Quote:
Originally Posted by Third Eye
Yeah, people are going to spend their disposable income, just in different ways. There is no doubt that there will be local impacts, but writ large, there shouldn’t be much of an impact. That is of course unless there is an impact to the labor force population, but since this effects mostly people over 60, that seems unlikely.
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I think this is mostly right and the markets are overreacting. Disease outbreaks have never caused a recession. People drastically overestimate the size of entertainment type services to the total economy and the money saved on those things can be put into other purchases later this year.
The concern would be if the economy was already weak and the virus is what pops the bubble, that could be if there are large pockets of debt and risk on the books such that even a small demand shock can cause businesses to go under.