Originally Posted by KC_Connection
(Post 16228486)
For the second time in the Self era, KU will play Villanova in the NCAA Tournament F4. It didn't end well the first time in 2018 as Villanova's athletes and five out/NBA style exploited a more traditional KU roster construction with center Udoka Azubuike struggling to cover the perimeter. Unfortunately for us, Villanova problematically plays the same five out/NBA style of basketball against a similarly structured KU roster centered around McCormack at the 5. As you'll recognize below, this has the potential to be an absolute matchup nightmare once again.
Villanova is one of the best offensive teams in the country and quite possibly the best offensive team KU has played all season (9th in adjusted offensive efficiency). Their efficiency is largely a product of their shot profile (they shoot threes on 46.1% of their field goal attempts, 20th in the NCAA), not turning the ball over (29th in turnover rate), and the highest team FT% in NCAA history (83%). They are likely the most analytically inclined program in the NCAA and like most/all NBA teams these days they look to get layups/get to the line or kick out to 3PT shooters every possession. Under Jay Wright (arguably top 5 coach in all of NCAA/NBA basketball), they are an incredibly disciplined and well coached team who value the ball, space the floor and take high efficiency shots at all times. Regardless of their personnel, with this style, they are incredibly difficult for any team to defend. They also purposely play the game at a snail's pace (345th tempo in the country) to limit their opponents' transition opportunities. As noted previously with Miami, limiting transition is especially important against a team in KU whose major strength is exactly that.
Villanova is also at their best when they are playing five switchable guards/wing types. The loss of Justin Moore makes that a bit more difficult for them, but Moore was Villanova's least efficient offensive player among their top 6 rotation players. No shots for him may simply mean more shots for more efficient players like Collin Gillespie (one of the best players in college basketball who shoots 41% from three) or Caleb Daniels (38% from three). Villanova also plays a 6'8 big (Eric Dixon) for much of the game who is the best shooter on the team (shooting 52% from three). He hasn't taken many of those shots this year (just 33), but without Moore he may be more inclined to take more. This spacing/three point shooting could be a serious issue for KU with McCormack stuck in the paint on defense. Will Self have to adjust and play Wilson at the 5 to address this during certain portions of the game? He may have to.
In addition to their effective offense, Villanova is also one of the best defensive teams in the country (17th in adjusted defensive efficiency) due to their ability to switch at all five positions. They have no major shot blocker, but they are so cohesive at that end and all five of their players are so adept at guarding one-on-one that they significantly limit any good shot opportunities. And as mentioned, their tempo is so slow that they allow almost no easy transition baskets.
Overall, Villanova is just a very solid, efficient, smart basketball team that poses matchup issues for more traditional lineups. While they may not have quite the talent the 2018 team did, you could not draw up a style more difficult for this particular KU team to deal with. KU will need to play easily their best game of the tournament to win. Better be ready.
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