Originally Posted by kccrow
**** it, going balls deep in this mock too. I knew releasing this early was a bad idea and I'd change my mind. So here's a bit on why I did it...
I just really think you gotta put your chips down and go get a truly elite talent when you have the ammunition to do it while still retaining a few more darts in the top 100. Sitting idle at 29/30 is noble and could yield a couple of outstanding talents but I just feel like history has shown it is unlikely.
Could this be a draft where you get Eric Stokes and Greg Rousseau? Sure. Is it likely? Not so sure about that. Here's a brief history of the 29th and 30th picks:
2020: OT Isaiah Wilson, CB Noah Igbinoghene
2019: DE L.J. Collier, CB Deandre Baker
2018: DT Taven Bryan, CB Mike Hughes
2017: TE David Njoku, DE T.J. Watt
2016: DT Robert Nkemdiche, DT Vernon Butler
2015: WR Phillip Dorsett, FS/CB Damarious Randall
2014: DT Dominique Easley, FS/CB Jimmie Ward
2013: WR Cordarelle Patterson, LB Alec Ogletree
2012: SS Harrison Smith, WR A.J. Jenkins
If that list doesn't scare you a little bit, then I don't know what does. Of those 18 players, I'd call 5 good or better and that's Watt, Dorsett, Ward (when healthy), Ogletree, and Smith. Of the other 13, a solid 10 were pretty much shit or very subpar for 1st rounders.
I want Veach to push his chips in and go get a guy that's projected to be elite and I'm betting one of Hutchinson, Thibodeaux, or Walker is there at 6. Go get one of them. Could they go 1-2-3? Sure, it's not out of the realm of possibility. Then maybe you don't get so aggressive but I'd go back to my theory on getting a guy at the 11-13 range in Johnson if he's there.
If you can't get those guys, well then by all means sit tight and see what happens. I'll pound the table hard for Ebiketie at that point.
As for the rest, I'm sticking to my guns with Winfrey at 50. I'm enamored with his upside at both DE and DT. No harm in trying him at DE but don't **** him up like Speaks and leave him out there if it's not looking like it'll work. He can be a force inside, no doubt in my mind.
62 got tricky for me. I really want KC to grab a WR and I'm personally torn between Pierce, Watson (yes I think he's there at 62), and Metchie. Pierce, to me, just offers what the Chiefs seem to be going towards and that's big guys that can beat zone coverage. This was my thought earlier in the offseason, that Reid would navigate towards an offense that could beat zone as teams deploy more of it. I feel like Pierce is a bit of a reach at 62 but I also don't think he's there late in the 3rd either. He's big, he's fast, and he's smart. He can learn routes. I like the kid enough to take that shot. Metchie, he's a guy I think can be a really good slot player in the NFL but I'm not so sure about him outside. Watson is raw but I like his upside. I just don't think he produced enough against subpar competition as an older prospect.
In changing my mock at the top, retaining pick 135 was big for me. I wanted so badly to have Pierre Strong in it but I couldn't take him over Braxton Jones in my prior rendition. I'm putting him in because he's a guy I desperately want KC to end up with (which probably means he ends up a Bronco or Raider...).
I finished this off by changing my sleeper picks in the 7th up. I'm going back to Novil that I had early on at DT. He's going to be a nice player I think as a rotational NT.
I couldn't keep a near 26-year-old in D'Anthony Bell in my projection. He's a long shot to make a team and an even longer shot to get drafted at that age. I wouldn't be averse as a UDFA though. Anyhow, Nazeeh Johnson... I like this kid and I like his coverage. He's tenacious and he gets his hands on the ball a lot. He's an ankle-biter of a tackler but maybe he can grow there as he plays more at safety. You talk about guys that always end up around the football, he's one of those guys.
I was torn though, as I like some upside with a couple of other guys but especially Quandre Mosely out of Kentucky. He's a 6'1" guy at CB that ran a 4.38 and plays good press coverage. I also like Josh Thompson out of Texas as a CB convert to FS. He's fast and lays the hammer but I just don't think he sticks enough in coverage.
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