THIS. I'm flummoxed that SMART baseball guys on here don't see this.

Josh Vernier and Ron Hugely were talking about this planted rumor earlier...and predictably, Vernier was the voice of reason while Ron says get rid of Kennedy at any cost. Ron is carrying your water guys. RON HUGELY. Let that sink in.

The Royals do a lot of things that make me think this next rebuild is going to be a disaster and Dayton Moore is a lucky SOB who's luck wore off.

It's because Wentz is a good prospect, a year later and the offer will likely be worse.

Well...this is consistent, then. That's you're conviction, then cool. But don't act like 29 other executives and owners would do this deal and we happen to have the one tandem that won't. When it's your 20 million, you can make that decision. Ultimately....we can compare notes when Wentz is a world beater in 5 years for the Tigers or mediocre to washed-out of baseball. Pitching "prospects", after all...

Pure speculation. You literally have no way of predicting this...especially when you're talking pitching prospects.

It doesn't even matter if he doesn't turn into a good MLB player. The bottom line is that there is a chance that he can and there's no chance that Ian Kennedy is going to mean a damn thing in the grand scheme of Royals baseball through 2020.

It's the same reason I ****ing hated the Cubs trading Jorge Soler for Wade Davis.

Uhh, that's not the right question. The Royals have a $20 million dollar liability. For that $20 million, the can keep Kennedy and hope to contend next year, they can trade him next year, or they could have flipped him for Wentz. Cutting Kennedy and saving $20 million is not an option so the premise of your question is flawed.

In terms of making the playoffs? Of course not. I'm interested in the continued development of our starters and stabilizing of the bullpen beginning with 2020. If you don't believe Kennedy is a plus in that...or don't care about stabilizing the bullpen or just think we have an equal to better chance stabilizing for less money without Kennedy for at least half of a season...then OK.

29 other? I don’t know. But a lot of teams eat money to move players and improve their return. It’s a good way to acquire young talent, which is harder to do than ever due to the hard slots in the amateur draft and IFA.

Ron Hughley isn’t carrying the water on this. Jeff Passan is. If amateurs were actually paid like what they’re worth on their initial contracts, acquisition costs of amateur talent would be drastically higher. Passan stuck a $40 million estimate on Witt and Rutschman when asked, so $24 for a guy like Wentz is right in line with that (if it even was that much).

As far as return on that value, even if Wentz only ends up becoming a solid reliever for KC, all it needs to get out of him to break even on the cost here is 3-4 wins above replacement. 6.75 years of solid reliever easily tops that.

Wentz doesn’t have to reach his upside (good No. 3 starter) to make that deal a sound financial decision, long-term.

Wentz would slot in around Kris Bubic in terms of prospect rankings, possibly higher. This is a legit guy and I can’t see a team offering more without the pressure of playoff availability. Reliever prices are usually best at the trade deadline.

Guess I just dont understand why you care about "stabilizing" a bullpen that ultimately doesn't matter today, tomorrow, or next year.

I'll tell ya, Viloria has a pretty nice arm. He's thrown some real accurate darts to 2nd base.

Which ones, do you think, would NOT make that deal?

I'd make that deal 8 days a week.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Just had a conversation with a source I trust with 100% confidence. Sounds like the the Royals had agreed to trade Ian Kennedy to Atlanta for Joey Wentz. Wentz apparently may have even known about it. Glass refused to eat the money necessary on Kennedy’s contract. So that sucks.</p>&mdash; Royals Farm Report (@RoyalsFarm) <a href="https://twitter.com/RoyalsFarm/status/1161317269038931968?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 13, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

****in Glass

:facepalm:

Major League history on this call.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Not. Even. Close. A brutal called strike 3 by umpire Marty Foster in the 9th of a tight ball game to <a href="https://twitter.com/tonykemp?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@tonykemp</a>. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cubs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Cubs</a> v <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Phillies?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Phillies</a> <a href="https://t.co/RgffQs65vg">https://t.co/RgffQs65vg</a> <a href="https://t.co/PZnvBNh0wP">pic.twitter.com/PZnvBNh0wP</a></p>&mdash; Umpire Auditor (@UmpireAuditor) <a href="https://twitter.com/UmpireAuditor/status/1161462887673503744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 14, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">According to <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNStatsInfo</a> the strike 3 call on Kemp in the 9th inning had a 0.00 percent chance of being called a strike. (Based on history of that pitch)</p>&mdash; Jesse Rogers (@ESPNChiCubs) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/status/1161464089622847488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 14, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Is Keller that good of a pitcher or does our offense just suck that bad?

Keller has been very good since about the beginning of July. He has good stuff.

That's too bad for Keller. But there's no way he was going to finish the game and probably no way the bullpen was going to hold a no-hitter.

This team! :rolleyes:

That was a very Royals inning.

Wait for it, wait for it...............


They're trying too hard...

Royals season in a nutshell tonight. Enough very good with enough bad to equal a loss.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Royals?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Royals</a>’ No. 2 prospect Brady Singer tossed his best outing of the year tonight for <a href="https://twitter.com/nwanaturals?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@nwanaturals</a>:<br><br>7 IP<br>4 H<br>0 R<br>1 BB<br>9 K<br><br>See where he ranks on the Top 100 Prospects list: <a href="https://t.co/aG46Y0calQ">https://t.co/aG46Y0calQ</a> <a href="https://t.co/89kL6Kl5E3">pic.twitter.com/89kL6Kl5E3</a></p>&mdash; MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1161829618644639747?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 15, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I’m hunting for video of it. I want to see if his turn at AA has come with finding success with a change up or something similar.

yeah, he was pitching great, just ran out of gas.

Alex is 4-51 stretch. He does have 2 gidp and 1 CS at least

What? Are you suggesting that 4/51 isn't worth $20,000,000? The guy is, was, and will be forever over-rated.

Wat? He was literally one of the most valuable players in baseball in 2014.

Say what you will about 2016-now, but he straight up dominated from 2011-2015.

I tried to tell CP this dude wasn’t coming back, but of course they wanted to go 3/46 on him. Sheesh Louise

His 4 years WAR under his new deal.

0.6
-0.1
1.7
0.7


Not even 3 wins. Yeah, he’s been so bad since the ASB he’s almost a replacement player this year now.

I thought you were done with fWAR?

Gordon’s contract is underwater and not coming out. It’s unfortunate.

His second half collapse makes me think he’s going to retire.

More interesting topics:

Bubic dominating again tonight (hitless thru 5)
Brett Phillips not in lineup for Omaha

BRETT PHILLIPS NOT IN LINEUP FOR OMAHA

Any luck getting your Brady Singer/change up question answered?

Final line for Bubic:
Complete game shutout
1 hit (bloop single in 9th)
1 BB
11 K

He leads the minor leagues in strikeouts

Beginning to think that in five years, we might all feel silly for ever having thought Bubic was not the best of this bunch...

All I’m saying is, Alex was #4 in fWar(only cause I have sortable data) on April 15 with 1.0


Which means he’s been below replacement after the first 3 weeks. You’re right he is retiring

Bubic's last 7 starts:

47.2 IP, 1.13 ERA, 26 H, 9 BB, 60 K

ChiefsCountry people who wanted to trade our vets were stupid

Gordon has 10/5 rights so he can veto any trade he wants. Of course you are only here to troll so it really doesn't matter.

Have you gotten tested for Chlamydia yet?

Bubic is pitching like a TOR guy. He looks like KCs best pitcher right now. Hopefully he gets promoted soon to AA. How high could he get on prospect rankings this Winter? Top 50?

Anybody read Rany's piece on the Royals young pitching? At this point, it sounds like we've somehow bucked our trend vis-a-vis pitching development (by drafting college arms).

I’d prefer a NYY or BOS guy.

I don’t think so. His stuff isn’t loud enough. Extremely effective guys without premium fastball velo are going to slot 75-150.

Stillvery exciting results. The k rate especially.

Bubic feels like a sure thing. The most sure thing to be a useful starter at the MLB level. Maybe not the top shelf potential that some of the other guys have, though.

Duffy and Perez should have been traded now you got 2 broke dicks wasting roster spots with large contracts. Of course they needed to keep Salvy so they could maintain being 28th in attendance LMAO but but attendance is low because it's a school night, weather, etc.

I appreciate your position Mr Chiefspants, I simply disagree. In my mind, Gordon has had 2 really nice years out of 13 years in the majors (2011, 2012). I mean, if you can't hit .270, you ain't exactly dominating in my book (ok, he did hit .271 in 2015). I will also grant you that up until this year he has been an outstanding left fielder from a defensive perspective.

I simply have him pegged as a decent major league player, yet he is treated (and paid) as if he is a Hall of Famer. I don't get it. Oh well, as Duncan suggests, let's move on to more important matters.......

Do you think batting average is the primary means of offensive effectiveness? If not, how much do you value advanced statistics?

He's Patient Zero.

*** Official 2019 Kansas City Royals Repository ***
 

Position players who were more valuable than Alex Gordon, 2011-15:
Mike Trout
Andrew McCutchen
Buster Posey
Miggy
Lucroy (bullshit framing metrics)
Adrian Beltre
Robby Cano
Bautista
Yadier Molina (bullshit framing metrics)
Votto

:fin:

Stop valuing batting average above all else. It’s an antiquated way of looking at quality of contribution and also inaccurate.

Gordon was not a superstar offensive performer outside of 2011 and 2012, but he was a superstar all-around player.

He’s not an MLB hall of famer (he would have 10 years of the quality of 2011-15, not 5), but he’s a Royals hall of famer, easily.

Keep beating that drum.

They listened on Duffy after 2017 and didn’t get anything reasonable offered.

It’s easy to say “trade a guy for prospects!” If you take the time to look at trades that offseason, there are not really any comparable. Gerrit Cole got shipped to the Astros for an uninspiring package headlined by Colin Moran and Joe Musgrove.

And it’s a stretch to suggest Duffy’s value was the same as Cole’s. It was not.

C'mon man. Our guys are always more valuable than their guys. Whoever heard of Gerrit Cole anyway.

Duffy will be 34 before this team contends and by then his arm will be shot. The real value is getting rid of his contract allowing you to also complete trades like Kennedy for Wentz and of course improve your draft position by tanking. Of course trimming the payroll also helps for as they move closer to competing being able to sign some free agents.

There is literally zero value to having Duffy on this team.

They didn’t commit to a full tank job. I won’t argue with you on that.

Weird that in 2019, there are Royals fans UPSET KC did not commit to a full tank. Amazing what a good 5-year run will do to change hearts and minds.

Dude, you're now a Royals fan, right?

Your frequent analysis in this thread would make so much more sense.

20 million a year is not getting paid like a hall of famer. It's above average salary in the sport. Gordon is tied for #35 in the MLB on salary this year. Of course you also use BA to try to prove a point, which shows your baseball knowledge is lacking.

How is that lacking? Hes just trying to say that Gordon is a average to sometimes below average MLB hitter.

Sure, there are a ton of other metrics, like his defense to help make up for it, but hes just an average hitter over his entire career.

Gordon: 4 for his last 57

Cuthbert: 0 for his last 22

O'Hearn: 5 for his last 41

Bubba: 5 for his last 47

Lopez: 12 for his last 73

Arteaga: 6 for his last 45

(h/t David Lesky)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The number of performance-challenged bullpens has exploded. Only five teams have bullpen ERAs below 4 runs; four bullpens have ERAs in 5 to 6 range; two teams have bullpen ERAs over 6.</p>&mdash; Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1162315273128554496?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 16, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Oh how the mighty have fallen:

Greg Holland 4.54 ERA (released and signed MiL deal with Nats)
Wade Davis 6.06 ERA
Kelvin Herrera 7.08 ERA

Should walks factor into a players offensive production?

Chiefsplanet, let's hear your thoughts.

In 16 Plate Appearances..

Player 1 bats .231, had 3 hits, a home run, 2 singles, to go along with 2 RBI's, 3 walks, and 4 strikeouts.

Player 2 bats .333, had 5 hits, 4 singles, a double, to go along with 3 RBI, no walks, 1 strikeout and a sac fly.

We'll say both players have equal baserunning ability and defensive value.

Let's pretend this production stays consistent through the course of a season - who do you value more as an offensive player?

To be fair, he originally said the guy was overrated, which isn't true. He was very clearly underrated because for a 5 year stretch he was one of the best players in baseball, which is something most people would have never guessed.

On top of that, he had a few extremely important playoff moments, including basically winning us game 1 against the Orioles in the ALCS, the GW RBI in the big comeback against the Astros and of course the HR off Familia (who hadn't blown a save in the 2nd half of the season) against the Mets. He is one of the best players in the history of the Royals, but people only remember the last couple years because that's how it goes.

Bullpen arms are the most fickle thing in sports.

They were less fickle than most, with an incredible run over multiple years. But not even they could mow down Father Time.

I’ll take Player A all day, everyday. He’s helping me create more runs than the empty average hitter.


During that five year period, Gordon was neither average nor below average. He was 22 percent above average by runs created.

He had a bad start and is having a bad end, but for the five years of his prime, Gordon was an absolute star.

Just in case you were worried about Witt and his slow start...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">1st pro ��at Bobby Witt: impressive physique, dude off��. HR, 3B, busted 4.20 down the line (60). DH&#39;d. Will get him in the field soon. looks like, smells like a 60.<br><br>AZL top 50 coming to <a href="https://twitter.com/ProspectsLive?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ProspectsLive</a> : Luciano, Abrams, Witt likely top 3 in some order <a href="https://t.co/Q8gK9Vc9VM">pic.twitter.com/Q8gK9Vc9VM</a></p>&mdash; Jason Pennini (@JasonPennini) <a href="https://twitter.com/JasonPennini/status/1162393794534232065?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 16, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I want both.

Yeah, there are times you want a guy up there that's going to be a 3-true outcomes hitter; maybe he'll walk, maybe he'll K, maybe he'll get into one.

There are also times when you need someone who's gonna give you a different kind of AB.

The Cardinals kinda have shitty versions of both of those guys right now - one's Matt Carpenter and the other is Tommy Edman. The problem with the analysis is that I don't really want either of them on my team at the moment, but there are situations where Edman's more aggressive, contact oriented approach will serve me better.

Now if I could only have one (I'm guessing as a starter?) and the rest of my team is competently constructed w/ fairly complementary parts, then I"d take Player A - yes. But I'm not going to dismiss the utility of Player B either. The problem with the Player A types is that we simply see too many of them that feast on bad pitchers and get carved up by quality guys. Meanwhile the Player B types tend to be more consistent against both.

If you have a roster full of Player A guys, you're gonna have issues in the post-season when you're facing quality pitchers night in, night out.

Video of Bobby Witt, Jr:
https://twitter.com/JasonPennini/sta...534232065?s=20

He hit his first pro HR last night and added a triple. This look also shows him nearly beating out a routine two-hopper to short in his last AB.

Fun with small samples: Witt’s is still so small, going 4/10 in his last two games with a 3B and HR has raised Witt’s OPS by .05 (.600-.653).

A repeat of that two-game stretch in his next 2 would get him up to .698

I want this ****er to be dominating Wilmington by this time next year. Is that too much to ask? Just once, I want to see the Royals get a generational talent out of high school who just rakes. Just once.

BTW - I purchased Wilmington Blue Rocks hat. And am in the process of buying all MiLB Royals Affiliate hats because I'm a ****ing nerd.

Asking any hitter to dominate at Wilmington is a big ask.

If he could make it to Wilmington next year and put up a .700-.750 OPS I would consider it a win.

The Blue Rocks hats are sweet.

**cough** Cubs **cough**

More fun Twitter stuff:

Keller has been working on a splitter and is starting to incorporate it/feel more comfortable with it. If he can develop that into a legit, bat-missing out pitch, he's going to give lefties just as much trouble as he gives righties.

Hey, Brady Singer. You watching?

If Singer continues to struggle with his changeup - which I expect him to do, given the arm slot - I'd love to see him try the splitter out. From experience, that low 3-quarters arm angle can be a tough one to consistently throw a changeup from (old Duncan Idaho was a low 3/4, fastball, cutter/slider guy himself, who never could quite find a changeup that worked).

Here's a better option. Cut bait and get the **** out of that shitty ballpark/environment.

Throw him in with Duffy in a trade to get some real talented prospects back.

Lol. He meant to get a new affiliate not to trade Witt Jr.

*** Official 2019 Kansas City Royals Repository ***
 

Brett Phillips could be on his way to KC.

https://medium.com/@david.lesky/frid...19-2da4f107353

And there it is.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We have recalled OF Brett Phillips from Omaha and designated OF Billy Hamilton for assignment. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Royals?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Royals</a></p>&mdash; Kansas City Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/1162446758968025088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 16, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Happens to someone every year.

Kinda think we'll see the Yankees fall victim to it this year but they've put a few guys on that roster like Gregorious and Torres that take tougher ABs. Hicks is is out for the rest of the year, IIRC, but he'd have qualified, Gardner still does.

Guys like that can form the core of a nice offense but you need complementary parts around them as well. It's what makes the Astros so damn dangerous - they have guys like Brantley, Bregman and Altuve that will wear you down around their Springer, Correa and now Alvarez types.

Interestingly the only team to do a 'ideal type' for either of those players WAS the Royals and they won consecutive pennants and a championship by having almost exclusively type B players....and of course a ridiculous bullpen.

Hard to stay on top of a splitter from a low 3/4 as well, though. I'd worry you'll frisbee a lot of those and those just become backed up BP fastballs, especially to like-handed hitters.

I would think that if you have the dexterity and long enough fingers to throw an effective splitter at 3/4, you'd be able to throw the change as well. And the fading action on a change would seem to work better, even from 3/4, than the dive on a splitter. You'd have a better velocity difference as well.

I'm not sure that a splitter does much to alter your arsenal if used in lieu of the change. You're still not doing much to change timing with it. At that point you may be best served to just mix up your fastball usage/location and make sure you can get your slider to both sides of the plate effectively. You lean into the 'power pitcher' mentality and just try to get off-handed hitters inside conscious. Maybe as a right you attack lefties from the 1b side of the rubber and get in their kitchen better?

If we're on the subject of dorking it up over pitching, have you read Kepner's book? Easy, interesting read.

There's a pretty decent correlation between making contact and having success. Those Royals teams were truly one of the best contact hitting groups ever... relative to the rest of baseball. They had the fewest strikeouts in the league by a mile.

Funny enough, a couple years after the Royals knocked the Astros out, Houston totally did a 180 in their philosophy and put an emphasis on contact. In 2015 when they lost to KC they had the 2nd most strikeouts in the league. Two years later they won the World Series and (like the Royals) had the fewest K's in the league. That's a crazy shift considering it was pretty much the same group of star players.

Same thing is happening this year. The Astros are in 1st and have the fewest strikeouts by a pretty good margin.

And outstanding defense.

That’s why Luhnow and his crew are the best in the business. They saw the value of that grind it out approach in playoff time and overmade their complementary players to better fit it.

They are good at everything. Almost unfair.

That’s a good point re: fingers. I do think it would differentiate again between the fastball and slider because the split is going to have fastball spin with a different velocity band than either of the other two pitches, and it should have more drop than a slider sling 3/4ers.

I’ll check the book out.