The Chiefs got lucky to win Super Bowls
 

Get out your pitchforks boys, you ain't gonna like this. It's actually good arguments. We probably got lucky last year, unlucky in the losses to Brady because that mother****er is the luckiest person alive.

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I hope we get lucky 4 more times

Not even going to watch this clickbait. I watched the actual games. The Chiefs won because of undisputed greatness.

Hi

Exactly. Considering we've had to dominate the AFC almost every year to get those opportunities, it's not luck.

And the mafia.
And Taylor Swift.
And cute puppies.

Every team that wins a Super Bowl has luck...I hate even bringing it up.

OP just wants some attention.

Maybe we were the best and were also fortunate. Handing Mahomes the ball at the end of the game wasn't luck, though but we still needed some good fortune and we got it.

No I just found the video fascinating. Sports aren't supreme destiny. It's also possible if we were as lucky as TOM BRADY we would have five super bowls and not three. Or if we were extremely unlucky maybe only 1.

I'll take this kind of luck any day.

Congratulations on discovering that there is some luck involved in winning championships.

Sure they did - a little. I mean the 49ers were lucky to even BE there, but let's not quibble...

Greenlaw's injury saved our asses. And Grapes missed an easy throw in the first SB that could've changed everything.

But man, that Eagles SB was two teams playing at an extremely high level. I'm just not sure I can find any 'luck' in there at all.

Moreover, there's not been a team in NFL history that didn't need a good break here or there to win a championship. That's how damn hard these things are to win. Maybe some of those early Cowboys teams that were molly-whopping the Bills didn't need any luck. But even then, they had some tight squeezes to get there in the playoffs.

It's just a truism, really.

And in the end, you can distinguish luck from skill by it's duration. 3 SB titles in 5 years ain't luck. Unless you call the Bengals being dumb enough to take John Ross when they needed a QB and the Bills being dumb enough to trade us pick 10 when they ALSO needed on 'luck'.

In which case - sure. Fine. Whatever. The Cowboys were lucky the Vikings are stupid. The Patriots are lucky they got a GOAT QB in the 5th round (who didn't need much salary cap space because his wife was a billionaire). The 49ers are lucky we took Steve Fuller instead of Joe Montana.

So in short - who really gives a ****?

Luck is a part of life but you got to take advantage of it. Most teams and people don't, Chiefs do.

I've always believed this but fans tend to think there is almost no luck in sports.

In a related note, I still haven't won the Powerball or mega millions

Going to six AFCCG's and winning three SB's isn't just luck.

Superfarce 50 is the definition of that

Chiefs are a **** hair from playing in 6 straight SBs that ain't luck

BWillie is lucky to make a 3' putt.

Of course not. The Chiefs have been the best team in the NFL for a while but they've also been lucky. This level of dominance is what happens when the best team is also lucky. A dynasty occurs.

luck equals opportunity plus preparation

The Faketriots entire dynasty was based on luck… and cheating.

I had a nice 77 with 39 putts the other day. You would have laughed at me alot.

Luck also a big factor in golf. There are days I've hit the ball awful and shot par. Other days I've shot 83 and played great. Ball getting a fried egg lie in a bunker. Ending up in horrible lies around the green. Being blocked in by a tree when it's the only one there. Wind gust when the ball is already in the air.

Life is full of lucky breaks.

Luck equals luck.

There is certainly "luck" in sports. There is "luck" in almost everything in life that has variation. When people equate luck to not being worthy of the outcome, that it turns into an argument.

There's a shitload of luck in sports.

Ultimately that's what drives me nuts about the Cardinals and their "We want to be relevant in September" approach. Because if you have ANY bad luck at all when you're targeting 88 wins, then you're going to win 83 and miss the playoffs.

You've gotta build in a luck buffer. Building for 84 wins and lucking your way into 4 more to get to 88 and the playoffs may work for a year, but you're gonna fall back again the next season. And building for 88 wins is going to net you 82 as often as it does a playoff appearance.

Luck is absolutely a part of the game. But ultimately over any reasonable sample size it's likely to even out. Most teams will get about the same amount of good luck and bad luck. Well led teams will fight through the bad. Poor led teams blame it for being poorly run.

4 SB appearances and 3 wins in 5 years is a plenty long sample size. Easily long enough to demonstrate that it ain't luck that led to that.

A **** hair probably should overtake the metric system in measurement.

Exactly.

You have to buy a ticket in order to win the lottery. We’re the only team to buy tickets every year.

Some of those will be lucky tickets. Some will be unlucky. The skill is in always putting your team in a position to strike. And that part isn’t luck.

Right here, my friends.

Truth be told, if Mahomes had held that ball a half second longer in the first Super Bowl, he can't complete Wasp.

If Mahomes isn't hit late in the AFCCG in 2023, the Chiefs aren't able to move up for a gimme FG and then who knows what happens.

If the Bills convert a FG last year, the Chiefs have to face them in OT and who knows what happens.

All three years, the Chiefs advance by the slimmest of margins, but that's almost certainly true for a hundred different teams.

It's also true that Andrew Luck doesn't have the ball bounce right back into his hands, or that Mariota catches his own pass, Dee Ford is offsides, or that Lin Elliott doesn't miss a hundred kicks, Eric Fisher misses the Super Bowl in 2021. And on and on it goes.

It's the nature of the sport. You cannot win without luck on your side.

In each of those games, the Chiefs could have won by more. The Eagles Super Bowl alone, I still think Sneed forced that fumble and that Nick Bolton should have been the real MVP with two touchdowns.

But, hey. That's the sport. And that's why it's a wild ride.

Nah they were good. You don't accomplish what they did just based on what you claim especially when you consider they lost a key piece in Hernandez due to his incarceration.

Regardless, hopefully they Chiefs can match their accomplishments in time wout all the controversies.

Tuck rule play?

Almost all of their Super Bowl wins were by one score/close games?

The bullshit Chris Jones roughing the passer call and the Dee Ford offsides call that got them to their final Super Bowl?

All luck.

I refer to it as "good fortune"...where preparation meets opportunity, then has beers with Patrick Mahomes

While there is certainly some luck involved whenever any team wins multiple championships, I'm pretty sure having a HOF Head Coach, QB, TE and DT helps slightly. I mean, just somewhat, but it probably was mostly luck.

God, I hate everyone.

is it luck to win at poker?

And, more specifically, we seem to be great at striking when we see an opening. How many times has there been a key turnover, and we immediately score in the next couple of plays? That kind of stuff turns games.

That's the way the ball bounces... is a saying for a reason. Though, most teams attitudes and preparedness create much of the "luck"...

It's a game of inches. This is nothing new.

It also goes both ways. They easily could have more if it wasn't for a few handful plays.

For instance, if you come in first place in an elimination tournament that started with 100 players, that usually takes skill and luck.

Just coming out ahead most nights, night after night in ten person cash game, skill.

A hand? Yeah.

A tournament? Nah - when I used to play a lot I knew when I was playing well and when I was irritated or chasing or just not focused and playing poorly.

If you're getting cold-decked it's not 'luck' to play in such a way that allows you to ride out your cold spell and then take advantage of it when you start getting better cards. Or to know when to lean on guys when THEY'RE clearly chasing.

There's plenty of skill involved in poker.

Over a course of one day, one tournament, or one cash session? Yes. That's the #1 reason you win or lose.

I can acquit some of what you said to football as well

My takeaway with his findings of our good fortune last year is we can't just sit on our hands and assume we will win again with the same team. Our defense is going to be there. But we need to heavily invest into the offense and especially at WR, LT and find another TE.

They already signed Hollywood and have set themsevles up to draft offense heavily after bringing back everybody but Sneed on D.

The plan was never to run it back with the same offense.

I would say there is much more luck involved in poker than you even are giving credit for. In one tournament, I'd rather be one of the worst players in the field and be one of the luckiest and it isn't even close. You can be absolutely awful and win a poker tournament.

When I play online in cash games I win only 53 or 54% of the time in a given cash session. In live cash where the games are much much easier I win about 62% of the time. In one day, one game, luck is the biggest factor of my success.

Over an entire year luck STILL a factor, just not the biggest factor. And in football you are only playing 17 + playoff games so there is that much more of a luck factor than some other sports or games.

Yep. I like what we are doing.

I barely count online poker.

There's too many lunatics in those rooms that throw 'calculated decisionmaking' out the window.

When you have 2 or 3 guys throwing hand grenades out there, it changes things quite a bit. So yeah, in online I'd say luck plays a greater role.

The Chiefs are lucky that the Bills were dumb enough to hand the GOAT to us.

Defense is at least 3/4 of what it was last year...Hell yeah lets get some more O in the draft

I mean, no one prob thought Pat would be the goat when we drafted him...some luck there for sure

lol what

Online is full of multitabling pros who are making very good calculating decisions. Much less fish as well.

Live is full of plumbers, ditch diggers, wealth managers, drunk guys who have no sound strategy. Luck plays a big factor in both but if your winrate per table live is 10-15x higher than an online game then your variance will be lower and in turn the probability of you winning a given session increases.

If my winrate at a live 5/10 game was the same as an online 5/10 game where I could also play 8 tables, I could probably be a billionaire by the time I died.

Luck plays a big factor in single elimination sports, but it’s hard to quantify and doesn’t lead to good talking points

I'd say an overwhelming percentage (>90%) of fans realize there is some luck involved in winning/losing. Honestly I've never seen anyone argue against it (IRL or on the Internet) and I read Reddit quite a bit. That place is filled with brain dead idiots.

What fans are you talking about?

Is it luck that the Ravens thought that Lamar could out-QB Mahomes in the playoffs?

Not really, no. Jackson is always terrible in the playoffs. When he runs or when he doesn't.

Walk into a sports bar when any game is on.

Step 2. Look around.

Luck will always be a factor for any Championship team.

I wouldn't call it a big factor, because if it was then Patrick Mahomes wouldn't be 15-3 in those single elimination games. It definitely is a factor, but it has nothing on the inevitability of Patrick Mahomes.

What am I looking for?

Let me tell you about luck. Throwing a pick that literally lost the game and Dee Ford gets a flag the same play. Throwing a pick in the SB and getting a holding ball across the field to keep the ball. Nothing that lucky has happened to us.

Mahomes makes his own luck.

Nobody ever talks about how the other teams had a lot of luck go there way during the games as well. Why? Because ultimately there are a lot of lucky bounces in every game. The team that can take advantage of the luck they get are the better teams.

Namely the Chiefs.

It's luck that the Ravens were dumb enough to think that was possible, but Lamar choking in the playoffs was to be expected. No luck needed.

anyone will complain to overcome greatness

Denial is not just a river in Egypt

They can suck the luck out of my thick dick.

While I enjoyed the video I'd suggest that the calculations/numbers are off.

How can he use total possessions but base everything else (missed kicks, defense dropped INT, WR dropped pass and such) on snaps?

In the video it talks about how many "possessions" each team gets a game. The guy said each team has about 11-12 possessions a game so he rounded it to a total of 25 possessions a game. I'd argue that with football you should use SNAPS not possessions. An average NFL game has a total of about 126 total snaps which is WAY more than the 25 number he talks about.

Put 126 into the calculations instead of 25 and all of those graphs and charts seem like every team has basically the same amount of luck or Bad luck.

I've seen WAY more wildcards in online games.

And that's not to say that all of them are - there are absolutely pros online. But it only takes 1 or 2 guys at a table to screw up any sort of dynamic (I've been in rooms where a pro gets pissed and leaves because no amount of 'calculating' will save you when you have a lunatic in there).

I've always found live games to give 'truer' outcomes because you're less likely to have that 1 or 2 people at the table who are playing with their hair on fire. And there are still plenty of those even at 5/10 games.

I never played much beyond the 5/10 games. I suspect at 10/25 you've weeded out most of those really nutty players. Certainly anything beyond that you will have. But it's been my experience that there are still a TON of erratic players all the way up to 5/10 games.

Yep. Living here in the Bay Area during the 1980s I watched most of the niners games during their dynasty. I couldn't believe how often every "tipped" pass on either side of the ball would magically always fall into niners hands. Every fumble seemed to kick up high as a niners player running full speed didnt even have to dive to the ground to recover it. And it always seemed they got the crucial call at the crucial time.

Good teams draw good luck......and create their own good luck

[QUOTE=BWillie;17484815]Get out your pitchforks boys, you ain't gonna like this. It's actually good arguments. We probably got lucky last year, unlucky in the losses to Brady because that mother****er is the luckiest person alive.



Luck is opportunity meets Mahomes

We won SB58 by just about the absolute slimmest of margins. I won't even begin to think or say it was luck that got us the win, but boy oh boy, if we don't make every yard and every play we did in all phases of the game, we lose that Super Bowl. And that's what makes it probably one of the best championship games we've seen in a LONG time. The game was THAT close.

Total luck that the blocker on the 9ers punt return had the awareness of a tent spike and let the football hit his foot. Also total luck that their returner had the wise idea to pick the ball up instead of falling on it.

I guess the Chiefs are lucky that the 49ers players are dumber and worse at football.

We won last year's Super Bowl having gone through objectively the toughest gauntlet of any Super Bowl winning team in the modern era:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A reminder: the Chiefs faced the hardest postseason road to a title ever, based on regular-season DVOA of their opponents. <a href="https://t.co/km0BfE1Of8">pic.twitter.com/km0BfE1Of8</a></p>&mdash; Aaron Schatz �� (@ASchatzNFL) <a href="https://twitter.com/ASchatzNFL/status/1756896776211308982?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Nananananaa - Fingers in ears and eyes, not watching that shite. We are the best!

I like cute puppies!

And the Chiefs!!!

I wanted this video to be compelling, but it wasn't. They repeatedly cite missed field goals and made field goals as some of their main examples of "luck". If that's the case I can see why the Chiefs, with an all-time great kicker, are considered lucky. They also act like a fumble recovery is random and has no correlation to the awareness/reaction time of the players. And dropping passes and INTs? That's also all luck.

I believe there is plenty of luck in sports. I do agree that the limited number of posessions in football mean that one funny bounce of the ball can be massive. Whereas in basketball you get way more possessions and opportunities to overcome. That was probably their best point.

Thanks luck!!!

Interesting concept and not a bad video... but, overall seems half-baked (and he even said so at the end, since he's not tracking terrible officiating calls and coin flips, etc.).

I think at one point he even excused the block EP in the SB as luck even after saying he didn't count blocked kicks.

He talks a good game, but seems like he's currently counting things that aren't 100% lucky (maybe a defense is good at recovering fumbles because they're always around the ball) while not counting things that are pure luck (how could you not count coin flips).

This is Luck Alpha, would be interested in knowing what it looks like when it's a finished project.

And games. NBA playoff series has minimum 4 games, max 7 games, and NFL playoff series has only 1 game. Thats gonna drive variance down quite a bit.

Didn't watch the video, didn't feel the need to.


It goes without saying that single elimination games are affected the most by 'luck.' It's the reason MLB/NBA/NHL do best-of-7 series. It's why pro pool tournaments are always race-to-13 or more. Playing more games reduces the luck factor.

However, it's tough to say it was luck when a team wins 3 out of four SBs in a relatively short period like 5 years. Sure, there's going to be some luck involved in any game, but luck isn't usually consistent for one team over another either.

Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce Chris Jones, Spags, Sneed, McDuffie, Bolton, Gay….. and the rest!

Luck? lmao

Lucky we had these guys.

This bullshit started with labeling DBs dropping interceptions and WRs dropping passes as being defined as luck. Your DBs or WRs ability to catch a ball isn't luck, it's a lack of skill or concentration.

Is this thing worth watching beyond those two examples?

The variation evens out in the end. What’s left over time is skill/talent.