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Old 05-03-2021, 01:34 PM   #77
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Springpatch
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Meck View Post
Oh man. Where to start with this post?

Let's start here:

1)99% of the mock drafts and 'expert analysis' bullshit we see is based on rumors and guesses by people who are not and never have been NFL scouts. Most of them are no more qualified than you or I to run an NFL draft room; and you or I are absolutely NOT qualified just because we read what these guys say and watch some YouTube videos.

2) The concept of positional value above all else ignores CONTEXT. Judging an individual draft by that that concept ignores so many variables that are really important like:

A)team needs, which include cap situations regarding veterans going forward, the depth chart and whether this position is likely to see the field any time soon

B)Scheme fit- sure that player may be EDGE RUSHER #6, which is excellent value in the late 2nd round, but he's 245 lbs. and best suited as a 3-4 OLB, and is likely to ONLY be successful as a situational pass rusher in a 4-3 base/heavy nickel like we run here. So no, he's not as valuable as a guy who may play 60 snaps plus a game at a less 'premier' position of NEED.

3)Your premise assumes that there is a huge difference between, say, WR #8 and WR #16. The reality is, because of scheme fit, differences of opinion in scouts rankings, and such WE have no earthly idea who WR #8 even is to any specific team, and the difference between WR #8 and #16 may be a big difference or very little. A lot of times, guys are bunched in very similar talent groups and you don't know what variables make the fit a good one or not. Maybe WR #8 is faster, but he's dumb as a rock and unlikely to be able to digest an Andy Reid playbook. WR #16 is super smart and a better route runner which allows him to play 'quicker' than his 40 time but he played in a dumbed down offense in college so you and I don't know that, but the scouts do and he's a better fit actually than WR #8.

So do you reach for WR #16? You could, and then everybody talks about how stupid you are, because that guy has a fourth round grade, and this guy you passed over was a clear second round talent, yadda yadda yadda. So you wait and you take him where it makes sense to, and in the meantime-

4) KC is picking at the back end of every round. IF they stay with the so-called 'higher value, premier positions' they will forever be drafting lesser talent. This is a formula for a declining team. The system is literally set up that way-to encourage parity and discourage dynasties. If you keep your board open to any position that is a scheme and need fit you can get elite players albeit at 'less valued positions'. Having young, cost controlled elite talent is the key to keeping this SB train running as long as we can with Mahomes. You fill in what you need to in free agency, but the draft is still the foundation.

So, you take WR #8 in the second round, and end up with IOL #30 in round 6 and hope he can be a good starting Center in a couple of seasons because positional value! .This is how you end up with Reiter and Wylie.

But WR#16 was actually an equally good fit for the team and you could wait and grab him in the 4th because he's a really SPECIFIC good fit for this offense more so than some others and your scouts just love him. So you take the LB and the OC in the second because they fit perfect and you can greatly improve two separate position groupings from good to elite.

That's of more value than WR#8.

We need elite young cost controlled talent for now, and for the near future. You don't get that by drafting lower rated players at higher rated positions according to unqualified draftniks.

We got EXCELLENT value in round 2 with late first/early 2nd rated guys at positions of need; and the Offensive line has gone from our biggest weakness to an elite group for this season and seasons to come. The LB corps from our biggest defensive weakness to one with great promise for this season and the near future. We made our team weaknesses into strengths.
1. That's fair.

2. This is fine, and I do understand that some players are of higher value to certain teams that run certain schemes. But let me break this down for you: Nick Bolton is probably not going to be playing passing downs. And if he does, that's not what he was good at for the Tigers. So... you've drafted a two-down linebacker in the Hitchens mold 58th overall, with good passrushers and receivers on the board. That's just not a wise use of resources.

3. I absolutely don't think we should have reached for anyone, ever. Nor am I saying we should pass up on an "A" linebacker for a "C" wide receiver simply because we have a dire need there and WR is more valuable. I'm saying that I had four players on my board -- Dyami Brown, Terrace Marshall, Ronnie Perkins, and Carlos Basham -- who were all valuable at the low 2nd picks, who all played valuable positions that we had desperate needs at, and we punted for a linebacker (which we did need!) who can't play the pass particularly well.

4. All good points, I don't disagree.

But I would have taken Ronnie Perkins and entered the 2021 season with two starting-caliber defensive ends and a competent Blythe at center than further-packing our OL and leaving one DE position wide open, which we've done.
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