"Gotta keep the powder dry fellas, you can't sign shitty players in free agency if you spend it all on a player like Soto".

There is a zero percent chance Soto is ever a Cardinal.

Again - our little boy has grown up. Moe would never say "dry powder" these days.

He'd use 2500 words to say the same thing.

"We're an organization built around our pipeline and we have an organizational philosophy built on next man up and organizational redundancy to ensure our paradigm is focused on competition and dynamic flexibility. Will we reach out side of the organization to supplement the roster? Of course, if the situation is right and the player has the correct mindset, we'll look to buttress our internal talent. But we're just not going to deviate from our organizational archetype...."

Blah blah blah blah.

He knows how to say "We don't want to put all of our eggs in one basket" (actual Mozeliak statement from 5+ years ago) in a way that crosses your eyes so you tune out before he actually says it.

Yeah, he's not gonna have the stones to pull the trigger. But again - this is a 23 yr old Ted Williams. I'd like to tell myself that he could pivot here, but he won't.

And hell, if it's one of those situations where Boras requires an opt-out every 2 years starting in 2025, I don't want him involved anyway. The opt-outs so radically alter the calculus of these deals. It makes it truly impossible to build a team and when that guy is your anchor tenant, it puts you in an untenable situation long-term. And there's nothing but downside in the deal.

There is a scenario where a team like the Cardinals could get Soto. The move would be to unload the farm for him (Gorman, Liberatore, and a whole bunch more) and then take your 2 shots at a World Series title with him. Then trade him after those 2 shots (he would have 1 year remaining then) for as much as you can get back to replenish the assets originally given up. If it worked well, you could get a lot for that last season (or half season) of Soto.

It wouldnt be a long term acquisition, and would be risky, but a midmarket team might make that play.

The Gnats won't.

They don't so much care if you can't get him re-signed, that's a YOU problem. They're not going to give a shit what happens after he's dealt.

So they're not going to price him at 'rental' rates. If for no other reason than they won't have to, IMO. If you're the Mets you absolutely pay what it costs. By 2025 (when a Soto deal gets up to full throat), virtually all their long-term liabilities are gone. They'll have one more year of Marte at $20 million, they'll have the Lindor deal and then they'll have probably come up with a LTC for Alonso.

So like $55 million committed, let's say $85 million with Alonso (and even then, Marte's commitment is only 1 more year so it doesn't really matter). For a team that can/will likely carry a $250 million payroll.

To get a hitter who's likely on his way to the HoF w/ a 99% vote total on his first ballot? Yeah - they'll make the money work. And the Nationals know it, so they likely won't offer a negotiating window but they'll make it cost the same as if they had.

Maybe the entire market freezes them out and a 'rental' price tag is the best they can do. But it seems damn unlikely.

There's an absolutely close to 0% chance the Cardinals go after Soto for a few reasons.

1. FO won't want to part to with what's needed to acquire him.
2. FO doesn't seem to want to spend that much $ on a player.
3. They could have signed Luis Robert and DeWitt was on record as saying the reason why is because they didn't want to pay him for a second contract.

"We pay him, then if he's good we have to pay him again..." Mozeliak doubled down on it a few weeks later lamenting that all that money would just get the player signed - he'd still be able to go to arbitration, FA, etc...

The Luis Robert saga was when Dewitt and company just took the mask right off and made it clear they simply don't care that much about trying to win a championship.

And it was also the clearest demonstration yet of just how well Mozeliak knows the market. He publicized an an offer that was like 98% of what Robert signed for. And yet his owner flat out stated it was the SECOND contract that spooked them. So it clearly wasn't the extra million or so it would've taken to close the deal on the first one. Mozeliak bid what he bid because he KNEW it wouldn't get the job done.

The Luis Robert experience exposed this entire front office for what it truly is. And they haven't made any effort to hide from it since.

What I'm suggesting is pay the full fortune to get him now, use him this season and next hoping to win a title, then trade his last year to the team that's ready to open the coffers.

He is only in arbitration now so the payroll cost would be low.

So you pay X to land him, then trade him either in the offseason or trade deadline when he is on his last year for Y return.

X would be greater than Y, but possibly not by that much. Cause 1 year of Soto is gonna get you a hefty return on the back end.

I dont think it will actually happen that way, and if it does, the Cards are just one of several teams that could do it. But I read about this scenario in a MLBTR chat and so I couldnt help but post about it here to look savvy.

Uh.

His arb2 salary smashed the record. He's making $17.1 million this year. And he's a Super 2 guy so his Arb 3 and 4 years are gonna be MASSIVE. Betts presently has the record at $27 million. I'm guessing Soto gets $30 in his final year of eligibility and probably about $25 in the year prior.

So the payroll hit is gonna be in the $50-55 million range over the next two seasons. Surplus value on that if he hits like he can hit is probably $35-40 million over those two years but you get no additional 'franchise equity' boost because you can't count on building around him.

So you pay exclusively for the surplus value. That's 6-7 wins (my calculus is more conservative than sportswriters but also more in line for how teams actually pay for these guys).

The average WARP for a prospect ranked around Gorman was ranked is going to be in the 18-20 range. Now that's over his complete 6 years so that figure won't be pure surplus. Over the first 3 years you figure on a guy getting about 1/3 of that figure - so in terms of pure surplus (when he's cheap pre-arb) you're looking at about 6-7 WAR.

For JUST those two+ seasons at his likely salary level, you're looking at a surplus value proposition of roughly Nolan Gorman.

There is just a zero percent chance the Nationals trade him for that. And the 'full freight' cost you're talking about is going to be greater than the Cardinals can (or probably should) be willing to stomach for those 2 years. Walker/Winn/Gorman will DWARF that surplus value over their 6 years of control.

If you can extend him - do what it takes. If you can't, sit it out or maybe offer them Gorman and a second arm (a McGreevy sort).

I don't know that either of those scenarios are terribly realistic.

I dont think it is terribly realistic but a guy like Jerry Dipoto might try it. The best case scenario here is:

Pay a FORTUNE for Soto, then win both the 2022 and 2023 World Series with him as your main star. He wins two WS MVPs and his legend (and trade value along with it) explodes.

Then heading into 2024, his last year of team control, trade that stud WS hero. You could land a FORTUNE in that trade.

Net net, you get about just as many huge prospects back as you gave up, and you have two rings and a case for the Hall of Fame earned in the interim.

The worst case scenario is he gets hurt or just flops, and you barely get anything back in 2024, and you never won shit in the process. No HOF there - thats due cause for termination.

So the whole thing would be a huge gamble but Jerry Dipoto might be degen enough to go for it. I dont know about the Cardinals - I cant claim to be an expert on the Cards by any means.

Interesting to think about anyway.

If you're the Mariners and you can get him for Marte, Brash and say Hancock (or Stoudt) then I guess it's worth the effort.

Marte and Brash just have MASSIVE red flags as prospects. Huge ceilings, but they essentially have no floor. And both of them are spinning their wheels quite a bit this year.

Hancock has lost a little prospect steam this year whereas Stoudt seems to be gaining momentum (well, not lately, but he was through the spring), but neither have both juice and pedigree (like, say, George Kirby). So you can afford to dangle one of those 2 in that sort of deal.

But I don't think the Nationals take it. And that's probably about as far extended as any team would get. They'd have to believe a great deal in Marte and he's kinda stalled a bit in A+ this year. That whole trio of hot-shit shortstop prospects from last season (Marte, Luciano and Volpe) have all plateaued this season so any of their teams are likely better served holding them because I don't think they'll get the value they want.

But if any of them can headline a Soto rental - sure, pull that trigger.

So you're opinion on this is that the players we would have to give up can produce the same WAR over the next 2.5 years. So unless you are resigning him to a long term contract, which we all agree, Mo won't offer an extension he will take. It's not a good deal for us.

I'm not sure they can offer the same WAR over the next 2.5 years, no. I mean certainly not on a per/AB basis for sure. So when you figure in organizational depth that would back-fill around those 'lost' ABs, the 'marginal' wins provided by Soto over the lost players will probably be a bit higher until you consider the opportunity cost of the lost salary.

I'm saying they will probably offer similar surplus WAR (when accounting for his arb salaries in excess of $50 million) over the next 2.5 years but with the added benefit of having 3.5+ more years of team control/player thereafter.

And if you're a team that's unwilling to pay for Soto, then you're unwilling to pay for ANY star. So at that point, surplus value has to continue to rule the day.

Bit of an aside but DJ I think you are actually underestimating what some team will give up to trade for Soto. This is gonna be like the Herschel Walker trade. A player this good, this young, with this much team control remaining just doesnt come available for trade very often. This is unprecedented really.

For that reason I dont think he is going anywhere this trading deadline. I think it will be the offseason near the winter meetings. This transaction will define the careers of Mike Rizzo and whoever the counterparty ends up being.

Cardinals take Pete Hansen, lefty SP out of UT with their third round pick.

Pretty much seems to be the same as their first two guys. Lefty with plus command (better command than their first two picks) but fringe fastball (worse velocity than their first two) and a big breaker.

I can’t quite understand this thought process. They did this like 8 years ago when they went crazy on lefty pitchers and NONE of them hit.

Entire Cardinals draft so far has been college kids.

3 lefty starters, a righty starter, 2 LHH outfielders and a LHH catcher.

I hate it when they have these drafts. Happens every few years when they just get stuck in a rut and it always gives me the impression they just didn't have a very good feel for the draft.

And it usually doesn't work out terribly well. They tend to be limited in volume as well as impact. Very few contributors who never do much more than flutter around the margins of the roster.

And it doesn't even matter what they get super-focused on. They just emphasize a couple of areas, beat them to death and then the draft just kinda putters out...

Looks like the Royals have also gone entirely with college players this year.

I mean...I guess there's some reason for that. Definitely doesn't feel like something you see very often and yet both teams located in Missouri have done so. I'm sure another team or two has as well.

Wonder why that is? It's not typical that the college ranks would just be more loaded than HS. COVID eligibility year thing, I wonder?

Royals -- All College
Cards -- All College
Orioles -- 1.1 was HS, all the rest College
Chisox -- 1.26 HS, rest college
Reds -- 1.32 HS, rest college
Tigers -- All college
Astros -- All College
Angels-- All college
Twins -- All College
Yankees -- All College
Giants -- All College


Rockies, Dodgers, Brewers only drafted 1 HS player and I saw 6 other teams who only drafted 2.

So this is just a REALLY college heavy draft. 2/3 of the teams in the draft appear to have drafted 2 or fewer prep players through 9 rounds.

I just don't feel like that's common at all.

Weird that it's all most lefties with college pitchers with higher floors but lower ceilings. Makes it seem that they are about to make some deals and want some quick available help in the next 1-2 years.

They are going to have a glut of junk baller lefty pitchers, Mo is desperately searching for the next Tom Glavine.

So is Wynn a legit SS prospect?

Hell yes.

He's Furcal with smoother fielding mechanics. I LOVE the kid defensively. Offensively he takes good ABs though I'm not sure how his power will translate. But I see a kid who can give you the same energy on offense as Edman does but perhaps do so without the super high/low periods that Edman has.

Probably a little more steady but without those 2-3 week stretches that Edman sometimes has where he's just white-hot.

To my eyes, Winn is the leadoff hitter and GG shortstop we've been trying to find since Ozzie declined.

Absolute worst case scenario is that he's Jose Iglesias w/ more power and speed. An outstanding defensive player for a decade who has a decent BA and can steal 25+ bags.

I don't see any scenario at all where he's not the starting SS in St. Louis 2 years from now. There are just too many tools that will play at this level. He's gonna be a 3-4 WAR player who gets it in ways that don't stand out; very similar to Edman in that regard (again).

Walker is my #1 prospect without question but the gap between him and Winn is, to me, smaller than the gap between Winn and the #3 guy (I dunno - Herrera?).

EDIT: I'll just quote myself from a few weeks ago before folks finally noticed the guy at the Futures Game:

I do have to change that up a bit though - it's not probably the strongest arm in the minors (it IS the strongest), rather it's probably the strongest arm in all of organized baseball.

The kid has a cannon. And sometimes, like all kids that play with a little flash, he enjoys showing it off. He's just a damn fun player.

So would you move him for Soto?

You move anyone for Soto. You dont make a prospect unavailable for a 23 year old HoFer who is the closest thing to Barry Bonds at the plate.

For sure.

But unless they know they can sign Soto and keep him in STL long term (they won't) I don't think you can.

Any team trading for him at this stage is going to do so contingent on having an extension ironed out with Soto and Boras. No team is going to trade what is needed to land 3 playoff runs worth of Soto without having an extension in place and the Nationals wont trade him for what would be equal in money based on the remaining 2.5 years. Without the extension in place, the gap between the offers and the asking price will be so vast that nothing will progress.

Like...straight up? Well, yeah.

As like the third piece in a deal where I don't think I can get him signed? No.

I mean if you're asking Walker, Gorman, Carlson, Winn for Soto without a contract - no, I'm not doing that.

But with a contract? I mean...I dunno. Maybe. He's sooooooo goooooood. And he's post-season tested. And his skills should all age exceptionally well.

I mean this is the Miguel Cabrera deal all over again. And the Tigers were said to have given up a ton in real time - turns out they didn't give up much at all. And that's USUALLY how these things work (unless you're the Cardinals and you trade the NL CY winner plus Zac Gallen for 1.5 years of Marcel Ozuna).

But honestly, I don't think anybody can touch that deal so I don't think the Cardinals would have to go that high. And if the Nats insist on including Corbin in there as well, that's a HUGE barrier to entry.

Everything is fluid but the short answer is that unless your answer is "I'd be willing to give up the biggest trade package in modern baseball history for that guy" then you're doing it wrong.

He's the most valuable trade asset to hit the block since Cabrera and I can't think of anybody who was this good, this young, to get dealt before that.

Very probably.

At least at the deadline. If he doesn't get traded until the off-season, I could see the Nats reducing their demands to more reasonable 'two year rental' prices.

But again, I wouldn't put it past the Mets to go ham here. If Boras doesn't want to get an extension worked out, I could STILL see the Mets looking at the 2+ years they have with Scherzer, Lindor in his prime, Marte still productive and say "**** it - Alvarez and Mauricio for Soto and Corbin and we'll worry about the rest later. It's time to win a ring..."

The Mets are just such a wild card in all this.

I dont think there is any shot the Nationals would accept that offer.

The ZiPS projection on Soto's surplus value over the next 2 years is around $90M. That's worth more than Alvarez and Mauricio. Why would they reduce their return just to get rid of Corbin?

ZIPS uses an asinine $9 million/win projection that doesn't make any sense in relation to the actual market.

Again, Soto is going to have around $50 million in salaries over the next two years. I'm fine projecting him at about 15 WAR over those two seasons.

NOBODY is paying $10 million/WAR at the top of the scale. Not a single team for a single player. At that top end of the market they're looking at around $6 million/win. That's $90 million in market value vs. $50 million in salary.

He's $40 million in surplus value.

A top 10 prospect is projected to be around 18-20 wins. A top 5 guy is nearer 24 over the first 6 years of the deal and thus around 10 in the first 3 cheap years.

Alvarez alone carries a projected surplus value of somewhere in the $60 million range. If you consider him a 65 FV player, that checks out almost identically to my analysis above.

Or if you insist on sticking to your $9 million zips war and Soto's $90 million in surplus value, then again, Alvarez alone and his 10 pre-arb win are worth that same $90 in terms of pure projection.

On the flip side, Patrick Corbin is owed $60+ million over the next 2+ seasons. You want to talk about 'surplus value' and then hand-waive the fact that the Nationals are $60 million upside down in a depreciating asset? And act like unloading that contract has no value to them? From a strict asset analysis, it eats up all or most of the surplus value of Soto's deal arb years. Yeah, it's that damn bad.

If Soto doesn't get an extension in place, Alvarez, Mauricio and unloading the Corbin liability is absolutely as good as they'll do, IMO. Who's going to trump it?

The money Soto is about to get sure makes that Harper deal look good, doesn’t it?

If I’m the Cardinals front office, I add him. I strongly considering taking on two years of Patrick Corbin for $50 ($10M of his 2024 salary is deferred) to lessen my prospect pay out. And I just write the check. They could afford it, easily.

Top end of the scale is not $6M.

It's $8-8.5M.

Guys like Baez and Schwarber got $6M. Stroman got $7M. Bryant got $7.2M. Scherzer got $8M. Seager got $8.7M. Jansen got $8.8M.

You can best bet that teams will pay more for Soto than ****ing Baez and Schwarber.

Bryant and Schwarber aren’t up of the scale guys. Betts, Trout; those guys are around 6.

Scherzer is a pitcher and a different market. Seager just got a stupid deal from a bad team that needed to overpay to get FA talent.

But hell make it 7. Still doesn’t move the needle much. Now he’s between $50-60 in surplus value which is again about where 10 wins of projected surplus from Alvarez alone lands you.

If you want to get Soto even cheaper player wise, you take on Stephen Strasburg's contract. That's where the Dodgers could involved easier. They also have a shit ton of contracts coming off the books.

Strasburg has a full NTC.

And very probably the most toxic contract in league history.

He's owed about $150 million still over the next 4+ seasons and may simply not be physically sound enough to ever contribute at this point.

I'm not sure you could package Acuna w/ his insanely under market contract w/ Strasburg and get that deal made.

Strasburg is a horror show for any team on a budget. And hell, even the Dodgers do seem to have limits. They lost Scherzer and Seager last off-season and seem concerned they could lose Turner as well.

Very few teams (probably none) can just take on a $35 million/yr liability and shrug it off. Not in the luxury tax era when that $35 million could turn into $60+ million as quick as a hiccup.

thanks to Flores we have more talent in the pipeline than we have had in years.

I’ve read many articles on Walker that say his ceiling is an MVP and if he stays healthy and hungry HOF. Obviously Soto is way above Walkers potential talent. He has proven he is the real deal. So does Bader, O’Neill and another same level prospect get er done or is the Mets players just superior to ours?

I don’t see the tightwad Dewitt and the incompetent Mo take on salary instead of trading more talent. Even though they got $50 million from the Rockies to pay Arenado.

If taking on money becomes crucial to the deal, the Dodgers and other cash rich teams start to get involved and we have no chance.

I missed this.

**** YOU, DUNCAN!!!!!

Like you don't remember that this is a REAL sore subject of mine and aren't twisting the knife.

I WARNED YOU GUYS NOT TO HIRE MATHENY! This isn't my fault. Leave me alone, dammit.

!@#$!@#$%!

How the hell did we not sign Bryce Harper?!?! Boras was practically BEGGING us to do it. Ugh.

Now I'm irritated again. Such a monumentally stupid and truly franchise altering decision. "GiVe DeXy A cHaNcE!!!11!1"

Morons. All of them are morons.

Didn’t Titus jr and Luis Robert’s want to sign with the Cardinals but they said, no we are not paying a few measly millions to get the player. A few million. :mad:

True but remember who the agent for both Soto and Strasburg are.

Yup. Tatis Jr was evidently at a Cardinals summer league camp but I wont fault them too much there. He just wasn’t highly regarded. But for an organization who seems to sign every legacy option available to them, missing on Tatis when they were his top choice is a rough miss.

Robert, OTOH, was just weapons grade arrogance and stupidity. It was peak Mozeliak.

Nah, that's on DeWitt.

You don’t think Moe could’ve gotten that done?

I do. Dewitt, by all accounts, provides a budget and gets out of the way. Robert was in the budget but Mozeliak spent those funds elsewhere.

Foolishly.

DeWitt made the comment about having to pay a player a second contract.

There's things to criticize Mozeliak for (Ozuna for Alcantara being a huge one right now), but I think he works within the parameters DeWitt gives him for a budget.

If you want to argue Mozeliak does a poor job managing said budget and he, along with DeWitt, are foolish for not wanting to have a losing season for 2-3 years in order to finish above .500 every year with a faint shot at PO success with marginal upgrades before and during the season, I won't disagree.

Mozeliak's approach is the polar opposite of Jocketty's, which was say **** tomorrow, today's the only thing that matters (which is what ultimately got him fired). He does half-assed attempts that are cost effective at improving the roster in order to keep cheaper, cost controlled players long-term.

The last time I think the FO truly cared about winning was during the 2014 season.

Yeah, Dewitt said that, but Mozeliak said the same thing (something about winning the bid only gets oh the right to the player and you still have to pay him in arb, etc…)

He’s parroting what Mozeliak told him. Again, that’s baseball ops and DeWitt doesn’t involve himself in that outside of providing a payroll figure.

Robert was Mozeliak’s doing. I don’t think for one second that DeWitt put cuffs on him on this one international signing.

This is the only quote I found attributed to Mozeliak on the matter in 2017

The second contract comment came from DeWitt.

Regardless, I think Mozeliak is doing exactly what DeWitt wants him to do, which is he above .500, slimmer of hope for a PO run, while having any change in payroll remain flat or trending up as revenue rises.

The org’s philosophy won’t change unless DeWitt or his son sells.

Oh, and I’m not convinced the organization cared about winning in 2014. It was just cost effective.

The competitive fire in this organization came from LaRussa. When he left, that win at all costs mentality went with him. DeWitt has been content cashing checks ever since.

Winning is just a happy accident.

Eh, I’d argue the moves immediately after 2011 were made with winning in mind.

If Jordan Walker isn’t on the table, I don’t think the deal gets done. Bader and ONeill just aren’t good enough headliners.

MAYBE you could get it done with Gordman and Winn and ONeill and Carlson. But awfully hard and draining without Walker.



I wasn’t trying to twist the knife. Sorry man. The only persons who deserve a knife twist on Harper are Mozeliak and PB.

PB hates every free agency signing.

Just read that the Nats want Corbin involved with any Soto trade. That sets the table up for me to unfortunately get my hopes up and disappointed because that request just made a potential Soto trade far more realistic on the Cardinals side. This would require far less trade capital that would allow the team to still acquire another pitcher.

That would still require spending money but I like the idea as well. I know Corbin has been rough the past two seasons but maybe there is some hope he could plug one of the many holes in the pitching depth after a change of scenery and no longer being on a team that has no interest in competing this year.

If they do indeed insist on Corbin being in the deal it probably eliminates the Cardinals because there's still going to be a considerable package of prospects going to the Nationals. And it would probably be without an extension because the Cardinals would have to double the contract offer they wouldnt even give to Pujols.

Don't see the Cardinals doing that.

Probably eliminates another team that could offer arguably the best package of prospects for just Soto in the Padres.

Yankees going to make it happen and let Judge walk.

Who gets it done from the Yankees? Volpe and Jasson? Neither one has looked particularly good this year.

Define not looking good.

Both players are underage for their leagues and hitting 22 and 36 points above average for their league. Volpe is only striking out 19% and has an above .200 ISO. I would say he's doing fine.

That's the question, isn't it?

Volpe just looks like a nice player; classic Yankee Hype prospect, like literally dozens before him.

I have no doubt he's a big leaguer, probably even a pretty good one - but I don't see a superstar here. And if, as is being suggested, he's not going to stick at SS - his bat is pretty average at 3b. I don't question him as a top 25ish prospect but I can't talk myself into seeing him as a top 5-8 guy as most lists have him.

Dominguez is truly remarkable as a physical specimen and raw clay but raw is really the operative term here. He's incredibly young but while that speaks to his ability to continue to develop, it also does make me ask if a dude that built, that young, just maxed early and doesn't have anywhere else to go. His approach really needs to take a step forward or his ceiling is Adolis Garcia (and I have little/no confidence in Garcia's staying power; flash but little substance).

Peraza to me looks like a glove first player but he does have some intriguing tools here and there. A 15HR/25 SB guy w/ a .775 OPS is a borderline All Star.

Anybody else in the top 100 from the Yankees system is just Yankee bias. I'm not buying it.

Torres would be somewhat intriguing given his youth and relatively recent dominance (last couple years notwithstanding).

If they could get a window with Torres and work on more palatable extension (seemingly unlikely, but a possibility), Dominguez, Volpe and Peraza? Maybe that's enough? It's a TON of infielders, though. They'll want a pitcher in there with an emphasis on upside over proximity, so maybe Yoendrys Gomez?

And man, at SOME point the Yankees would ask themselves about their organizational depth, wouldn't they? They can't just send stop-gaps like Donaldson out there at 3b forever. I guess DJLM and IKF can hold down 2b and SS respectively but they'd have next to nothing left on the farm.

To get a Soto deal, I think you'd have to have Soto call the shot. Soto would have to simply say he's unwilling to discuss an extension with anyone but the Yankees and put his thumb on the scale. In that event the Yankees could get it done with a more palatable package.

But hell, maybe I'm just completely off on Volpe, he IS a legit difference maker as a prospect and if the Nationals believe to be the case - yeah, there's a possibility of building a deal around him regardless of the circumstance surrounding it.

Soto would have to really want to be a Yankee in order to say he wouldn't talk extension with anyone else. There are several clubs with the cash and ability to win that could give him the same extensions.

I just don't think the Cardinals are truly a player as long as DeWitt and Mo keep putting 2 million people in the stands. The TV money will be there but until people stop spending money, they don't really need to be more competitive.

Alternatively the Nationals scouting department disagrees with me and thinks Volpe can be a 25-30 HR guy who sticks at SS, brings a polished approach and can push an .870+ OPS and bat 3rd for them. In that case, Dominguez, Peraza and Volpe would be awfully appealing to them. Especially if the Yankees take on Corbin. The Yankees can keep Torres and still maintain some youth on their IF.

If they don't pursue Judge then let Chapman, Britton and Gallo walk (and they will) it would free up 40+ million to go after Trae Turner.

NY has $100 million coming off the books this off-season. They'll be able to spend $80 million before they hit the luxury tax threshold. Corbin would eat up about $25 million of that leaving them with $55 million before they hit the threshold?

They can make all that work.

I wonder how close Cashman's ass is on the hot seat, which would force him to make a move, given the expectations of the fanbase and ownership and how they've done nothing notable in over a decade.

And I watch that team and an convinced they're set up to get mowed down in the post-season again.

There are still too many hackers in that lineup. Rizzo's resurgence helps them a ton, but IKF, Donaldson, Gallo, Gonzalez, Stanton, Trevino - none of them get on base with any regularity and they take too many uncompetitive ABs. Torres seems really close to finding his superstar form again but it always seems like he can either be a disciplined hitter OR a powerful hitter - not both. And when he's tried to be disciplined, it just hasn't stuck.

People say "well the Yankees don't need Juan Soto..." and I just don't know that I agree. He's exactly the kind of player they could really use to balance out some of their free swingers.

Because they're not pitching their way to a championship with Montgomery, Cortes and Taillon behind Cole. And Severino's shoulder is sore again and so I think you have to just count on him breaking down soon enough.

They've gotta hit game in, game out - and that approach doesn't lend itself to consistent production in the post-season.

I think trading for Soto might be a genius long-term play move given that he's younger than Judge and I think should age better than him given his frame. At some point, Judge will just take on full time DH duty.

There literally isn't a single team in baseball HISTORY that wouldn't be made substantially better by trading for Juan Soto.

Of course it's a genius move if they can get it done.

The only thing that can stop Soto is some lingering lower body injury given how powerful his base is. Or I guess a back injury.

Nobody is without risk and goofy shit like lis franc injuries can destroy a hitter and happen with nothing more than a funny step rounding a bag. But man, Soto is an incredible bet to make.

I'm curious if we'll see contracts like Correa's contract be the norm (shorter term but mega $$$) with the opportunity for players to make more guaranteed in a year or 2 while still in their prime. Obviously, that would only be something we'd see with younger players who make their debut at/before 20 (Soto, Harper, Gurrero, Tatis Jr.) as opposed to players who make their debuts from like 22-23 who opt for longer contracts (Arenado) for more pay certainty.

I honestly don't think any team that is set up to be competitive right now could go wrong with a Soto trade. It really bothers me that our guy wants to be just good enough but not great.

So I found one OF that MAYBE isn't better and it's a weird one.

1995 Cleveland Indians: Manny -- Loftin -- Belle

Belle was at his absolute beast mode best; OPS+ of 177, 50 bombs, 52 doubles, .401 OBP. A true monster. Manny was a baby but put up a .402 OBP, .960 OPS and 31 bombs of his own. Kenny Loftin played GG caliber defense, stole 54 bases and got on base at a .362 clip at the top of the order.

And when I think "well DH; AL had one in '95" I'm not entirely wrong. Yes, Juan Soto would've been un upgrade. But they had Jim Thome and his .996 OPS or a 24 yr old Brian Giles to go with Eddie Murray and his .891 w/ 21 bombs. Or a 26 yr old Jeromy Burnitz.

Man - I wonder why that team doesn't get more consideration among the all-time great lineups? Vizquel at SS, Baerga at 2b, Sorrento at 1b. So many quality players that they couldn't find room for Giles or Jeromy Burnitz.

Because of 2 reasons:

1. They didn’t win a ring despite multiple appearances.
2. 2 teams(Blue Jays, Yankees) also dominated the AL and won multiple rings.

Man - how does the tribe get an .875 OPS in over 1,000 PAs over limited and erratic playing time from Brian Giles and trade him for Ricardo Rincon?

Phew - that's bad. And Burnitz for a 34 yr old backup SS in Kevin Seitzer.

That's really lousy internal scouting.

Yeah - but I just never hear them discussed when talking about lineups.

I wonder if the team didn't come together quicker than they expected. How do you have a contender and Dennis Martinez (41), Orel Hershiser (36) and a couple of slop tossers in Charles Nagy and Mark Clark are good enough for a ring?

Maddux, Glavine, Avery, Smoltz vs. Martinez, Orel, Nagy and Ken Hill has to be the most lopsided SP matchups in WS history (when considering where Martinez and Hershiser were in their careers). Tough break and a tough matchup for Cleveland.

Isn’t Vizquel a kiddy diddler?

A Cards fan told me tonight at dinner that there’s serious talk about Soto to the Cards.

That would be an amazing lineup with Arenado & Goldy. What would the compensation going back be?


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Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, Moises Gomez, Gordon Graceffo

Not to mention far more cash for Soto than the organization wants to pay.

Found this on YouTube. I’m on my phone so can’t embed.

https://youtu.be/ZaMknnU6bHE


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The Cardinals aren't getting Soto and not giving up Walker.

You just put together a package headlined by what would be your 3rd, if Gorman still qualified as a prospect, and 5th best prospects for a 23 year old easily on a HoF course. Nah...

its 3 million in the stands ever year. He ended up spending $75 million to buy the team. 25 years later it’s worth $2 Billion. They are supposedly making, publicly $30-$50 million a year in profit.

I’m not asking Dewitt to lose money to support the team. Just put the profits back into the team. Why do you have to make a profit of $50 million? Why not pay Soto that money? Would Dewitt even miss it?

Winn and Burleson are in Baseball America's top 75 of its midseason update, so you're wrong about 3rd and 5th. It's more like 2-4 with Gorman. I know Matthew Liberatore could be in that group but I'm just not as high on him.

I totally agree Walker would headline it but I also believe you make the Nationals counter with Walker in the deal. You just don't give him away.

You do just give him away, because hes a prospect and there are 5 other teams out there in a playoff race with a better offer to be made than Walker already. If you aren't entering the negotiations with your best then you aren't even starting a conversation.

It's not like the Nationals are offering Juan Soto with three years of control either. They're reportedly making a team take on Patrick Corbin and eat the $59 million and change owed to him in 2023-24.

On top of that, you have to make an extension with Soto, who is represented by Scott Boras and almost never does an extension before FA.

And the reports saying that the Nationals are going to ask a team to take on Corbin are also saying the ask will also include a teams top 4 prospects. So good luck with your MLB The Show trade.

The ****ing #1 prospect in baseball is on the ****ing table for Juan Soto.

It's not an MLB The Show trade because you already underrated Winn and Burleson compared to the way the industry sees them.