[TLO]

Originally Posted by FAX

Basically, they've developed sophisticated computer models that allow them to estimate the extent and spread of the contagion in China both prior to and after the "outbreak". Based on that research, they believe that vastly more people contract the virus than was previously known.

And the vast majority of those are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic.

In other words (my words and interpretation), in Wuhan, probably 10 million people had the virus and didn't know it.

Essentially, the Chinese didn't know what they were dealing with until the number of cases involving health-compromised patients went critical.

Then there are a bunch of algorithms and charts and stuff that basically describe how ****ed up the Chinese handled this from the get-go.

Oh ... and they said this: [Control] measures along with changes in medical care-seeking behavior due to increased awareness of the virus and increased personal protective behavior (e.g., wearing of facemasks, social distancing, self-isolation when sick), likely altered the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak after 23 January. (In other words, things improved after that.)

Take care of yourself, Mr. TLO. All will be well.

FAX

Originally Posted by Stanley Nickels

Mathematical (Bayesian) model estimates that 86% of ALL Covid cases were unreported/undiagnosed prior to a travel ban/quarantine instituted in Wuhan late January. The model anticipates that the asymptomatic people were "less contagious" but still likely account for 70+% of all transmitted cases after that ban. That's from a cursory read-through. Important to note that this is a *probability* from a mathematical model, not actual data... But it's pretty strong given a tight confidence interval range.

Thank you both.