The Julio Two-Step
 

So I don't know much about things, but I do know three things.

1. The Chiefs have a hole at #2 WR.
2. The Falcons are looking to trade Julio Jones.
3. The Chiefs are, clearly, not interested in losing any 2022 picks. Which, duh, because that class is going to be amazing.

That being said, we know the Chiefs can do pick swaps, as a way to handing over value but keeping the same number of bullets in the chamber.

What's the priciest pick swap you're comfortable with doing for Julio, if any?

Are you willing to fork over a 2nd for a 4th + Julio?

A 3rd for a 5th + Julio?

Are you willing to fork over a 2nd for a 3rd, a 4th + Julio?

How creative are you willing to get.

If he didn't have the money he has, sure.

Otherwise, no.

I'd swap our third for their fifth if I'm taking on the contract for a player of his age and the fact that he struggles to stay on the field.

No, unless they pick up part of his salary in the deal and that isn't going to happen as they are in Cap hell... If we pick up Julio's contract it will prohibit us from getting a FA Edge rusher and/or resigning Breeland, both bigger needs than WR.

I think it's less about draft capital / trade compensation as much as it is about his contract. I went round and round in the lounge thread pushing for Julio, but the more I thought through the logistics of his contract, it seemed very out of character for us.

They're not taking on $15M for a guy with his injury history. It's just a dumb idea at this point.

Am I crazy for rather wanting to see what Cornell Powell can do at that position than to take on Julio and his contract?

Nope, not at all.

Julio + a bag of dicks for you mom and a 1st.

This is a stupid exercise. Bert isn’t trading for an aging, highly paid WR.

Mahomes to Julio would be majestic!

Do it Veach!!

They're not going to pay $15M guaranteed for an aging player with mounting injury problems.

You know who might? Gruden.

It just FEELS like a Gruden move.

ship out Hardman and a pick + conditional picks for Julio.


...granted....that's the easy version / no factoring in $$.

WTF? No way.

My vote is **** no!

yeah, after I re-read it.....LMAO


that's what I get for having 3 Tank 7's and being an armchair GM. lol

ROFL

He's got all the intangibles

The hole isn't worth filling for the price the Chiefs would have to pay. We had the #1 offense with a guy who was in and out of the lineup for three years, and really didn't do much when he was in the lineup.

The Chiefs will get equivalent production out of whoever lines up there in 2021.

I'd rather take Quintorris instead of this Julio fella

And for a lot less than $15M guaranteed.

He was an unmistakable part of our Super Bowl victory.

Without him, we struggled against the Bucs.

Every measurement of the Chiefs performance with a healthy Watkins vs. no Watkins/hobbled Watkins showed he gave us a huge boost.

So let's pay $15M for a guy that is hobbled all the time. Makes sense.

We've done it before.

https://theclemsoninsider.com/wp-con...-watkins-1.jpg

And it worked one time. The rest of the time he was here, he was unavailable.

Dumb.

Sherman's reaction after that play was priceless. He absolutely knew the game had officially flipped right there.

Please quit making threads

I am blown away how committed you are to such a terrible idea. Julio's contract with his age and recent nagging injuries make it a truly indefensible plan.

Stop ****ing this reeruned chicken.

**** no.

If you do a trade for a 1-year deal you do it with someone like the Colts for Zach Pascal. He's their #3, he can fill our #2, and he's been super productive.

Pascal isn’t happening.

TY is on the wrong side of 30 and Campbell has finished the last 2 seasons on IR.

I love the idea if we can make it work.

I'm not sure it's fair to compare Julio to Watkins, they're two totally different guys/players. Julio is a top 3-5 WR in the league averaging ~1500 yards per season in the last 6 years. Meanwhile, the hard truth is that Watkins never lived up to his hype in the league with only 1 yr @ 1k+. One plus for a Julio trade that I'll throw out there, he doesn't score a lot of TDs despite all that yardage. Means he won't get upset playing #2 or #3 in TDs REC next to Hill and Kelce.

Let's not overthink this, we have a need for a #2 WR and he's one of the best WRs in the league. I'll let Veach worry about Salary Cap etc...

Probably as likely as trading for a 32-year-old receiver with a 15m cap hit.

We're not overthinking it.

1. $15M guaranteed.
2. Has been sidelined by hamstring or foot/leg injuries EIGHT TIMES in his career.

There's no reason to bring him on. None. It's an absolutely stupid idea.

This. I'll add that Atlanta isn't going to be giving him away. I'll bet when he's traded it'll be a 2nd or 3rd and possibly another lower pick added on. There's no reason for us to give all that up and pay him 15M....where'd he be a 3rd option here.

It's dumb. This whole thing is dumb. I say he goes to GB so they can keep Rodgers happy.

Would be the greatest team of all-time on paper if we added Julio.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">🚨 HYPOTHETICAL TRADE 🚨<br><br>Imagine Julio Jones with the Chiefs 😳 <a href="https://t.co/hGvJHWnf8z">pic.twitter.com/hGvJHWnf8z</a></p>&mdash; PFF (@PFF) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1395408981003276288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 20, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

No.

I was more "hell no," but if you want to be soft about it ... :p

ROFL

No.

54 catches, 409 yards, 1 TD. Making league minimum
51 catches, 771 yards, 3 TDs. Making 15 million.

That's Larry Fitzgerald (who would likely sign for league minimum in order to get a ring) vs Julio and his projected 2021 salary. Those numbers are their numbers this past year.

Which one sounds better? I'll add Larry has been a iron man in his career and at the same age Julio is right now Larry put up: 109 catches, 1215 yards, 9TDs on the way to all pro year....with the corpse of Carson Palmer throwing him the ball.

Easy choice imo. If we want a 2nd WR...sign Larry Legend.

Excellent analysis. I like it.

This. I like this.

FWIW - Schrager doesn't think Julio/KC happens (in the comments)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="in" dir="ltr">Nah, Kansas City</p>&mdash; Arrowhead Live (@ArrowheadLive) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArrowheadLive/status/1395431170171678724?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 20, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Weep when it happens.</p>&mdash; Arrowhead Live (@ArrowheadLive) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArrowheadLive/status/1395431551207346180?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 20, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Re Julio. I Don’t think so</p>&mdash; Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) <a href="https://twitter.com/PSchrags/status/1395488437902495749?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 20, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I'm way too intrigued with Cornell Powell's potential to take a swing at Julio. He may end up being the next Marcus Kemp, who knows for certain, but man we have so much firepower at other positions around the X spot already that we just don't need Julio and his contract for one year and his injuries. And I say that as a HUGE Julio fan. Hell, I think mkp has convinced me to give Larry Fitz a shot if we're looking for a vet for that spot, lol.

No thank you. Too much compensation and the Chiefs do not want to lose 2022 picks. They're only interested in swaps right now.

I'd do it.

Larry Fitzgerald?

We've gone from a borderline stupid use of resources that at least has the potential to be brilliant for a couple of seasons to just being stupid to be stupid. He's toast.

I think Fitzgerald now is what we hope Powell is going to be albeit a lot slower.... I think he's worth a swing for his professionalism and durability alone

A bit slower? He's toast. He had 7.6 ypr last year. Robinson was more productive.

I don't think you read my post thoroughly. I'd be more interested in Fitz' drop rate than his ypr. He wasn't taking the top off of any defenses 5 years ago. 8 yards sure sounds a hell of a lot better than 0 due to the drops though.

I don't know what the financials are but if he's cheap I'd absolutely be on board with bringing him on the redemption tour.

Why care about drops? Unless drop rates are unreasonably high where they affect Catch/Target significantly, Catch/Target is a more useful stat. Like a drop, if a target isn't caught then it was affected by a defender or an overthrow by the QB whereby both can be/are affected by the receiver's ability to get/be open. Looking at all 3 contributing factors as a whole, then I'm fine with D Rob.

DRob's catch/target was 76.3% last year while Fitz's was 75.0%. In both cases, there was good production in regard to catch rate. The mid-70s, actually, is top-notch.

Compare them to the top 5 most productive receivers in the NFL in 2020...
Diggs - 76.5%, Hopkins - 71.9%, Adams - 77.2%, A. Robinson - 67.5%, Lockett - 75.8%


Given that both receivers are getting near similar YAC, Robinson had 165 on 45 receptions (3.67 yac ave)and Fitz had 178 on 54 receptions (3.30 yac ave), then the extra 3 yards per reception Robinson is getting comes primarily from his route.

You look at Fitz, that means on average he got the ball within the first 4.1 yards. That's not good. You question, statistically, his ability to win beyond the release. You see with your eyes he really can't anymore.

Changed my mind.. Im in on Julio...Teams need to respect our #2 receiver

Let's pay $15M for "respect".

:shake:

hopefully we could get that number down somehow

It's guaranteed. The Falcons might be able to pick up some of that but we're taking the bulk of the hit.

Re-doing his deal moves the guaranteed money, making him much more difficult to afford in the future, which isn't wise considering his age and injury history.

I think people need to realize that this move just doesn't make sense.

Money isn't the issue. I kind of outlined a "scenario" to make it happen in the Lounge thread. The issue is going to be what the Falcons want. If it's the reported 1st or even a 2nd, I'd be out. No way I'd give up that kind of capital for a 32-year-old player. A 3rd is max.

It is an issue unless you start getting really creative with the cap (like the scenario you mentioned, which still isn't all that realistic).

You're more than likely having to cut salary to fit him in PLUS trading high draft picks.

It's just too much.

I can't believe people think Sammy Watkins was an instrumental part of this offense.

LMAO

Or that his absence against the Bucs meant shit. LMAO

Even when he was healthy he was giving us journeyman's production.

We don't need to overpay for a third target. Foolishness.

Where to sign up!? I'd happily give a 3rd + Player for Julio.

Who do you want? Mecole, D Rob, LDT?

Giving up Mecole on a rookie contract would be dumb.

They don't want our 2nd and 3rd-string trash.

LDT would actually make some sense for them to fit in for a year at LG while they develop Jalen Mayfield.

The only realistic scenario is moving Frank Clark money. The Chiefs aren't cutting Hitchens this year. An HB extension won't likely get them there either. If they want Julio, it's a combo of moving some of his salary to bonus and Clark's. How much may depend on a few other potential factors like an HB extension shaving a few off the top but that's about it.

I'd take Julio for a couple of "likely" good years yet if the price is no more than a 3rd. A 3rd is less than flipping a coin on getting a player that does anything much. If we're talking a 1st or 2nd, save the picks and draft a WR early next year.

That said, the Falcons reportedly want a 1st. If that's the case, they can go blow smoke up their own asses.

Pretty sure LDT has a no trade clause.

Exactly.

It's just not in the cards. We don't have the scratch to make it happen.

You're more than likely correct on that one. I don't recall for sure but it seems like I remember something like that now that you mention it. May have came into play with the void year.

The Chiefs' ability to make this happen all pins on the Mathieu extension.

If they can work a 3- or 4-year extension with him, the cap hit for 2021 likely drops by $10M or so, which gives you enough room to make a Jones trade possible.

Cut or trade Wylie and Pringle, and you can add a few M more of wiggle room.

IF they can get the extension done on terms that they like and that work for them, and the trade compensation is no more than a third-round pick, I think it works for the Chiefs.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The current thinking in league circles is that the Falcons eventually will trade Julio Jones to the Titans for a second-round pick. <a href="https://t.co/6SiXGaTI9p">https://t.co/6SiXGaTI9p</a></p>&mdash; ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) <a href="https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/1399014948391501828?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 30, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

How do you "emerge to be a perceived favorite"?

Sounds like some typical PFF made-up shit.

I doubt the Falcons get more than a low 2nd rounder.

He wants out and they need to dump his cap number...

Falcons leak the deal, hoping another team will beat it. Which they didn’t.

It’s not rocket science, Halfwit.

I’m really glad that we didn’t trade picks for this guy as well as paying him that much money. He’s heading towards the end of the road with maybe a year, maybe 2, of high end play.

I would love for this team to accumulate more draft picks bc I trust them fully at this point to hit on day 3 players. When you’re drafting Tyreek Hill’s, Kareem Hunt’s, Travis Kelce’s, Juan Thornhill’s, L’Jarius Sneed’s, Noah Gray’s and Trey Smith’s with picks outside the top 50, you can really build your depth.

Hopefully Bieniemy gets hired and we can pull another draft pick from a trade.

Great post until the end there. Bienemy is never going to be a head coach. It's not going to happen.

We know some of the skeletons in the closet (which are bad), but there's got to be something worse. He's interviewed with 1/3rd of the league at this point. For them to all pass on an energetic, charismatic, minority coach who is loved by his players means that the unknown skeletons have to be pretty effin bad.

The known incidents from his time at CU are enough to make a team think twice... But I think someone would be willing to gamble on him if that was it.

Well, it came out this past cycle that he's a terrible interview, not very well organized, and doesn't really have a "vision" or plan.

I think it's apparent that he's one of those guys that is a leader but not a manager.