Quote:
Originally Posted by kccrow
Basically, I have no idea wtf SackSEER is but it sounds like some feeble attempt to project sacks based on a metric similar to RAS...
But then, they go and call Williams a "sleeper" despite a projection of only 12 sacks over his first 5 years. WTF?
Sounds like another ESPN useless algorithm based on arbitrary bullshit, kind of like QBR.
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SackSEER Intro
One tool that could potentially help answer that question is SackSEER, Football Outsiders' system for projecting college edge rushers. SackSEER uses pre-draft workout data along with college statistics to project the NFL pass-rushing prospects of defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers.
SackSEER agrees with the conventional wisdom that this is a generally strong and deep draft for edge rushers. That said, contrary to some draft hype, there is a considerable degree of uncertainty as to just who is most likely to succeed.
In SackSEER, Hutchinson, Thibodeaux and Walker are all effectively tied -- with only a small fraction of a sack separating their projections. Check out more detail on how SackSEER works here.
Below, we take a look at SackSEER's top prospects in the 2022 NFL draft, along with some similar prospects from previous drafts.
Methodology
SackSEER is based on a statistical analysis of all edge rushers drafted in the years 1998 through 2019, and measures the following:
The edge rusher's projected draft position. Specifically, the rankings from ESPN's Scouts Inc.;
An "explosion index" that measures the prospect's scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical leap and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts;
The prospect's score on the 3-cone drill;
A metric called "SRAM" which stands for "sack rate as modified." SRAM measures the prospect's per-game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry in the NFL draft and position switches during college;
The prospect's college passes defensed divided by college games played.