Quote:
Originally Posted by FAX
Thanks. I did mention that those were "my words and interpretation", did I not?
But you're right ... if the 80,000 cases in China represent 14% of the total "potentially undocumented", that's easy math and should be a reasonable number for the time being.
But while we're here, let's think this through a moment ...
For every 1 diagnosis they estimate 6 undocumented, right?
How did the "estimated" undocumented get the disease? From the documented? From another population of unknown and therefore "undocumented"? From each other?
FAX
|
The estimated undocumented would have contracted it from the known carriers who had the disease prior to the time frame used for this analysis (10-23 Jan 2020). In Bayesian simulation you have to account for some unknowns, both known and unknown (thanks for that one, Mr. Rumsfeld). Hate typing long answers on phone so I will revisit this when I get to my desk tomorrow.