Zack Gifford of Birdsontheblack with a similar analysis. His estimates don't quite match mine but where he giveth here and there, he taketh here and there as well. We're in the ballpark of each other.
https://www.birdsontheblack.com/post...-the-cardinals
I'll note that the dude takes virtually the EXACT same approach I do. His conclusion is even a little cleaner:
Matt Carpenter, Andrew Knizner and Elehuris Montero for Arenado.
Seriously folks, if you think Arenado is getting Carlson in a trade or even getting moved straight across for Gorman, you have a dimmer opinion of Mozeliak than even
I do and at this point I'd consider letting my wife run the team ahead of Mozo. It isn't going to happen. The market for $35 million/season players will be 2-3 teams at most and I just cannot believe that our local clown will bid against himself that badly.
The Yankees got the Marlins to take their shit contract (Castro, IIRC) in the Stanton deal and they didn't include ANYTHING in the package with him; some scrub organizational depth pieces. You just cannot overstate the impact of mega-contracts on a players trade value.