Quote:
Originally Posted by TLO
Mr. Fax,
I'd typically love to dive into this information but my brain is overloaded and I'm tired.
Can you give a brief rundown of the article?
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Mathematical (Bayesian) model estimates that 86% of ALL Covid cases were unreported/undiagnosed prior to a travel ban/quarantine instituted in Wuhan late January. The model anticipates that the asymptomatic people were "less contagious" but still likely account for 70+% of all transmitted cases after that ban. That's from a cursory read-through. Important to note that this is a *probability* from a mathematical model, not actual data... But it's pretty strong given a tight confidence interval range.