I think he goes 14-18.

I don't want him as a RB. I don't like him enough in that capacity. He's kind of an outside runner only and that's pretty limited in the NFL. You have to be able to run between the tackles and bounce it when it's there.

But as a potential slot WR, that's where I like Goodson. I'd love to see Reid convert him like he did Hill. He's dangerous as hell when he's out in space.

This is tough too Crow. I wish there was a way we could get Johnson, Wyatt, Pickens, and Williams from your other thread without spending too much capital from next year, but we may have too to pull that off. This one saves on next years picks, but doesn't appeal to me quite as much.

Wyatt just looks so much more explosive than Jones at DT. And Williams looks like the perfect compliment to Johnson at the DE spot. If we only came out with those 4 players out of the first two days of the draft, I think I would be a happy camper.

I think that will depend on how guys fall. Teams spent time with Wyatt not just because he's good but he had some off-the-field stuff to look into and gauge his character. I mean, an altercation with a woman that led to charges that were dropped for family violence, criminal trespass, and damage to property is kind of serious and it was in 2020. Here's a link to a report on the story: https://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...eanor-charges/

Depending on how teams view that could be the difference between him flirting with the top 15 and going near the end of the 1st, or later. He didn't strike or commit any crime directly against the woman but trying to kick her door in may not sit with some teams. With the Chiefs though, Andy gives everyone a chance and he's a legit talent. Absolutely the best DT in the class.

Williams is a guy where I don't really know where he's going to end up. His charge wasn't overly serious and also dropped but it was an offense directly against a woman. Now, based on that type of charge he likely grabbed her ass, her snatch, or some titty and she didn't want that happening. I don't know what it was for sure and it really doesn't matter. The issue is more about it is one step away from raping someone and you don't want that to be a thing. Like Wyatt, I think Williams definitely learned from it, and now that he has a son whom he wants to be a role model is pretty huge. I don't know the dynamics of his relationship with the mother though.

As for football itself with Williams, he's incredibly gifted athletically and he can be very talented on the field. The problem is he takes plays, and series, off. He's not the high motor type you like to see. I think that is the reason his draft grade is suffering and not as much with the off-the-field. He has a 1st round pedigree with 3rd round habits. So, I don't know how teams are going to view him. It seems there is not a consensus on him from the pundits. Some have him ranked in the 40's, some have him in the 90's. There's way too much volatility in his stock for me to say, yeah that looks like a reasonable spot to mock him. If I had to guess, he'll be there at 62 but not there at 94.

So what's all this mean to me? I think you're not getting all 4 guys so you have to pick. I think you'd have to get up to 21 for Wyatt or the Packers are grabbing him at 22. A trade to 21 likely means losing 62 as part of the deal. You can take Pickens at 30 or wait and see if he's there at 50. I don't know if he's there at 50. I have us moving up to 47 for him and that may not get it done. His stock is a little volatile too. Might have to get in front of Chicago at 39. Hell, any team picking in the top 12 picks of the 2nd could take him depending on what many of them do in the 1st.

Honestly, if KC ran a 3-4 right now I think their draft positioning is set up so well to get guys to fit that defensive scheme. I'd probably move up for Wyatt at 21, grab Ebiketie at 30, and then grab Jackson at 50. Figure out WR later. And hell, maybe they do that anyhow and run a slightly undersized 4-3 group or pick Mafe at 30. Wyatt, Mafe, and Jackson wouldn't be a bad haul without breaking the draft pick bank. You're just grabbing WRs in the 3rd and 4th at that point.

Edit: Sorry for the book!!! Just trying to get alot of thoughts out there.

I enjoyed the "book" Crow! I absolutely love reading your takes regarding the draft every year, and especially this year considering how important this draft is for our future.

I've actually heard (or read) something about a potential move towards a 3-4 next year a couple of times. Not here either. I kind of dismissed it as just some pundit talking. Be interesting to see if that has any legs come draft day.

Keep your stuff coming! It's much appreciated!

Moved Pickens up to 30 and changed the move in the 2nd to be for Perrion Winfrey.

I just don't think Pickens will be there and I have to think KC is highly intrigued by this cat.

As for Winfrey, it's a 2-part decision. One, I don't think Travis Jones slides that far. Secondly, Winfrey is my top pass-rusher projection at DT and while I don't agree with Meck about the value of a high-quality NT early, I do agree with him that targeting a pass-rusher at the position should be a high priority. I like Winfrey's ability to move inside/out and be a chess piece until the Chiefs decide to move on from Chris Jones, which may be as early as next offseason.

I like Pickens a lot.

I also like Winfrey a lot.

I don't know that I like moving all the way up for Johnson.

I've been trying to fit Pickens into my mocks as well.

So much talent around 30-50, and in the 2nd round in general, that it's hard to navigate.

If he tried and failed to kick a door in, maybe he doesn't have the power/burst we need

**** it, going balls deep in this mock too. I knew releasing this early was a bad idea and I'd change my mind. So here's a bit on why I did it...

I just really think you gotta put your chips down and go get a truly elite talent when you have the ammunition to do it while still retaining a few more darts in the top 100. Sitting idle at 29/30 is noble and could yield a couple of outstanding talents but I just feel like history has shown it is unlikely.

Could this be a draft where you get Eric Stokes and Greg Rousseau? Sure. Is it likely? Not so sure about that. Here's a brief history of the 29th and 30th picks:

2020: OT Isaiah Wilson, CB Noah Igbinoghene
2019: DE L.J. Collier, CB Deandre Baker
2018: DT Taven Bryan, CB Mike Hughes
2017: TE David Njoku, DE T.J. Watt
2016: DT Robert Nkemdiche, DT Vernon Butler
2015: WR Phillip Dorsett, FS/CB Damarious Randall
2014: DT Dominique Easley, FS/CB Jimmie Ward
2013: WR Cordarelle Patterson, LB Alec Ogletree
2012: SS Harrison Smith, WR A.J. Jenkins

If that list doesn't scare you a little bit, then I don't know what does. Of those 18 players, I'd call 5 good or better and that's Watt, Dorsett, Ward (when healthy), Ogletree, and Smith. Of the other 13, a solid 10 were pretty much shit or very subpar for 1st rounders.

I want Veach to push his chips in and go get a guy that's projected to be elite and I'm betting one of Hutchinson, Thibodeaux, or Walker is there at 6. Go get one of them. Could they go 1-2-3? Sure, it's not out of the realm of possibility. Then maybe you don't get so aggressive but I'd go back to my theory on getting a guy at the 11-13 range in Johnson if he's there.

If you can't get those guys, well then by all means sit tight and see what happens. I'll pound the table hard for Ebiketie at that point.

As for the rest, I'm sticking to my guns with Winfrey at 50. I'm enamored with his upside at both DE and DT. No harm in trying him at DE but don't **** him up like Speaks and leave him out there if it's not looking like it'll work. He can be a force inside, no doubt in my mind.

62 got tricky for me. I really want KC to grab a WR and I'm personally torn between Pierce, Watson (yes I think he's there at 62), and Metchie. Pierce, to me, just offers what the Chiefs seem to be going towards and that's big guys that can beat zone coverage. This was my thought earlier in the offseason, that Reid would navigate towards an offense that could beat zone as teams deploy more of it. I feel like Pierce is a bit of a reach at 62 but I also don't think he's there late in the 3rd either. He's big, he's fast, and he's smart. He can learn routes. I like the kid enough to take that shot. Metchie, he's a guy I think can be a really good slot player in the NFL but I'm not so sure about him outside. Watson is raw but I like his upside. I just don't think he produced enough against subpar competition as an older prospect.

In changing my mock at the top, retaining pick 135 was big for me. I wanted so badly to have Pierre Strong in it but I couldn't take him over Braxton Jones in my prior rendition. I'm putting him in because he's a guy I desperately want KC to end up with (which probably means he ends up a Bronco or Raider...).

I finished this off by changing my sleeper picks in the 7th up. I'm going back to Novil that I had early on at DT. He's going to be a nice player I think as a rotational NT.

I couldn't keep a near 26-year-old in D'Anthony Bell in my projection. He's a long shot to make a team and an even longer shot to get drafted at that age. I wouldn't be averse as a UDFA though. Anyhow, Nazeeh Johnson... I like this kid and I like his coverage. He's tenacious and he gets his hands on the ball a lot. He's an ankle-biter of a tackler but maybe he can grow there as he plays more at safety. You talk about guys that always end up around the football, he's one of those guys.

I was torn though, as I like some upside with a couple of other guys but especially Quandre Mosely out of Kentucky. He's a 6'1" guy at CB that ran a 4.38 and plays good press coverage. I also like Josh Thompson out of Texas as a CB convert to FS. He's fast and lays the hammer but I just don't think he sticks enough in coverage.

I'm thinking I wouldn't chase a particular WR in this draft. I'm attacking the DL and defensive backs. I think we have enough guns in the arsenal to make a value pick at WR and take a big swing next year

I love the move up for Thibs, as I think he'll be there at 6 and Carolina is our best target if we want to move into the top 10. He's throwing ppl off with his off field interests, but w/e Andy won't care about that. The kid can play and unlike sooo many DEs, he actually can play the run too.

Great size and he's tough. He got injured this year and could've sat the season out but he played hurt and still put up numbers.

Hope Veach pulls the trigger. Like Bosschief said both 1sts and next year's 3rd should get it down. Worth it for a potential Khalil Mack. Still can grab a WR (Pickens??) at 50 and get some DBs and LBs with the rest of our picks.

I like Winfrey a lot more at 50 than Tariq Woolen. Nice mock!

Woolen is just the guy I think they'll draft, not the one I want them to draft. Woolen is a big shot on traits, that's about it at this point. He's got a good deal of learning to do.

I am sure that you realize that the pick value does not line up according to several charts for that move to the top.