Witt, Pratto, Melendez) and why? — Rick W.

We started with the three prospects, so we might as well end around them. Here’s a name for you: Nathan Webb. You will read much more about him soon. For now, know this: He is a Kansas City native who throws 100 mph and has a plus changeup. He also already has a World Series ring. Again, check back soon for so much more.

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