Quote:
Originally Posted by OKchiefs
Huge mistake. They've had almost 0% success developing high schoolers in almost a decade. Vast majority of our players to reach the majors have been college players. I'd take Rutschman without question. I'd take Vaughn too as our own version of Kris Bryant.
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It’s the biggest risk/reward at the top of the draft (top 3). I wouldn’t pass on Rutschman for Witt, but the Orioles are considering it at least lightly, too, so it’s not as if the Royals are on an island there.
The Royals also haven’t drafted 1-2 since 2008. The success rate is higher at those spots than lower ones... even in the low-hit MLB draft.
Let’s look at drafts since the Royals’ last pick that high (which was Moustakas) and pretend they had #2.
2009: they likely take Zach Wheeler or Donovan Tate. One hit, one huge miss
2010: Machado or Taillon (likely Machado). Hit either way.
2011: Dylan Bundy or Bubba Starling (still miss on Lindor, Rendon). Believe they would have taken Bundy over Bubba.
2012: Byron Buxton. Would have taken him second and not flinched, just like the Twins.
2013: Kris Bryant, Clint Frazier, or Jon Gray (who they drafted out of HS). I think they take Bryant because he’s an athletic position player, even though he’s a college bat.
2014: Tyler Kolek or Nick Gordon, in all likelihood. Pretty bad draft overall
2015: Bregman or Brendan Rodgers. Flip a coin.
2016: Nick Senzel, Ian Anderson (Braves, top prospect). I think they pop Senzel here, personally, as he like Bryant is a toolsy college bat.
2017: it’s Mackenzie Gore, no doubt in my mind. Next year’s Chris Paddack
2018: this one is tough. Jared Kelenic might have been their choice. Don’t see a match with Joey Bart (actual #2) or the other college guys who went around him.
Point is: when you’re drafting second, the success rate goes way, way up regardless of who is drafting.