| KChiefs1 |
01-31-2022 02:30 AM |
***Official 2022 Royals Season Repository Thread***
https://royalsfarmreport.com/2022/01...ct-rankings-1/
RFR’s 2022 Preseason Royals Prospect Rankings
by
Alex Duvall
Welcome back. Another year is upon us which means it’s time to break out another edition of the Royals Farm Report preseason prospect rankings. As always, these rankings are a cumulation of what is now seven different lists compiled by the guys on staff here. Jared Perkins, a new member of our staff, was able to get involved this year adding a new angle to our list. A couple of things to remember about prospect lists:
– They DO NOT MATTER. This is a list from a group of bloggers that love the Royals. We watch as many games as possible, do as much digging as possible, and try like hell to get you the best list possible so you can have an idea of what the Royals have coming through the minor league system. We love what we do and we love sharing that love with you. There’s no reason to be upset about a list. I promise you JJ Piccolo and the Royals front office aren’t using this list in their evaluations. So, enjoy the list, but please don’t take it too seriously.
– This list is a combination of seven individual lists. There’s no one person responsible for the placement of the prospects on this list.
– This list won’t be perfect. There will certainly be someone we rank way too low that makes us look silly in a couple of years. We do what we can, but understand that this is more for record keeping than “player #14 is better than player #15.” Pay more attention to tiers, and groups of prospects, rather than each individual ranking.
Alright, that should cover most of our bases. Thank you all so much for getting this far. We appreciate all of you for your support over the years. This will be our fourth annual preseason prospect rankings here at Royals Farm Report. Just for funsies, here’s a quick look at the top 5 prospects on each of our previous preseason lists.
2018:
1) Nick Pratto
2) Khalil Lee
3) Seuly Matias
4) Hunter Dozier
5) MJ Melendez
2019:
1) MJ Melendez
2) Brady Singer
3) Daniel Lynch
4) Khalil Lee
5) Nicky Lopez
2020:
1) Bobby Witt Jr.
2) Jackson Kowar
3) Daniel Lynch
4) Brady Singer
5) Erick Pena
2021:
1) Bobby Witt Jr.
2) Daniel Lynch
3) Asa Lacy
4) Jackson Kowar
5) Erick Pena
A couple of those names from 2021 might look pretty similar this year, but there’s gonna be some new faces in there too. I’m excited to get this going. Thank you, again, very much for enjoying this with us. You can read about the 23 players we listed as “Honorable Mention” and players 2-50 below. Now it’s time to talk about boy wonder. Enjoy!
Quote:
#1: Bobby Witt Jr., SS
Age: 21
B/T: R/R
Ht/Wt: 6′ 1″ 200′
Rule 5 Eligible: 2023
Acquired: 2019 MLB Draft, Round 1
2021 Stats (AA/AAA): .290/.361/.575/.936, 33 HR, 72 XBH, 29 SB, 9.0% BB%, 23.2% K%, 143 wRC+
Here’s a short list of 21-year olds to do some of the things that Bobby Witt Jr. did between AA and AAA last year.
30+ HR (since 2006):
– Wil Myers (2012)
– Mike Moustakas (2010)
30+ 2B (since 2018):
– Eguy Rosario (2021)
– Drew Waters (2019)
– Cristian Pache (2019)
– Bo Bichette (2018)
– Ke’Bryan Hayes (2018)
– Luis Urias (2018)
20+ HR and 20+ SB (since 2006):
– Luis Robert (2019)
– Dylan Carlson (2019)
– Kyle Tucker (2018)
– Joc Pederson (2013)
What Bobby Witt Jr. did in his first full professional season is nothing short of remarkable. He legitimately had one of the best overall seasons we’ve ever seen from a kid his age and he had never even played above rookie league when the season began. He’s got a really good chance to begin his second full professional season on the Opening Day roster for the big league club which would make him one of the youngest Royals hitters ever. There are only seven Royals players that recorded at least 500 PA with the club by their age-22 season:
– George Brett
– Eric Hosmer
– Clint Hurdle
– Billy Butler
– Carlos Beltran
– Johnny Damon
– Adalberto Mondesi
You’d have to think that Bobby Witt Jr. would have a chance of reaching 500 PA on the season if he started the year with Kansas City. Even if he doesn’t start the year in Kansas City, there’s still an outside shot that he’s called up so quickly he could still get 500 PA. I know there will be pretty lofty expectations for Witt to begin the year in Kansas City, but I really don’t think it’ll be much later than May 1st even in a worst case scenario (assuming he’s healthy).
I won’t spend too much time here. You guys know the deal. At best, this kid is going to be a franchise-altering player that can lock down the left side of the infield, hit 30+ HR and steal 20+ bases, and hopefully lead this team back to the playoffs. Even at worst, he’s probably a 20/20 guy that plays great defense and is still worth 3-4 WAR a year. The approach is still a work in progress, and the swing-and-miss concerns are still valid, but the tools are SO loud that there’s just no way this kid isn’t productive, almost immediately, in some capacity. You just rarely see these kinds of tools all packaged into one player like this.
Which isn’t even to speak of his pedigree and maturity beyond the field. You all know by now that Witt’s father, Bobby Witt Sr., is a former #3 overall pick and long-time big leaguer. It’s so funny to me that Kansas City is going to have two kids like this running the show at the Truman Sports Complex for the next decade or so. Honestly, I don’t really know what the next best combo in sports would be right now. Some combination of Herbert/Stafford and Trout? Seriously, what other city has two stars like this on their baseball and football teams?
It’s going to be a fun run, Kansas City. Don’t waste time worrying about the day that Bobby Witt Jr. may not be wearing a Royals uniform anymore. We’ve got six or seven years minimum to relish it. There’s a chance that this kid will go down as one of the two or three greatest players in the history of the organization. There’s obviously a chance he’s more like Alex Gordon than George Brett, but to be talking about Alex Gordon as a potential floor for any player should speak volumes about how talented he is. The 2022 Royals are going to be fun to watch because so many of the guys that we’ve talked about in our preseason rankings should be debuting, but the 2023 Royals really could set up the beginning of one of the best windows this team has had since the early 80’s. The waiting is almost over.
#2: MJ Melendez, C
Age: 23
B/T: L/R
Ht/Wt: 6′ 1″ 190′
Rule 5 Eligible: N/A
Acquired: 2017 MLB Draft, Round 2
2021 Stats (AA/AAA): .288/.386/.625/1.011, 41 HR, 66 XBH, 3 SB, 14.1% BB%, 21.7% K%, 162 wRC+
Here is a list of players, 22 or younger, with a better wRC+ than Melendez’ 162 between AA and AAA over the last 8 years, with their career big league wRC+ in parenthesis:
– Yordan Alvarez: 170 (153)
– Trent Grisham: 166 (106)
– Gavin Lux: 166 (86)
– Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 194 (135)
– Nate Lowe: 169 (113)
– Eloy Jimenez: 168 (117)
– Franmil Reyes: 168 (119)
– Alex Bregman: 176 (140)
– David Dahl: 163 (93)
– Kyle Schwarber: 185 (118)
– Domingo Santana: 168 (110)
– Max Kepler: 167 (101)
– Kris Bryant: 192 (134)
– Mookie Betts: 168 (135)
– Dilson Herrera: 166 (88)
– Joc Pederson: 164 (114)
There are a few misses on there, but for the most part you have a laundry list of productive big league hitters, and only a few of them bring a significant defensive impact to the table the way Melendez does. Back in 2019, Franmil Reyes hit 37 HR, struck out in 28% of his PA, had just a .311 OBP, but a 111 wRC+. That same year, Kyle Schwarber hit 38 HR, struck out 25% of the time, had a .339 OBP, and a 119 wRC+. I could see some kind of similar outcome for Melendez in the big leagues. I don’t think I expect him to strike out as little as he did in 2021, but if he hits for the type of power he’s capable of and shows off Gold Glove-caliber defense behind home plate, it won’t matter. Look at Salvador Perez last year. A .316 OBP led him to a 3.4 fWAR season and they ripped him apart for his defense. Over at Baseball Reference, where they don’t weigh framing, he was worth 5.3 bWAR.
It’s probably not fair to put that kind of expectation on Melendez, but it is absolutely something that I think he is capable of. Maybe he doesn’t ever hit 48 HR to lead the league, but I think he’s absolutely capable of bopping 40 at some point in his career. He’s got legitimate 70-grade raw power and a new swing that allows him to access that power so much more often than he used to. The transformation that he made from 2019 to 2021 is nothing short of a miracle. Here’s a snippet of what I wrote in Nick Pratto’s writeup:
“It was the kind of season that people do not come back from. FanGraphs MiLB data goes back to 2006, and from what I can tell, nobody that had been that bad at High-A has gone on to be a successful big league hitter. We’ll get to MJ Melendez on Thursday, because he was somehow even worse, but these two were almost completely falling off prospect radars into the 2020 season.”
MJ Melendez struck out in nearly 40% of his PA back in 2019. After having a ton of success in Low-A in 2018 despite striking out in over 30% of his PA there, the strikeouts had become a legitimate issue that were now hindering Melendez from having hardly any success. Cutting your K% almost in half, from nearly 40% to damn near 20%, DOES NOT HAPPEN. I didn’t go back and look but I’d be willing to bet a ton of money that there aren’t three examples of a prospect having 400+ PA with a > 39% K% one year and then 400+ PA of < 22% K% the next season he played in MiLB. I know we’ve been talking about it for what feels like forever now, but I cannot stress enough how much trouble the entire system was in at the end of 2019. The work that MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, Drew Saylor, Alec Zumwalt, and others have put in to resurrect the careers of these young men is nothing short of franchise altering.
I mentioned in Asa Lacy’s writeup that I would have Melendez as a top-30 prospect in all of baseball. Baseball America has him #42, and Baseball Prospectus has him #35, so it’s not like I’m going out on some kind of limb here, but I legitimately think he’s still somehow being underrated on national lists. Maybe some of that is the memory of 2019. It’s hard to blame anyone for having a hard time getting past how bad that year was. But Melendez became the first catcher to be the MiLB HR King in a long time last year and the power is legitimate 30+ HR in the big leagues power. There’s a group of ~25 prospects I understand having ahead of him, but I wouldn’t argue with you if you wanted him in your top-15 either. The kid is going to be an impact bat in the middle of a big league lineup and he’s going to do it while catching a good amount of the time.
Needless to say, I couldn’t really be more excited about Melendez and the season he had in 2021. I cannot describe to you guys how important his resurgence is to the future of this franchise. He and Pratto both. There aren’t many systems with five players in their organization like Witt Jr., Melendez, Pratto, Loftin, and Pasquantino. I’d argue that all five of them have top-100 arguments in some capacity and I fully expect all five to make an impact in the big leagues in the next couple of seasons. We’ll have to wait to see what extent of an impact they can make, but the sky is just the beginning if everything breaks the Royals way. #InSaylorWeTrust #ZumwaltSaylor2022
#3: Asa Lacy, LHP
Age: 22
B/T: L/L
Ht/Wt: 6′ 4″ 215′
Rule 5 Eligible: 2023
Acquired: 2020 MLB Draft, Round 1
2021 Stats (A+): 52.0 IP, 5.19 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 33.3% K%, 17.3% BB%, 1.58 WHIP
I’m sure there will be people who see this and wonder why we still have Asa Lacy ranked ahead of Nick Pratto while Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus have already begun dropping Lacy from their top-100 lists. The reason is pretty simple: there aren’t five minor league pitchers with better raw stuff than Asa Lacy. They just don’t exist. You cannot teach the kind of stuff Lacy possesses. His delivery creates some unique challenges for hitters, especially left-handed hitters, and he possesses an arsenal of above average pitches that make it impossible for hitters to camp on the fastball, which is a dominant force by itself. Among ALL pitchers to throw 50 IP (and make 5 starts) between Low-A and AAA last year, Asa Lacy finished 5th in SwStr%. When he’s in the strike zone, he’s damn near unhittable.
I was reading an article today over at RotoGraphs, the fantasy baseball sister of FanGraphs, and the author had Asa Lacy ranked as the 180th best SP option for 2022 drafts. That was ahead of Nick Lodolo, who tore up AA last year, George Kirby, Jackson Kowar, Mike Minor, Brad Keller, J.A. Happ, and Chris Archer. Think about the Minor and Keller mentions for a second. Those guys are GUARANTEED to break camp in a big league rotation so long as they’re healthy. Asa Lacy doesn’t even have 60 professional innings under his belt yet. I mentioned on the RFR Podcast that we recorded last night (should be out later today) that Lacy already has big league stuff. He doesn’t need any advancements or upticks in his pitches to be a successful big league pitcher. There are quite literally just two things he needs to do: stay healthy and throw strikes. Not that that’s an easy task, just that it’s easier for guys like this to soar through the minors than guys like, say Frank Mozzicato, who throw strikes, have great pitchability, and you’re just waiting for the stuff to develop.
There’s no good way to sugarcoat that 2021 was a disappointing season for Asa Lacy. I get it. The walks were out of control and then he goes down with an injury before we get to see him make any kind of significant adjustments. He only made four outings in the Arizona Fall League, but he hit 100 mph while he was there and, quite frankly, somehow looked more dominant in three of those four outings than he did in most of his outings at High-A. He wasn’t around the zone nearly enough in High-A, and still struck out a third of all the hitters he faced while he was there. Even with that, his ERA was north of 5.00. I understand the caution flags and I understand why folks are taking him off of their top-100 lists. I’m just here to tell you that I think this is way too premature and way too reactionary to a guy that never looked comfortable on the mound last year and we now know that may very well be due to the injury he suffered midway through the season.
The problem with backing off of Lacy right now is that he only needs a couple of things to go his way and he’s instantly a top-30 prospect in baseball again. If you had me rank the Royals top 5 prospects on a national level right now, I’d probably have BWJ 1 or 2, Melendez top 30, Lacy top 60, and Pratto somewhere between 75-90. I really don’t think there are 75 players in all of Minor League Baseball that you’d rather bet on than Lacy. You cannot teach a player to throw his raw stuff. You can teach them to throw strikes, you can try to help them work to stay healthy, but you cannot teach them to throw 100 with his slider, changeup, and curveball combination. Like I said, despite all the command issues, there aren’t five pitchers in the minors with better stuff than he’s got. The control certainly needs improvement, but as soon as it does Lacy instantly becomes an option to get big league hitters out. I don’t think we see him in the big leagues until 2023, but he’s still got top of a rotation quality stuff if he can put it all together.
#4: Nick Pratto, 1B
Age: 23
B/T: L/L
Ht/Wt: 6′ 1″ 215′
Rule 5 Eligible: N/A
Acquired: 2017 MLB Draft, Round 1
2021 Stats (AA/AAA): .265/.385/.602/.988, 36 HR, 71 XBH, 12 SB, 15.2% BB%, 28.8% K%, 156 wRC+
What is even left to be said about this kid? In 2019 there were 260 hitters that received at least 250 PA at the High-A level. Only 20 of them had a worse wRC+ than Nick Pratto. Only 16 had a worse K%. Only 47 swung and missed more often than he did. In almost literally every sense of the word, Nick Pratto had a horrendous second full season in professional baseball. It was the kind of season that people do not come back from. FanGraphs MiLB data goes back to 2006, and from what I can tell, nobody that had been that bad at High-A has gone on to be a successful big league hitter. We’ll get to MJ Melendez on Thursday, because he was somehow even worse, but these two were almost completely falling off prospect radars into the 2020 season.
Here was my writeup on Pratto heading into that 2020 season that wasn’t, just for context:
“I really wish I could just forget all about Nick Pratto’s 2019 season, but unfortunately it was bad enough that we can’t. We’re not even three years removed from Pratto being the 14th overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft and I’m not exactly sure what to make of his prospect status. On one hand, the kid has handled his failures with a maturity you don’t always see in a 21-year old, and his work ethic suggests he’s capable of fighting through this. On the other hand, there’s not a single example of a player hitting as poorly as Pratto did in High-A and then going on to be a successful big leaguer. Obviously there are circumstances that add nuance to every individual, but it’s hard to overlook Pratto’s struggles from last season. I will say this, however. If there’s anyone that can get a high-caliber draft pick back on track and get him to the big leagues, it’s the Kansas City Royals.”
We ranked him 27th on our preseason list, with fellow first base prospect Vinnie Pasquantino ranked right behind him at #28. I mentioned at the time that it wouldn’t take much for Vinnie to pass Pratto in our rankings, but then we obviously didn’t have a 2020 season to evaluate. By preseason of 2021, there had been all kinds of rumors swirling about the progress that Pratto had made at the alt-site and during fall instructs, so we bumped him to #23 on our preseason rankings. The swing had apparently changed a bit, giving him access to more power, and the reports on him out of the front office were just too good to ignore.
I’d say they knew what they were talking about. Nick Pratto’s .375 ISO was the highest ISO posted of any hitter in any AAA league last summer. The only 22-year old to post a better ISO at the AAA level since 2006 is Yordan Alvarez in 2019 (.399). The only other one even close was Anthony Rizzo. The power that Nick Pratto brings to the plate is legit, and his ability to access that power in games is legit. The swing-and-miss concerns with Pratto are also legit, but we’ve quite literally only seen his power production replicated one other time at the AAA level, so that should balance out in some capacity in the big leagues. Pratto doesn’t quite have the raw power of MJ Melendez I don’t think, but he is so good at seeking out pitches that he can drive and his swing is so geared towards lifting the ball to his pull side that he should hit plenty of HR in the big leagues.
None of this is even to speak of Pratto’s defensive ability at first base and the leadership qualities he’s shown while in the minor leagues. Pratto took Bobby Witt Jr. under his wing in some capacity at AA last spring and the relationship that those two developed as roommates was obvious to anyone who watched that team with semi-regularity. Pratto also has a strong relationship with fellow 2017-draftee MJ Melendez, which has been made apparent over and over again as the two have abused runners with back picks to first base over a dozen times in their minor league careers. Pratto is a legitimate Gold Glove candidate at first base the day he arrives in the big leagues (he won the award at the minor league level last year). He’s got the ability to scoop the ball around the bag like Hosmer did, he’s got as good of an arm or better as Hosmer, but he’s got way more range than Hosmer ever thought of having. Not that defense at first base is the most important thing in the world, but it’s certainly an elite skill that Pratto possesses that should aid in his overall value a little bit.
Vinnie Pasquantino could give the Royals something of a GOOD problem moving forward, having two left-handed 1B/DH only types to try to fit into the same roster, but this is certainly something that Royals fans shouldn’t be worried about. The Royals made it work with Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler as well as Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales in the past, and they’ll make it work with Pasquantino and Pratto. Royals fans ought to be really, really excited about the future of this club, because the middle of the order is going to be stacked with left-handed hitting thumpers. Oh, and some guy named Salvador Perez.
#5: Nick Loftin, UTIL
Age: 23
B/T: R/R
Ht/Wt: 6′ 1″ 180′
Rule 5 Eligible: 2023
Acquired: 2020 MLB Draft, Round 1
2021 Stats (A+): .289/.373/.463/.837, 10 HR, 37 XBH, 11 SB, 10.2% BB%, 14.6% K%, 130 wRC+
Here’s a bit of where Nick Loftin ranked in certain categories among all High-A hitters age 22 and younger last summer:
– SwStr%: 1st
– LD%: 16th
– 2B: 14th
– BA: 6th
– OBP: 5th
– OPS: 9th
– wRC+: 5th
– K%: 3rd
– BB/K: 4th
– wOBA: 6th
All of this after the dude started his professional career going 9-47 (.191) through the first couple of weeks of the season after missing most of 2020 during the shutdown. From May 23rd through the end of the season, Loftin hit .304 with a 140 wRC+ and was legitimately one of the better players in all of Minor League Baseball. He runs the bases well, steals his fair share of bags, plays phenomenal defense at several different positions, refuses to strike out, walks his fair share, hits a bunch of doubles, and is just an all-around solid player that every system needs.
During the 2020 draft cycle Loftin drew a bunch of comps to Whit Merrifield for his offensive profile and defensive versatility. At the time, I wasn’t entirely sure how much I liked the comps because I think Whit and Loftin do different things well, but I’m on board with the comp now in terms of overall value. Both guys profile similarly on offense. They’ll both hit a ton of doubles, double digit home runs, and for a high average. The biggest difference between the two in my opinion is that Loftin has a much higher potential to draw some walks and probably (definitely) won’t ever lead the league in stolen bases. Defensively, I actually think Loftin is capable of handling SS, 2B, and 3B in the big leagues, where Whit is more limited to 2B and the corner outfield spots. So, again, I may have gotten a little too caught up in the specifics during the draft process, but I don’t hate the comp anymore as it relates to overall prospect value.
Speaking of overall prospect value, there aren’t a ton of prospects in MiLB with a safer floor than Loftin. Alex Verdugo hit just 13 HR, had a 107 wRC+, and rated pretty bad defensively last year in the big leagues and was still worth 2.0 fWAR. If Loftin proves to have value as a swiss army knife on defense and can just hit .280 with a respectable BB/K, he’ll easily be a productive every day big leaguer. I’m not suggesting that he will make any All-Star Games, but I think the chances that he’s a valuable piece on a playoff team are really, really good. There’s nothing the kid is really bad at which is half the battle to becoming a big leaguer in the first place. I know Loftin doesn’t have the same kind of upside as a guy like Alec Marsh or even Erick Pena, but the high floor will keep him locked into our top 5 Royals prospects for the foreseeable future. Loftin figures to start the season with AA Northwest Arkansas, and while I’m not certain there will be a place for him in the big leagues in 2022, I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see him really early on in 2023.
#6: Jonathan Bowlan, RHP
Age: 25
B/T: R/R
Ht/Wt: 6′ 6″ 240′
Rule 5 Eligible: N/A
Acquired: 2018 MLB Draft, Round 2
2021 Stats (AA): 17 IP, 25 K, 3 BB, 13 H
I got to watch Bowlan’s first three starts of the 2021 season on MiLB.tv, and then I was at the game in Springfield when he tore his UCL. When I tell you that Jonathan Bowlan was about to sky-rocket up prospect lists…do y’all remember back in Spring Training of 2019? Chris Paddack came out pitching for San Diego and was blowing the doors off big league hitters. He made the Opening Day roster, almost instantly jumped into the top 50 or so of every major top-100 list, and became like the next big thing for a few weeks? Jonathan Bowlan was about to do that in 2021.
I can’t describe to you how excited I was during Bowlan’s 0.2 inning performance in Springfield. He was popping 97 at the top of the zone and legitimately making the Cardinals’ best hitters look stupid. I’ve seen Bowlan throw no-hitters in the minor leagues before. I have never seen him look as dominant as he did for two batters last May. That was different. That was a Bowlan I hadn’t seen yet. We always knew the control was there. He’s probably got the best command of any pitcher in the organization. The slider and changeup always figured to play as average secondary offerings to the fastball. The fastball has always been fine, typically 92-94 with some heavy sink to it. But last May he had figured out how to elevate the zone and bring some high octane velocity with it.
Tommy John Surgery is no guarantee. I know we kind of like to chalk it up as just another thing in the baseball community, and it’s certainly still worlds better than having shoulder issues, but it’s fair to be cautious about how quickly Bowlan can return with that level of stuff. If he ever fully recovers. So far, everything sounds great in his rehab and throwing progress. I have no reason to think that he won’t make a full recovery and be the same guy I saw in Springfield again. I really only caution you to say this: without the Tommy John Surgery, Bowlan would probably be our top pitching prospect right now. Not that he had the same kind of dominant stuff as Asa Lacy, just that would be having more success at a higher level than Lacy and may well have debuted in the big leagues last September.
Whenever Bowlan is ready for game action again, it’ll be tough to peg where he’ll start his season, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it was with AAA Omaha. The Royals had to add Bowlan to the 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, which means he’s only one injury away from being called up once he gets his feet under him. I know the 2018 draft has already produced five pitchers that have made big league starts for Kansas City, but there’s still a non-zero chance that Bowlan winds up being the best of the bunch.
#7: Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B
Age: 24
B/T: L/L
Ht/Wt: 6′ 4″ 245′
Rule 5 Eligible: 2022
Acquired: 2019 MLB Draft, Round 11
2021 Stats (A+/AA): .300/.394/.563/.957, 24 HR, 64 XBH, 12.5% BB%, 12.5% K%, 154 wRC+
I am not over exaggerating, even a little bit, when I tell you that Vinnie Pasquantino had one of the best offensive seasons we’ve seen in the minor leagues in a long time. I wrote an article back in August that kind of put into context just how good he was, but here’s a quick look at what I’m talking about.
In 2021, Vinnie Pasquantino was a 23-year old that split time between High-A and AA. In 237 PA at the AA level, he walked more than he struck out, hit more XBH than he struck out, and posted a wRC+ of 153. Here’s a quick list of other hitters to do that since 2006:
– Alex Bregman 2016
– Mookie Betts 2014
That’s it…that’s the list. That’s the number of hitters age 23 or younger to match the feat that Pasquantino accomplished in 2021.
By absolutely no means am I suggesting that you should expect Alex Bregman or Mookie Betts level production from Pasquantino. For one, Bregman was 22 and Betts was 21 when they accomplished the feats that Pasquantino accomplished at the age of 23. For two, the offensive environments were a little more friendly in 2021 than they’d been in the past, but wRC+ cuts through that so that’s only sort of an asterisk. Thirdly, Betts and Bregman both play Gold Glove caliber defense on the corners while Pasquantino is a 1B/DH only, so there’s that to consider as well.
I am, however, absolutely telling you that Pasquantino is going to be a productive big league bat in some capacity. He may not be a perennial All-Star or anything, but what if you could get something between Billy Butler and Kendrys Morales out of him? You’d certainly take that in the middle of your lineup for the next half decade or so from a guy on his rookie contract. Here’s a quick look at Butler and Morales for reference:
Billy Butler, 2009: 21 HR, 51 doubles, 122 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR
Kendrys Morales, 2015: 22 HR, 41 doubles, 131 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
I don’t think it’s unrealistic at all to think that Pasquantino could give you that at some point. Hell, his Steamer Projections for 2022 already think he’s capable of a 117 wRC+, meaning he’d be 17% better than league average. Not that the projections are ever perfect, but they usually give you an idea of what a player’s minor league numbers mean in a historical context and Vinnie’s are off the freaking charts. He has absolutely earned any top-100 conversations that he’ll be a part of, and I don’t think it’s crazy to suggest that he could wind up slotting into the big league lineup every day by the end of July. The Royals will need to move one or both of Carlos Santana and Ryan O’Hearn to make room for him, but that shouldn’t be an issue. It is 100% fair to be super excited about Pasquantino’s future with this club.
#8: Angel Zerpa, LHP
Age: 22
B/T: L/L
Ht/Wt: 6′ 0″ 22′
Rule 5 Eligible: N/A
Acquired: International Free Agent
2021 Stats (A+/AA): 87 IP, 4.34 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 29.2% K%, 7.4% BB%, 1.26 WHIP
I was dead wrong about Angel Zerpa. Here’s my writeup on Zerpa from last preseason:
“I’m not ready to crown Zerpa as the next “guy” just yet, but he is certainly impressive. The lefty can flash mid to upper-90’s with his fastball and has a hard breaking ball to go with it. The Royals added him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft this past offseason, and it’s easy to understand why. Zerpa was really good in rookie ball last year and should move pretty quickly through the lower levels of MiLB.”
This, mind you, after I think we left him off our preseason top 75 in 2020 (IIRC) and I spent the 2021 offseason saying I thought he’d be a reliever long-term. I just couldn’t have been more wrong about the development that Angel Zerpa would see in his fastball. It’s a legitimate plus pitch now, sitting in the mid-90’s, and I think it’s another great example of why Royals fans should be really excited for the future of the Royals pitching development staff. Zerpa has always had plus command. He’s always shown a good feel to pitch. His slider and changeup have always shown good shape. He just didn’t throw very hard and I really didn’t believe there was any deception to his delivery.
It did not take me very long in 2021 to realize how wrong I was about that. His fastball now carries with excellent velocity, his slider can be a wipeout offering at times, and his changeup is a legitimate big league offering to keep right-handed hitters from camping on his fastball. I was genuinely in awe at how his fastball played against big league hitters in that one start he made last summer. I think there’s a legitimate chance that Zerpa breaks camp with the big league club, and I think he’s got as good a shot as anyone for the fifth spot in the rotation. Even if they break him in with the bullpen, I think he’ll be an excellent left-handed relief option until there’s a need for him in the rotation. Needless to say, I’m REALLY excited to see this kid in 2022. Zerpa offers the Royals a few things:
1. Results in their international free agent investments
2. Results in their pitching development process
3. A legitimately good, young, controllable left-handed starter to go with that 2018 draft class
Be excited, Royals fans. There’s more coming.
#9: Alec Marsh, RHP
Age: 24
B/T: R/R
Ht/Wt: 6′ 2″ 220′
Rule 5 Eligible: 2022
Acquired: 2019 MLB Draft, Round 2
2021 Stats (AA): 25.1 IP, 4.97 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 39.6% K%, 12.3% BB%, 1.30 WHIP
There were rumors surrounding the idea that Alec Marsh could potentially pitch his way onto top-100 lists last year with a good season between AA and AAA. Marsh was doing just that through his first six starts of the season, but then the injury bug bit him in June and Marsh did not return until he got a couple of innings in the Arizona Fall League. It’s pretty easy to see why we were so excited for Marsh heading into 2021. The fastball was nearing triple digits, the slider was making AA hitters look stupid, and he struck out nearly 40% of the hitters he faced in his first go outside of rookie ball. The walks were a little bit of an issue, but it was his first 25 innings of game action since 2019 so I’m willing to look past that a bit.
Marsh has legitimate top-100 stuff when he’s healthy. Hell, he might have the most advanced repertoire in the system when he’s healthy. In the sake of transparency, I almost ranked Marsh as the best pitching prospect in the system on my personal list. I still wound up with him right around here, but I realllllly wanted to make him my #1 pitcher. The stuff is legitimately that good. Again, a fastball that sits in the upper-90’s, a wipeout slider, and a really nice third offering in his changeup. I cautioned him down a little bit due to the walks and the health concerns, but I mean it when I say he could easily pitch his way onto top-100 lists if he can prove he’s healthy this spring. If he hasn’t debuted by mid-season, and some of the other guys on this list graduate, he could flirt with our #1 overall ranking.
#10: Ben Kudrna, RHP
Age: 19
B/T: R/R
Ht/Wt: 6′ 3″ 175′
Rule 5 Eligible: 2025
Acquired: 2021 MLB Draft, Round 2
2021 Stats: N/A
Here’s an excerpt from our writeup on Frank Mozzicato in our 15-11 article:
“To that, I would remind folks that the MLB Draft does not work like the NFL Draft. A player’s draft position means much less than their signing bonus from a pure talent/evaluation perspective. Mozzicato, despite being drafted 7th overall, signed for nearly $1.5M less than the player drafted right after him at #8 overall. His $3.55M signing bonus is just $550,000 more than the Royals signed Ben Kudrna for, and Kudrna was drafted 43rd overall. Kudrna’s $3M signing bonus at #43 was over $2M more expensive than the player drafted BEFORE him at #38 overall. See why this gets confusing?”
Anyway. The point really is that Kudrna shouldn’t be seen as an ordinary second round pick, because his signing bonus suggests he’s got the talent of some of the guys taken in the first round. And, to be honest, he was probably under scouted a bit on a national media level due to being in a less competitive area of Kansas City. Kudrna can absolutely chuck it on the mound. He’s been up to 97 on the bump in game action and we posted a video on Twitter, from his IG, of Kudrna pulling down 103 this offseason. The kid currently sits more like 93-95, but he’s got so much room to grow that I could legitimately see him siting in the upper-90’s flirting with 100 mph when he reaches the upper levels of the minors.
The ceiling on Kudrna is that of a legitimate ace in the big leagues. There is nothing this kid can’t achieve if everything breaks his way. That’s a laundry list of breaks that any pitcher needs to catch, including good health, good development, etc., but Kudrna has every tool a pitcher needs to become an ace. We’ll see if the Royals development staff really has turned over a new leaf, but early results are promising and I seriously could not be more excited to watch Kudrna, Mozzicato, Panzini, and Ben Hernandez next summer. Hopefully we’ll get to see these guys start 2022 with Low-A Columbia, but it will be an anxious couple of months until we find out for sure. There’s always TINSTAAPP to be cautious of, but I’m really optimistic about the future of these young arms.
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***Official 2022 Royals Season Repository Thread***
(https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=341631)