https://www.nfl.com/news/why-nfl-tea...ick-for-week-7
Main quote:
THING I DON'T LIKE: Titans RB Derrick Henry rushing for more than 117.5 yards against the Chiefs.
Henry has eclipsed 117.5 yards on the ground in four of six games in 2021, and he averages a league-best 130.5 rushing yards per game. His 783 yards rushing this season eclipses the ground totals of 26 NFL teams heading into Week 7. The Chiefs' defense is allowing 133.2 rushing yards per game (27th in the league).
So, why on earth am I making the argument that Henry will not surpass 117.5 yards on the ground?
Well, there's no denying it's a tough task for Kansas City, but I expect the Chiefs' strategy will be to create fronts that address the problems Henry causes. It's worth noting that Henry also leads the league in rushing yards when facing a stacked box (eight or more defenders) with 249. However, the Chiefs should be especially prepared to stop the Titans' zone concepts to continue their improvement in limiting teams from earning rushing first downs. They started Juan Thornhill over Daniel Sorensen at safety last week against the Washington Football Team and the change paid off. Kansas City limited Washington to a season-low 13 points and surrendered just six rushing first downs. (K.C.'s season average is 8.7 allowed per game, ranking 31st.)
The Titans' banged-up secondary will provide an opportunity for Patrick Mahomes and Co. to score, which means the Titans could be forced to throw the ball more than they'd like to. All this to say, Henry could be targeted as a receiver more than usual, but projects to finish with less than 117.5 rushing yards.