2. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 2 in 2019
Previous ranking: No. 27
This was as close a call between the top two prospects that I can recall having, probably since my No. 1 and 2 were named Mike and Bryce before the 2011 season — and having Witt second here is no slight to him. Witt destroyed Double-A and Triple-A pitching last year as a 21-year-old with just 37 games of experience outside of high school, all of that coming in the Arizona Rookie League in 2019. He did go to the Royals’ alternate site in 2020, gaining significant experience against older pitching — many of them players who would appear in the majors for Kansas City in 2021 — which may have helped him progress despite the lack of actual games. He also came into power sooner than I expected, with 33 homers on the season, half coming in Double A with the minor-league ball, so this wasn’t some Triple-A mirage.
Witt’s tools package is among the best in the game: He’s at least a 70 runner, has an 80 arm, has plus power, and his hands and feet make him a plus glove at shortstop. There’s some thought he might outgrow the position in time, though that’s hardly a lock. Witt’s father, the former Rangers starter and No. 3 pick in 1985, has a similar frame and did not become overly broad or heavy, even in retirement. It’s possible the Royals would move Witt Jr. to accommodate another shortstop, but I see his future on defense as similar to the career so far of Carlos Correa. The majority of scouts thought Correa would outgrow the position, but he has stayed lean and been an above-average defender throughout his major-league tenure. The one knock here, and it is a small one, is that Witt has some swing and miss in his game, with a tendency to get too long and overrotate just a little — something he may very well improve once he has a few hundred at bats in the majors under his belt. Right now, it’s the only separator between him and Rutschman. They both belong in the majors now and both have MVP-level upside.
27. MJ Melendez, C, Kansas City Royals
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 52 in 2017
Previous ranking: Unranked
The Royals saw their plate discipline numbers do a 180 across the system last year, and Melendez was one of the main beneficiaries of their new emphasis on hitting plans for their hitters. Melendez has always had plus-plus power and a ridiculous arm, but was a hacker through the 2019 season when he hit .163/.260/.311 with a 39 percent strikeout rate in High A, a disastrous season that in hindsight only underscores how incredible his transformation has been. In 2021, he hit .288/.386/.625 between Double A and Triple A, and cut his strikeout rate to 22 percent. He struck out 50 fewer times in 112 more plate appearances. It’s a funny thing, but when you always hit the ball hard, and then you start making a lot more contact, you get really good results, like hitting 41 homers to lead all of minor league baseball. The Royals did help Melendez with his mechanics as well; he’s always been a busy hitter, with a high leg kick and huge hip rotation, but he’s calmed the latter part down enough so he’s no longer overrotating and his timing on his leg kick is better. Coming into some of his strength has helped him develop a stronger base and stay more upright through contact as well. Couple the mechanical adjustments with a whole new plan at the plate and you get a premium offensive catcher with that cannon arm. He can still be too energetic behind the plate but has improved his receiving in the last two years; now it’s going to be his bat that carries him.
54. Nick Pratto, 1B, Kansas City Royals
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 14 in 2017
Previous ranking: Unranked
Pratto came off a 2019 season where he hit .191/.278/.310 with nine homers and a 35 percent strikeout rate as a first baseman in High A, and the only thing keeping him from ex-prospect status was his youth. Two years and a swing overhaul later, Pratto is now very much a current prospect, hitting 36 homers in 2021 with a .383 OBP and an acceptable 29 percent strikeout rate, more than enough to have him profile as a potential everyday player right now. The Royals helped Pratto revamp his swing, eliminating some of the loop length that slowed his time to the ball and allowed him to drive the ball to the whole field instead of just his pull side. He has also vastly improved his awareness of the strike zone, part of the Royals’ system-wide overhaul of how they teach hitters to approach at-bats, although he can be too selective with pitches in the zone, and he’s always going to have some swing and miss in his game. He’s an above-average defender at first who should post high walk rates, helping him even if his batting averages aren’t great, and getting him to 25-30 homers a year.
90. Asa Lacy, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Age: 23 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 4 in 2020
Previous ranking: 30
Lacy’s pro debut was a disaster: he walked 41 men in 52 innings, 17.3 percent of batters faced, before the Royals shut him down in late July to deal with a muscle injury in his shoulder; it didn’t require surgery but may explain the sudden loss of the strike zone. His stuff looked as good as ever, as he was up to 99, sitting mid to upper 90s, with a 55 to 60 slider and changeup that would show plus, with that last pitch good enough to give him a reverse platoon split. He looked better in the Arizona Fall League, with similar stuff and just one outing in four where he had control issues, but there’s still reasonable doubt whether he’ll return to the kind of control he showed as an amateur, when the Royals made him the No. 3 overall pick in 2020 (and he was good enough to merit discussion at No. 1). If he does, he’ll be a top-50 prospect again, maybe even top 20, with ace stuff from the left side and a big, durable build.
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