Trade up options
 

Credit to Pest in the lounge.


Would you give up next years 1 and 29 to get up high enough to take Johnson?

If they're going to trade up, they need to go get a guy that can start and have an impact right from the start.

Trading up for Johnson is one of the few trades I could stomach.

I'd rather give up 29 and 50. Roughly the same value. But yeah.

I think if you give up 50....then you almost need to trade out of 30 to pick up another pick to make up for it.

We've gone so many years without a 1st round pick, that giving up another one for Johnson doesn't hurt as much.

Probably would be my plan anyway.

The Texans are an intriguing partner here.

Here's a fun concept:

Texans get:

29, 30, and 62

Chiefs get:
13, 37

That works out pretty well in value. You're giving up a 2nd, but still have 2 of them and still get 3 picks in the top 50 of this draft.

I'm not sure 13 is high enough to be assured of Johnson, though.

13 would get you into the cream of this draft, even if it's not Johnson, and getting 37 back would be good value.

I actually like this idea.

Not sure Houston would do that. They'd be giving up a 3rd round picks worth of value.

Would you like it if 13 ends up being Karlaftis? I just ran that on TDN and ended up with Karlaftis at 13 and Brisker at 37. Could have gone Cameron Thomas at 37, too... though he's an awkward pairing with Karlaftis since they're similar players.

Not sexy. But pretty good returns.

A trade like that would probably look more like:

Houston gets #29, #30 and #62

Kansas City gets #13 and #68

Which chart are you basing it on?

And yeah, looking at drafttek, it looks like it need to include either 50 instead of 62 or include 62 and another pick. That runs off the Johnson chart.

On the Johnson Chart, this is the Chiefs overpaying by pick 89.5.

The Rich Hill model has the value at:

Chiefs giving up 483. Houston giving up (with #37) 498.

I was using the Johnson model for my earlier post.

Yeah. I'd be okay with that.

I'll be honest - about the only thing I'm against at this point is trading up for Williams or Ojabo.

It's one thing to take a guy with an injury. It's another thing altogether to trade up for that...

I think if you're trading up you're gonna shoot for a potential home run type dude. I don't think I'd do it for Karlaftis.

Johnson maybe.

I'm trading up to the 13-15 range for Johnson, Karlaftis would probably be the 15-20 range if he's there.

Johnson can set the edge in run defense AND has pass rush skills. I think he's a 10-12 sack a season guy.

Exactly.

So on hill, KC could do 29,30, 62, and 135 for 13 and 37. I would buy that.

I could be wrong but

30, 62 and a 2023 1st should net a 2022 top-15, '22 4th or 5th, and some combo of 2023 3rd, 4th or 5th.

That'd put the Chiefs in position to absolutely murder this draft IMO.

I posted this one about a week ago. Pretty much the same one being discussed.

#29 - 640 points
#30 - 620 points
#50 - 400 points
#62 - 286 points (1946 total points)


To Houston for

#13 - 1150 points
#37 - 540 points
#68 - 250 points (1940 total points)


Net result:
Only one 1st, but at the top portion of the 1st.
Only one 2nd, but at the top of the 2nd.
Three 3rds. One early, two at the end.
Still have our two 4ths.
Still have our four 7ths.

Incorporating the lounge stuff here, but what about:

Washington Receives
#29 (= 640 pts)
#30 (= 620 pts)
#103 (= 88 pts)
Mecole Hardman


Kansas City Receives
#11 (=1250 pts)
Terry McLaurin


We would have an alpha WR, plus:
@11 - we could potentially get an Edge with Thibodeaux, Walker or Johnson OR the top WR OR top DB OR top DT
@50 - we could still get a decent player at one of the positions from above
@62 - we could get a decent player at the remaining positions from the above

Man I do not want to trade up but DAMN! This guy is awesome!

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I could live with that all day and twice on Sunday!

I edited a bit to make it more fair and show values lol

Pretty darn decent. Would be tempting.

Yeah I mean, we got Nick Bolton last year at #58 and Creed Humphrey at #63, so there's no reason Veach couldn't ball out with #50 & #62 + McLaurin + #11. We would have to pay McLaurin though, which is something we were close to doing with Tyreek. If we lock him up before he's paired with Mahomes this year and blows it out, we might be getting him at a discount.

I dunno if Washington would pull that trigger though, but 3 top 100's and Mecole is a decent haul.

Every Mock I see now has Johnson as a top 10 player. Don’t think we’re moving that high

In this scenario, at 11, you would possibly have these players on the board...

Chris Olave
Derek Stingley, Jr.
Charles Cross
Jermaine Johnson II
Trent McDuffie
Jameson Williams
Devin Llloyd
Jordan Davis
Nakobe Dean
Jahan Dotson
Treylon Burks
George Karlafis
Andrew Booth Jr.
Devonte Wyatt

Who would you take? Jermaine Johnson II for me.

Among those names, yeah, Johnson is at the top for me as well.

I'm not sure that's enough to get #11 AND Terry tbh, but I'm game if it is.

I like the idea of trading up with #29, and down with #30 to recoup the lost picks:


#29 (1st)
#103 (3rd)
#135 (4th)
=
#19 (1st) from the Eagles

&

#30 (1st)
=
#58 (2nd)
#82 (3rd)
#151 (5th) from ATL

I'm down for trading up, but doing so for a non-QB, you BETTER hit because that's a lot of capital. The one trade that always sticks in my mind is the Saints for Davenport, which was ****ing wild.

On the other hand, I also remember the Falcons trading a haul for Julio Jones, and I thought it was worth it at the time. He just screamed alpha dominance to me.

In this draft? For the types of guys we're talking about? No, I wouldn't wanna ship two 1s tbh. I'm 100% down with a 2nd and some change to move up whatever it takes for the better WR/DE, rather than just hoping and praying the 5th-ranked guy falls or whatever.

The price is likely steep if you're talking DE. Just about everyone on the planet assumes the top 4 DEs are gone at 15. To get to 14 would take 29, 50, and a future 5th at minimum. I surely like Jermaine Johnson more than George Karlaftis but giving up 50 is going to be a tough sell around here.

I'm not giving shit up for any WRs. There's not a transcendent talent worth dumping that kind of capital for.

Exactly.

Jermaine Johnson is impressive. And a ten yard split of 1.55. Wow.

Didn't Calvin Johnson Retire ?

Guess what guys. The QB makes the receiver. The receiver does not make the QB. Veach is signing everybody to 1 year deals because he is building through the draft . You can expect Veach to make his pick at 29 and trade 30 for more picks.

I am thinking a QB needy team like Detroit will trade back into the 1st to get a 5th year on a QB like Howell.

No.

Pests plan sucks.

No ****ing way KC trades their 2023 1st when hosting the draft..

Am I missing something with Johnson? He looks okay, but nothing special for this being a highlight video.

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It'd piss off the fanbase but I'd take Cross, fully confident I can land a quality EDGE or two later on.

and the only guy worth trading up for but the price might be too steep

He's very good imo, but people have lost their minds over him and basically rejecting all other trade ups.

I was expecting more for a highlight video. Against ND, he looks slow off the snap. Maybe it's the scheme. Read and react or something. There are three running plays in the film where he is unblocked. Not hard to shine in those. Against Boston College and Jacksonville State, he looks the best, but not sure those Tackles he was going against were very good at all.

But then again, he is not being talked about as the #1 overall pick in the draft, but maybe the 4th or 5th DE off the board. Just not sure I am seeing enough to spend a ton of draft capital to move up to 11-13 range to get him.

Hopefully it is just the scheme that makes him look tentative off the snap at times.

If Thibodeaux or Walker falls past #10, sure I'd consider it. If Johnson or Karliftas falls to around #20, also probably game. As mentioned above, I'm not sure you spend a bunch of picks to grab the 5th best DE in the draft, needs to be a for-certain impact player to spend big or the right price to spend smart.

That's more the way I am seeing this too.

Ojabo has that speed off the edge I was looking for out of Johnson. And maybe it is there for Johnson too, I just didn't really see it.

Karliftas reminds me a bit of Maxx Crosby. High motor guy. Ojabo is the speed guy.

Would love those two paired up in the future.

I haven't watched Thomas yet. Maybe Thomas and Ojabo if we can stay at 29 and 30 and grab both. Let Ojabo heal up while Clark is playing out his contract.

Or just draft a guy that doesn't have to sit out his entire rookie season...

I'm also looking a bit long term here instead of just 2022, htismaqe. But I get your point.

Ojabo is a top 10 talent. We have Clark in the fold, and he is going to play with that salary. Worth a flier IMO.

Different scenario, but Mahomes sitting a year turned out okay. This may work out awesome too.

He tore his Achilles tendon. I'm thinking long-term too, about a future where Ojabo loses his explosive first step and is never the same player he was before the injury...

I get it. I'm gambling he will. Like KD in basketball. He looks the same as before his injury. I'm leaning that way. 20 years ago. No. Not so much.

You just don't trade away an asset like Tyreek Hill for a roll of the dice. They got a ton of picks back and they need to make sure they're used properly.

Ojabo's youth makes a massive difference here.

The studies done on achilles recoveries are pretty clear at this point - your odds of coming back 100% are really good if you're in your early/mid 20s and just crater as you hit your 30s and beyond.

If he falls to 29 and you can pair him with another draftee later, I'd be okay with that I think.

I'm just not in favor of trading up at all.

I'm with ya.

Like I said - giving up the same thing we gave up to get Mahomes so we can go grab DE3 and probably DL6 is just kinda crazy to me.

He's fine. I don't see him as orders of magnitude more likely to be an excellent player than Karlaftis or even Thomas. And less likely to be truly great than Ojabo.

I don't see any reason at all to go crazy for the guy.

Maybe I am out of my mind here, but I think I would rather find a way to get Wyatt than either Karlaftis or Johnson. I like the idea of rebuilding inside to outside, adding Wyatt, Jones, and taking lots of chances on higher upside edges in the mid rounds. Spags can probably use all available pass rushers in zone blitz scenarios in a 4-3 under.

Add Bonitto in a falcon package and we are really cooking with gas. Maybe it's too optimistic though.

I'm out of my mind for sure. I've fully flipped on the trade scenarios this year and want both those guys. It's expensive, but I think worth it.

He's a much better DE than Ojabo and way better than Karlaftis or Thomas in terms of complete package. Kid is legit and the only guy I think that ends up better in the NFL is Hutchinson.

Interesting. I've only watched the highlight video I posted, and I don't see anything in that clip that makes me go "whoa, this guy is special". What am I missing crow?

Try his Senior Bowl reps. That's where he made his money - https://youtu.be/UInHP3EG2F0

My opinion:

Very disciplined in his assignments. He doesn't just rush with reckless abandon. He sets the edge and plays the run as well as any DE in this draft. That's important in the NFL if you're going to take a DE high. Those guys with highlight reels full of sacks but nothing else to go with it don't get me too excited. He's shown he has that anchor against tackles and he can make plays outside of that space. The other half of this is vision. He seems to know what's in front of him most of the time and he's only just getting started. He sees the run develop and maintains his gap, squares to the line, is aware of pulling guards, and absorbs those guys.

He's a really good tackler. He plants, drives and lifts through the opponent. You don't see him just glancing off guys, he's making them feel it. It's a physicality thing.

I like his hands. He has a really good swat and double-armed swat to get tackles arms off him. He has a really good rip. He has a really solid stiff arm. This shows he understands to use his length and to keep guys off his frame. If you're going to win reps in the NFL, you have to be good at keeping tackles from latching on or you lose. He's getting better at it. It's a big deal IMO and it's something where I think he really benefited from transferring to FSU because I feel like they teach the game better to the guys than Georgia does. This was also his first year starting. I think you have to take that into consideration. This guy is a pretty good player right now, just imagine a year or two of learning NFL technique so that he gets better at getting free.

He really converts speed to power well. He doesn't have a great get-off but once he's moving he can really deliver a shot. He rocks tackles backward routinely. I watched him do it at Georgia in his limited reps. Kind of a thing with those Georgia guys too is that they rotate so much that these guys don't get a ton of reps. He really worked on things at FSU and you saw him use that power to make plays. In any event, he also has solid power overall. You don't see him get driven off the line very often, or really ever. You more often see this kid bench pressing dudes than the other way around.

He played both sides but a lot at LDE. A lot more strength usually on that side. So, he was able to get used to facing strength and using his strength to offset that. His strength and power caused issues for LTs.

What I don't like right now is his very average get-off. He's kind of slow off the snap. I think a lot of that has to do with this really being his first season of playing much. A little bit of overthinking and reading pre-snap. He'll get faster off the ball, he has all the athleticism in the world. If I were a guessing man, this would be where most guys get turned off. I'm not too worried about it myself. I think he's going to improve there and I think he's going to improve his hands to fight through and make plays more quickly.

The other thing is he doesn't have an elite closing burst. He's solid, but again, I think much of it has to do with learning to see the game and process faster. He's not doing anything to hurt his team but he'd be making even more plus plays. He looked faster off the snap and faster to the finish when he knew what was coming in every game I watched. For me, it's all about reps.

He doesn't have great bend and flatten ability. Honestly, I don't know that he's been coached up on it that well. Again, he has athleticism. He has quick movement ability you can see with his spin moves and so forth.

Overall though, this is a guy that's primarily going to win with power and technique in the NFL and that's not a bad thing to me. I favor guys with power over guys that don't, so maybe that's why I think more of him than some? I've seen him comped to Cam Jordan and Preston Smith and I think those are pretty fair comparisons coming out of college. If he turns into Cam Jordan in the pros, well then he's worth every bit of trading up for. If he's Preston Smith, I'd rather get him at 29 but that is most definitely not going to happen. I think, in the draft, you're banking on him becoming the former. If you get the latter, you still have a good player.

Okay. Now that was impressive. Thanks!

I'm wondering if the scheme at FSU held him back some?

Quasi-Unpopular Opinion: J Williams is the ONLY target worth trading up multiple picks for in this draft.

I know, I know, the DL, but this draft doesn't have a lot of world-beaters on DL and is actually pretty deep at second-tier EDGE talent. D Wyatt? Sure, I like him too but his sack stats don't line up with CPs vision of him. Johnson or Karliftas, I like them just fine as well, but in truth neither has much hype from national pundits and I don't see much from either that suggests they'll be the next Jared Allen for us. Where's the young N Suh or J Clowney that has ESPN draft heads going crazy for that we'd be getting with our package of picks? There's plenty of talent in the second round with Ojabo, Ebiketie, Enagbare, Bonito, etc... that could pan out to be just as impactful pass rushers. Meanwhile, Williams has seemingly separated himself from the pack as a clear top-tier talent and is being compared to Devonta, Waddle, and even Tyreek regularly despite being injured.

If we want a guaranteed high-impact player in the 1st my money's on trading up for J Williams.

This is gonna shock you guys to your core.

I don't wanna trade up. Don't chase high impact players. Just stock the team with good players. Develop them into that type of guy if you can.

I'd say the vast majority of sports pundits disagree with you very much on the value of Jermaine Johnson. Pretty much everyone has him 14 or higher. Here's a quick synopsis:

Josh Edwards (CBS) - 14 to BAL
Peter Schrager (NFL) - 8 to ATL
Luke Easterling (Draftwire) - 16 to NYG in trade down
Kevin Hanson (Sports Illustrated) - 8 to ATL
Clarence Hill (Star Telegram) - 13 to HOU
Pete Fiutak (College Football News) - 8 to ATL
Zach Kruse (Touchdown Wire) - 14 to BAL
Matt Fitzgerald (Barstool Sports) - 14 to BAL
Chris Trapasso (CBS) - 18 to PHI
Aaron Wilson (PFN) - 10 to NYJ
Sam Monson (PFF) - 26 to TEN
Draftek Staff - 8 to ATL
Ryan Honey (Elite Sports NY) - 29 to KC
Matthew Freedman (Fantasy Pros) - 13 to HOU
Logan Ulrich (NFL Trade Rumors) - 8 to ATL
Eddie Brown (San Diego Tribune) - 10 to NYJ
Sayre Bedinger (NFL Spin Zone) - 7 to NYG
Pete Prisco (CBS) - 7 to NYG
Dan Servodidio (Fantasy Alarm) - 13 to HOU
Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz (USA Today) - 13 to HOU
Charles Davis (NFL) - 7 to NYJ
Walter Cherpinsky (Walter Football) - 8 to ATL
Charlie Campbell (Walter Football) - 8 to ATL
Doug Farrar (Touchdown Wire) - 16 to NYG in trade down
PFF Staff - 9 to SEA
Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News) - 13 to HOU
Shane Hallam (Draft Countdown) - 4 to NYJ
Ryan Wilson (CBS) - 14 to BAL
Zack Patraw (Sports Illustrated) - 19 to PHI
Drew Boylhart (The Huddle Report) - 4 to NYJ
Robby Esch (The Huddle Report) - 5 to NYG
Forrest Long (The Huddle Report) - 13 to HOU
Lance Zierlein (NFL) - 7 to NYG
Dane Brugler - 11th overall prospect

Somebody hacked O.City's account, y'all.

Austin needs to fix his shit.

:clap::clap::clap:

Unless you can trade those low firsts for established players....right? RIGHT?

I may have the flu or something apparently it's going around our friends group.

But if we want high impact players, we're gonna have to develop them. Not trade up picks for them. It's the curse of having a HOF coach and QB in their primes.

We ain't likely picking high enough to get blue collar guys. So the scouting dept has to be on their shit.

Oh absolutely still do that. THats one way to get those impact guys.

It's okay guys. It's still him.

Somebody want to break down the DE's based on style of play for a novice like myself? I've read a lot of you smarter draft/scouting guys comment on certain players, ie. how two different ends drafted in a certain mock are basically talented in the same way or both profile with the same style and would be redundant.

I've never done mock drafts before, but in this offseason boredom with an abundance of picks I've probably done 10 a day on the different sites. That being said, I'm not smart enough to know that drafting Cam Thomas and Karlaftis both is basically getting the same type of guy (not sure if this is 100% accurate). Anybody care to group the type of DE's together for a rookie mock drafter?

:LOL:

Who would you trade up for? I mean damn Johnson is going too 10 and Karlaftis is being mocked in mid teens. Who else is there unless it’s a WR?

I agree that he's rated to go in the top 15-20 of this draft and that he's a very solid DE, but I've yet to hear a lot of real buzz about him. What super-elite trait does he possess? Are we getting a Bosa-type game changer? He's just not as exciting of a prospect as adding J Williams who has the potential to hit a home run with any play.

He has elite strength at the point of attack, that's his most elite trait. He's not going backward. He's going to, for the most part, shut down the run game to his side and he's fairly adept at getting to the QB. I've kind of analyzed this already in another thread though. No, you're not getting Bosa in the 11-15 range. Bosa was the #3 overall pick. That's Aidan Hutchinson in this draft. You want those guys you gotta suck ass.

There's about 20 WRs that are a homerun threat on any play in this draft. What makes Williams so special in that regard? Surely there's a lot more to his game than that one item? That's where I am with Johnson, he's pretty good at everything and just getting started (much like Williams last year was his first as a starter and the dude put up 70 tackles, 18 tfl, and 12 sacks).

:clap::clap::clap:

Nobody.

There's not enough separation amongst the top 6-8 WR's to justify the cost.

If your starting line is Nick Bosa for DEs….then you’re never going to be satisfied. We aren’t ever coming close to a top 3 pick.

I think they need to just sit back and stick to their board until pick 20 comes up. Then if a Karlaftis or Williams or Burke is there you can discuss a package which includes our extra 3rd and 4th rd picks.

Nothing more

:clap: