<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Four Cardinals appear in Baseball America&#39;s Top 100 Prospects list:<br><br>▪️OF Jordan Walker (4)<br>▪️RHP Tink Hence (47)<br>▪️SS Masyn Winn (48) <br>▪️LHP Matthew Liberatore (79) <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> are one of seven teams with three players in the Top 50. <a href="https://t.co/Mcpt0nwGmF">https://t.co/Mcpt0nwGmF</a> <a href="https://t.co/vHI0v1BefJ">pic.twitter.com/vHI0v1BefJ</a></p>&mdash; Cardinals Player Development (@CardsPlayerDev) <a href="https://twitter.com/CardsPlayerDev/status/1615800027087245314?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Is Liberatore ever going to amount to anything, or will he wash out like the rest of Mo's faberge eggs?

Seems fairly unlikely at this point.

Curve is too loopy and the fastball doesn't have enough movement or life for him to have the iffy command of it that he does.

He's still awfully young but I've seen zero growth from him the last couple years apart from one decent relief outing where he seemed to be attacking and getting better depth on his breaker.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-conte...rdinals-23.png


The last time the Cardinals ranked worse than 20th in baseball in wRC+ was in 1978. From Whiteyball to Jockettynomics to Moneyball to Mozeliakanalia, the Cards almost always manage to score runs.

The Cards are so solid that they’re almost uninteresting.

My think the Cards are a 89-93 win team and not quite in the tier of the very best in baseball, but ZiPS disagrees, putting St. Louis in the same range as the Padres, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, and Mets. My personal feeling is that the Cards really need a true ace at the top of the rotation, but perhaps that’s just my inclination to play devil’s advocate.



https://www.fangraphs.com/

[QUOTE=Prison Bitch;16747108]https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-conte...rdinals-23.png


The last time the Cardinals ranked worse than 20th in baseball in wRC+ was in 1978. From Whiteyball to Jockettynomics to Moneyball to Mozeliakanalia, the Cards almost always manage to score runs.

The Cards are so solid that they’re almost uninteresting.

My think the Cards are a 89-93 win team and not quite in the tier of the very best in baseball, but ZiPS disagrees, putting St. Louis in the same range as the Padres, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, and Mets. My personal feeling is that the Cards really need a true ace at the top of the rotation, but perhaps that’s just my inclination to play devil’s advocate.

_________________________________________

Depends on Jack Flaherty. He pitches the way he can and its all good. Contract year as well.

That's about right.

The Cardinals have no glaring flaws to speak of apart from not having a single 1 or 2 'playoff' starter.

They're a team built to make the post-season rather than win when they get there. Given that DeWitt has flat stated that their goal is to win 88 games and 'play meaningful baseball in September' - none of this is even a little surprising.

They're a solid, ultimately boring, baseball team that doesn't have the force multipliers they need to make noise in October.

Interestingly, 'replacement level' is somewhere between 48 and 52 wins.

And that graph has a total of about 48 wins, suggesting anywhere from 96-100 wins.

You figure a .500 team is about gets about 10 wins from its SPs, 5 from the 'pen (so 15 from the staff) and 18 from the position player for 81 total. This says the Cardinals will have an average bullpen, a SP staff about 20% better than average and a position player group about 2/3 better than average.

I mean...maybe? Not an awful breakdown.

{shrug}

Remember, Symborski warns agaisnt adding depth chart estimates to arrive at a win total.

But directionally, yes, this is implying prob a 93-96 win team.

I do think that sort of disclaimer is essentially saying "yeah, I'm building a fudge factor into my numbers..."

Because really, it should be a pretty close approximation. But since he's not sure how some of the IPs will break out or PAs, he boosts everyones numbers by a tick.

I wonder how accurate you'd get if you set the 'top' team at 105 wins, the bottom team at 105 losses, rank ordered the respective teams by projected WAR and then staggered wins/losses proportionately among them.

More math than I feel like doing, but it would effectively remove his fudge factor from the equation.

sounds right. Exactly what Dewitt wants. Compete to play playoff baseball. Not win. Well maybe if they get hot at the right time like 2011. Lots of but, if’s and maybe’s in that plan.

That's Mozeliak's honey hole friendo.

Ken Rosenthal says the Cardinals and Marlins are talking about a trade. Cards want Pablo Lopez and Miami wants one of our outfielders.

Who is a match for Lopez?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trade news: All-Star second baseman Luis Arraez is going to the Miami Marlins and right-hander Pablo Lopez is headed to the Minnesota Twins, sources tell ESPN. Deal is done. Players are being informed right now. More are involved.</p>&mdash; Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1616523095656857600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 20, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Typical Mo, we tried really hard. Gave everything we got but came in second place.

I'm not sure there was ever a different outcome possible.