[staylor26]

Originally Posted by Quesadilla Joe

The round projection doesn’t match the glowing write up (or the grade) he made for him. He graded Nix higher than Penix, but Penix has a round projection of 1st-2nd, and McCarthy has a 1st round grade, but his grade is only .01 points higher than Nix’s. His comps are most likely how the players play stylistically, not ceiling, because he comped Caleb to Kyler Murray.

Zierlein’s draft profile for Nix:

Spoiler!

Prospect Grade
6.39
Will eventually be a plus starter


NFL Comparison
Tony Romo

Overview

Rare five-year starting quarterback whose play has matured in front of our eyes. Nix displays the accuracy, arm talent and athleticism consistent with today’s brand of pro quarterback. He can be punctual in getting the ball out at the top of his drop or he can work through progressions and beat defenses with second-reaction plays. He throws with good velocity and puts the ball on the money when throwing on the move. Nix has shown great improvement with his pocket poise. He’s capable of moving the sticks as a scrambler or as part of the running game. Some of his gaudy production has been driven by the Oregon offense’s design, but his talent clearly stands out. I’ve harbored bias from watching the overwhelmed version of Nix during his Auburn days, but as the saying goes, “tape don’t lie.” Nix appears more than ready to attack the league with an NFL-caliber skill set.

Strengths

* Good pre-snap recognition for expedited post-snap itinerary.
*Big hands to manipulate defenses with aggressive pump fakes.
*Shows ability to work through options and find what he likes.
*Generates quality velocity from a sudden, compact release.
*Ball comes out of his hand with good pace and without much effort.
*Impressive run-and-rip talent throwing accurately on the move.
*Play-extender with arm talent to win with secondary action as passer.
*Internal clock and athleticism help him avoid sacks.
*Toughness and talent to move the sticks on called runs.

Weaknesses

*Nearly 30 percent of his passes in 2023 were thrown behind the line of scrimmage, per Pro Football Focus.
*Tends to short-arm throws when blitz is leaking in.
*Decision-making can take a hit when he extends the play.
*Left easy touchdowns on the field due to overthrows.
*Bucket throws will come out a little flat.
*Needs to do a better job of throwing receivers away from coverage.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/bo-nix...e-fc1a8b4f4942

The mental gymnastics are priceless

The difference in the round projections are clearly related to upside. Even the people that like Nix in the draft community aren't making insane comparisons like "more mobile Drew Brees".

Nix is what he is, even if you like him as a prospect.