Quote:
Originally Posted by rabblerouser
Originally Posted by rabblerouser View Post
That's the thing, though - the Ravens don't run cover 0 exclusively; they mix their coverages up - that's what makes them so effective.
The Raiders ran a BUNCH of cover 0 and a bunch of straight man, and they* were able to have some success with it, especially in the first quarter and against the run. But eventually, Mahomes made them pay.
Last year, the Ravens mixed in cover 3 and soft zones to confuse Patrick's timing - they'd go cover 0, cover 0, cover 0, cover 3...and Patrick's timing would still be cover 0. Then they'd go cover 0, cover 0, cover 0, soft zone - again, jacking with his timing.
I expect him to be ready for this mixing of coverages this week. I'm sure they have some new wrinkles, but Mahomes has seen at least 90% of what they're going to throw at him.
Their offense vs our defense is what has me worried. We have to hit that QB. Early and often. Rattle him and DO NOT allow him to run outside the tackles, and DO NOT allow him to sit back and throw those bombs. DO NOT give him the chunks of yardage that he's taken in the first 2 games of the season. Make him try to be cerebral and work his way down the field...
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Originally I was going to argue against your post, but after watching both the Ravens' games this year, I'm inclined to agree with you. Specifically I wasn't sure we had the personnel to get a good hits on Lamar, but we did so several times in last year's playoff game.
And he got hit a few times in this years two games already. The Cardinals put a few hard licks on him, which honestly surprised me. The Cards don't actually have a pass rush, so far as anyone here in town can tell.
Something else I noticed in that game: the majority of the time that the Ravens sent four on the pass rush, they didn't get home. Against one of the worst, if not the worst OL in the NFL this year. Though I think that part of their problem is the newly installed offense. The Cards OL looked out of sync and not very comfortable throughout the game.
And yet the Ravens couldn't get to Murray most of the time, unless they sent 5 or 6. I only saw them break down the Cards OL a handful of times when they 4.
They just about every snap kept at least 7 men in the box, with an 8th man in the near vicinity. That 8th man was invariably looking inside for the run. Running plays might be tough sledding.
They're secondary somehow lost track of Larry Fitzgerald on a consistent basis, in spite of the fact that they only had Christian Kirk and KeeSean Johnson to worry about, a first and a second year guy. The Cards TE was basically a non-factor throughout the game. So was Crabtree.
And when I say they lost track of Fitzy, I mean a couple plays no Raven was literally within 10 yards of him.
I think the Chiefs are going to have some trouble in the running game, especially with Fisher out this weekend, but I think the Ravens are going to have a lot of trouble with Kelce, Sammy, and especially Robinson. Robinson will have an absolutely huge game if the Ravens try to cover him with whoever they had on Fitz (I don't believe for one second Harbaugh will go that way). But if they do, that guy couldn't catch Fitz; how bad would it be with Robinson?
Defensively, the big issue is obviously Brown. He can flat out run. I don't believe we have a DB that can catch that kid if he gets up to top speed. And it only takes him about 3 strides to hit redline.
As for Lamar.
He has definitely improved as a passer, but I believe this is almost entirely scheme. I noticed that he was most successful out of bootlegs, where the field is effectively cut in half (1-2 reads), or when he knew before the snap where he was going with the ball.
Most of his long passes were the result of one of these two types of plays.
When he had to read the defense, i.e., 5 step drop and survey the field is when he missed most of his throws. I'd have to go back and look to be certain, but I'm pretty sure he missed more than he connected in that situation, against a non-existent Cardinals pass rush.
Lamar also had at least three or four short/intermediate passes down the middle that were completely off-target. I'm talking about essentially perfectly executed non-pressured plays until Lamar let go of the ball. So his accuracy still needs some work. There was also a couple down the sidelines that just didn't look right to me. They were misses, but more because of the angle or maybe the timing, than they were a product of pressure or throwing into coverage.
The Ravens two OTs are pretty good from what I could tell. Rushing around the edge is probably not going to work. Either the Chiefs are going to have to delay blitz, or they're going to have to run some kind of stunts/twists against those tackles. Or some combination of the above.
Summary:
In spite of the loss of both Fisher and Hill, and the significant improvement of Lamar's passing game, I still believe the Chiefs are going to win by at least two scores on Sunday. This feeling is based mostly on the perception that the Raven's defense isn't what it was last year. They aren't as good up front pass-rushing, and their CBs, while fairly fast, are prone to losing their assignments. And Earl Thomas can't be everywhere.
Should've also mentioned the Ravens TE. He's going to be a problem. Looked big and fairly fast, with good hands and decent route-running capability. Not afraid to be physical.