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https://theathletic.com/3134538/2022...rade-and-more/

Over the last three years, Keith Law focused plenty on the Royals’ crop of pitching prospects from the 2018 MLB Draft. Now that most of them have debuted, something else in the Royals’ system has Law’s attention: The revamped hitting development department, and what it means for the club’s top prospects.

“It’s remarkable, unprecedented in my memory at least,” Law said. “They flipped the whole system on its head.”

Law recently ranked four Royals in his top 100: Bobby Witt Jr. (No. 2), MJ Melendez (No. 27), Nick Pratto (No. 54) and Asa Lacy (No. 90). The system as a whole moved from No. 15 in 2021 to No. 7 in 2022.

His top-20 Royals prospects ranking featured a bevy of known talents such as Nick Loftin, Frank Mozzicato and Vinnie Pasquantino. It also mentioned sleepers such as Venezuelan outfielder Junior Marin, a 17-year-old who hit .380/.469/.696 in the Dominican Summer League.

Given that overview, we thought it’d be valuable to ask Law five questions about the Royals’ farm system and the potential that lies ahead.

A bunch of the 2018 MLB Draft class of pitchers has graduated from the list. As you look at what Daniel Lynch, Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar and Kris Bubic have done, what have you thought? And what do you expect, especially from Lynch and Kowar, who will enter their first seasons next year?

I don’t think the process is over for any of those guys. And the lost year for several in 2020, plus the challenge of pitchers getting to Triple A/the big leagues and adjusting to a different baseball, should temper our expectations for prospects as well. That said, Singer and Bubic have been about what I expected; Lynch a bit less; Kowar a lot less. Singer has never had a good pitch for left-handed batters, and that’s still true, so it’s not a surprise that he’s struggled with them.

Carlos Hernández is a guy who seemed to really impress in 2021 (a 3.68 ERA and 4.08 FIP in 85 2/3 innings with 74 strikeouts and 41 walks). What did you think of what he was able to do, given how you’d evaluated him in past years?

It was pretty fluky — pitchers generally aren’t much more effective from the stretch than they are with nobody on, but he was. He has a very effective four-seamer, and the slider has a chance to be a weapon for him, but I think he’s more likely a two-pitch reliever than a starter, especially with no real pitch to get lefties out. He should junk that curveball, too.

You mentioned, in regard to versatile prospect Nick Loftin, that it might make sense to move him. Given the Royals’ catcher situation with reigning All-Star and Silver Slugger Salvador Perez, what do you think when folks ask the question: Would it make sense to move MJ Melendez?

No.

Oh, perhaps you want more of an explanation? Perez is 31 and coming off a huge outlier year when he still barely managed a .300-plus on-base percentage. Catchers do not age well, given the extreme wear and tear of the position. Since 2000, only six catchers have managed 10+WAR from age 32 onward, and only one produced more than 15 WAR. All had better on-base skills than Perez does.

I know the Royals gave Perez a huge contract, but it’s a bet against the history of the position. Moving Melendez would destroy much of his value. It would also double down on a bet that Perez will age better than 90 percent of catchers in MLB history. I know sometimes you put a giant stack of chips on eight the hard way and then roll two fours, but that’s not the best way to bet.

Many have asked you, in relation to Melendez and Pratto, about the Royals’ hitting development processes. How do you view what the club has done holistically?

This was an organization that did not preach working the count and getting on base; if anything there were at least a few individual cases where the team tried to get the players to swing earlier in counts, especially players who could run, to put the ball in play (even by bunting) and let their speed play. But this was an org-wide philosophical shift, and one that I think reflects their understanding of how the next great Royals team will be built — they’re not building another high BABIP, strong defense club like the 2015 World Series winner. This team is going to get on base and put some balls in the seats.

I can’t say enough good things about it — their entire staff deserves so much credit, as do the players who implemented these changes.

You’ve covered the farm systems built by this specific front office for a long time; broadly, how would you assess its body of work?

I think my last answer gets at a lot of this. I wouldn’t want to give one grade or one report to their 15-plus years, because the way they’ve gone about acquiring and developing players has changed so much in that time. They have altered their philosophies as needed. When years of taking high school pitchers didn’t work, they shifted and went heavily for college arms, and now there are the makings of a very good rotation.

(Then they went back to high school arms in 2021, so we’ll have to see how this next group works out.)

I think this time around they’re going to get more production from players they signed as international free agents as well. Most of all, I’m always impressed when a front office realizes something isn’t working and is willing to say, “The way we were doing it was wrong, and we need to try a different approach.” It’s hard to admit you’re wrong, and harder when you’ve invested money and time into something that isn’t panning out.

Good for the Royals for doing it, and I hope the results they saw in the minors in 2021 result in gains in the majors in 2022 and beyond.

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