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-   -   Chiefs Post here if you were an idiot who thought we needed to run the ball more. (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=340815)

DJ's left nut 11-15-2021 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThyKingdomCome15 (Post 15956741)
Lol, establishing the running game set up a number of those big pass play's. We even ran some RPO's and the D actually bit on the fake. So if you wanted to run more, you were right. If you wanted to pass more, you were also right. It takes a balanced attack to keep the defense honest. So don't knock the running game.

This simply isn't correct.

Running the ball 15 times/gm has almost an identical impact on the PA passing game as running it 30 times. The study from Marcellus demonstrates it pretty clearly but there have been literally dozens of them in the past few years.

It takes very VERY little focus on the running game to 'set up' big pass plays. And despite all the hand-wringing, the Chiefs have routinely run the ball the 20-25 times/gm they ran it last night.

There is a threshold level you have to run it for the play action game to be impacted - it's something along the lines of 12-15 times/gm. And the returns diminish significantly once you hit that threshold level.

You do not 'establish the run' to set up the pass in this league. Haven't in over a decade.

Sassy Squatch 11-15-2021 09:31 AM

I'd really like to know who the stubborn ****er was that kept calling edge runs to the right. Jesus Christ that was starting to get infuriating.

Sassy Squatch 11-15-2021 09:33 AM

Also wonder if Pat was on Cocaine last night. Dude was ****ing wired in compared to this last month of shit. Don't remember much if at all of those plays where he just holds the ball then does something really stupid in panic/desperation. Quick, accurate, and decisive.

Marcellus 11-15-2021 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 15956720)
I don't think that study says exactly what you think it says, and it partially proves my point-success running the ball doesn't really matter all that much in relation to play-action passing. But you still have to do it some. You have to make the defense honor that fact that you MIGHT run the ball.

The study shows that teams that rarely ran the ball ( not at all in the previous 8-10 plays) were less successful in play-action passing.

So the 'never run the ball ever, just throw' crowd are missing the point too.

What that study is looking at is how effective running games are in relation to play-action passing, and how much do you have to run? The answers are: you don't have to be great at it, but you do have to do it enough to be a threat to do it.

That's totally in line with what I've been saying. Other people may have been wanting to go full on Barry Word style Martyball, but that's not me, unless you're talking about eating clock late in the game sitting on a large lead.

The main takeaway from the article is that neither frequency of running the ball nor effectiveness impact PA passing success which is absolutely what you claimed earlier. Its simply not true.

KC has had the most prolific offense in football for 3+ years while running it around 25-30% of the time.

The idea this needs to change is insane.

St. Patty's Fire 11-15-2021 09:36 AM

Still wanna start slowly working in more power run game concepts into the offense instead of running outside zone with offensive lineman who are objectively a better fit for a power run game. Acting like power formations would neuter the offense’s ability is silly, but up Clays alley.

Hammock Parties 11-15-2021 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by St. Patty's Fire (Post 15956758)
Acting like power formations would neuter the offense’s ability is silly, but up Clays alley.

WOULD YOU LIKE TO KNOW OUR YPC UNDER CENTER?

Sassy Squatch 11-15-2021 09:40 AM

If Mahomes and Gray continue to gel nicely then PA out of 12 personnel will be ****ing deadly. Teams will get taped for stacking the box when Mahomes goes under center.

DJ's left nut 11-15-2021 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus (Post 15956754)
The main takeaway from the article is that neither frequency of running the ball nor effectiveness impact PA passing success which is absolutely what you claimed earlier. Its simply not true.

KC has had the most prolific offense in football for 3+ years while running it around 25-30% of the time.

The idea this needs to change is insane.

I would've hoped beating Wallcrawler and the rest of the crew over the head with this 2 years ago would've had some effect. Evidently not.

It's really not open for discussion to anyone that's bothered to dig into it. There may be some unique team by team examples where there could be some larger, more direct relationship, but the Chiefs and their mediocre RBs and damn effective pass-catchers most assuredly wouldn't be one of them.

This team is NOT going to scare teams into cheating run. They'll continue to run enough to get that same hesitancy over 15 carries that they'd get over 30 and they'll continue to use the underneath passing game to set up the deep passing game. Why? Because Andy Reid is smart and it's the smart thing to do.

Oh, and for the 'why weren't we throwing underneath the last 5 weeks?!?!?' crowd - please go look at Mahomes passing charts via nextgen stats. We were.

He was slumping guys, he was missing shots, clutching and hesitating on makeable windows and feeling phantom pressure. That's all there is to this.

Keep firing, Patrick. Go be you - the baddest mother****er on the planet.

Sassy Squatch 11-15-2021 09:44 AM

Also helps a bunch when Hardman, Pringle, and Robinson do their jobs competently without the dumb shit that led to us turning the ball over 19 times total.

Hammock Parties 11-15-2021 09:45 AM

rUn ThE bALl

3 3:38 3-2 LVR 49 Patrick Mahomes pass complete deep left to Tyreek Hill for 32 yards

4 9:09 3-2 KAN 45 Patrick Mahomes pass complete short middle to Travis Kelce for 30 yards

62 yards on two plays that led to touchdowns where Chief fan wanted buttsex

Meatloaf 11-15-2021 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Superturtle (Post 15956753)
Also wonder if Pat was on Cocaine last night. Dude was ****ing wired in compared to this last month of shit. Don't remember much if at all of those plays where he just holds the ball then does something really stupid in panic/desperation. Quick, accurate, and decisive.

Yup, I thought Mahomes finally looked “calm” out there. In prior games he seemed a bit too amped up. Trying to make things happen before the ball was even snapped! As you stated, Turtle, he looked very quick and decisive in his play. He was a bit “off” on his long throws, but you could just see him begin to dial those in too.

BTW, Darrell Williams tremendous catch in the endzone just shows how much we miss a guy who can go up and battle for a ball. Tyreek high points well, but he is just too short to consistently win those battles. We could really use that skillset in this offense. I still have hopes for J Gordon; clearly he’s showing the effects of not playing in awhile and in not having a pre-season to get his timing and communication down with Patrick. Of course, he could also be over the hill; I’m just hoping he still has something left in the tank — we may not know until next year.

Dayze 11-15-2021 09:46 AM

as others have probably mentioned, I don't think running the ball is going to get opposing defenses to put another guy in the box; they're absolutely going to hang back and not get hammered over the top.

what will get them to get out of that 2 high look is executing long methodical drives that lead to points and a defense that can force a few punts. eventually Chiefs are up by 10-14 or more points. opposing defenses will have to come out of that look to try to end drives and get the ball back.

last nights game is exactly the formula the Chiefs need to do to counter other teams' 'formula' in beating Mahomes. Be patient, take what's given, limit penalties (offensively and defensively not extending opponents drives via penalty) and don't turn over the ball. Literally, focus on executing the play at hand, and metriculate.



IMO

BWillie 11-15-2021 09:49 AM

I've said it before and I'll say it again - there is almost no reason to ever run the ball on 1st down or 2nd and over 5. You are just giving away expected yards and points. Run the ball on those downs when you are up by multiple scores in the second half, yeah sure fine but early in the game pass every time in those situations.

Our short passing game keeps the defense more honest than running the ball up the middle.

DJ's left nut 11-15-2021 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie (Post 15956776)
I've said it before and I'll say it again - there is almost no reason to ever run the ball on 1st down or 2nd and over 5. You are just giving away expected yards and points. Run the ball on those downs when you are up by multiple scores in the second half, yeah sure fine but early in the game pass every time in those situations.

Our short passing game keeps the defense more honest than running the ball up the middle.

I like occasionally running the ball on 2nd and long.

3rd and 10 is a hell of a lot harder than 3rd and 6. You can do whip routes and arrow routes and quick slants or comebacks to the TE that are easy 5-7 yard plays but those aren't really viable for 10 yards.

I hate almost every 1st down run but you do have to do it on occasion as a tendency breaker. On 2nd down and 10, however, I think most defenses are expecting pass so you probably have a nice chance to pick up 4-5 yards and set up a much broader playbook for 3rd down.

Chris Meck 11-15-2021 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 15956732)
Yeah, the Raiders were pretty hard-headed.

They were still playing a lot of Cover 3 (the original "Mahomes Killer") and there's a that cover 3 can do to mess up those deep passes as well. But they were playing a cover 3 with Jonathan Abram who...sucks.

That said, the confidence that Mahomes was playing with last night was completely unlike anything we've seen out of him since the Ravens game. He was back to his old self.

So while the Raiders defense in some ways made things easier, the Titans defense wasn't exactly playing well out there, Mahomes was just missing. He was in a slump. He appears on his way to pulling out of it.

No, the answer is not running the ball 30 times a game. The Chiefs used the passing game to establish a lead and then took the air out of the ball late. They worked the underneath routes (those short crossers finally came back out again) to draw the safeties down and made the Raiders pay anytime the tried to cheat on them.

They handed the ball to the RB 20 times on the day (for the record, FAR too many of those were off tackle right on 1st down), 8 of those came after they'd established a double digit lead late in the 3rd and into the 4th.

It was EXACTLY how they need to operate moving forward. They're not a power running team with an elite quarterback. They shouldn't try to be. They're an elite passing offense with the ability to use their interior line to win situational reps. Their quarterback hit the first slump of his career and battled his way out the other side.

This is what they do and this is what they should be. Anyone trying to claim some level of vindication for a gameplan that featured 20 handoffs and 5 touchdown passes as proof that running the football was how the Chiefs needed to win simply wasn't paying attention.

Well said.

DJ's left nut 11-15-2021 10:04 AM

By the way - THIS is how the Chiefs will draw safeties down:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FENU_1AU...jpg&name=small

One catch all night made 15 yards downfield and he went for 120 yards.

Safeties play us 15-18 yards deep at the snap and are bailing immediately. You keep hitting Kelce underneath and they're going to stop doing that. You don't 'establish the run' - you establish Travis Kelce.

That's how you'll keep those deep shots open.

IowaHawkeyeChief 11-15-2021 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by St. Patty's Fire (Post 15956758)
Still wanna start slowly working in more power run game concepts into the offense instead of running outside zone with offensive lineman who are objectively a better fit for a power run game. Acting like power formations would neuter the offense’s ability is silly, but up Clays alley.

I don't mind a few outside runs, particularly early in the game. I would prefer to do it with Jet sweeps, but that keeps those edge rushers honest and they can't turn it loose as much as they want...

IowaHawkeyeChief 11-15-2021 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties (Post 15956772)
rUn ThE bALl

3 3:38 3-2 LVR 49 Patrick Mahomes pass complete deep left to Tyreek Hill for 32 yards

4 9:09 3-2 KAN 45 Patrick Mahomes pass complete short middle to Travis Kelce for 30 yards

62 yards on two plays that led to touchdowns where Chief fan wanted buttsex

This is what we should have been doing all year. On those plays they had the safeties down and stacked the box. We still need to run the ball against 6 in the box or have the short passes to the RB and Kelce we did last night.

DJ's left nut 11-15-2021 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief (Post 15956800)
This is what we should have been doing all year. On those plays they had the safeties down and stacked the box. We still need to run the ball against 6 in the box or have the short passes to the RB and Kelce we did last night.

If Hardman did nothing but run short crossers for the rest of the year, he'd provide plenty of value.

Teams can/will counter Kelce by bracketing him. You can do that and still maintain a little bit of a 2 high look. But you can't do that if you also have to account for Hardman streaking over the middle because he'll manage to lose anyone that's trying to hang with him and if you have him going the opposite direction of Kelce, you force a decision point for that safety looking to bracket Kelce.

It won't work every time, but it'll work plenty often and if Hardman gets that ball in full stride, he's going to have an angle on anyone trying to cover him.

IowaHawkeyeChief 11-15-2021 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 15956802)
If Hardman did nothing but run short crossers for the rest of the year, he'd provide plenty of value.

Teams can/will counter Kelce by bracketing him. You can do that and still maintain a little bit of a 2 high look. But you can't do that if you also have to account for Hardman streaking over the middle because he'll manage to lose anyone that's trying to hang with him and if you have him going the opposite direction of Kelce, you force a decision point for that safety looking to bracket Kelce.

It won't work every time, but it'll work plenty often and if Hardman gets that ball in full stride, he's going to have an angle on anyone trying to cover him.

I also like good old fashioned half boot floods against the 2 high look, we have done a few of these but not consistently.

BWillie 11-15-2021 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 15956802)
If Hardman did nothing but run short crossers for the rest of the year, he'd provide plenty of value.

Teams can/will counter Kelce by bracketing him. You can do that and still maintain a little bit of a 2 high look. But you can't do that if you also have to account for Hardman streaking over the middle because he'll manage to lose anyone that's trying to hang with him and if you have him going the opposite direction of Kelce, you force a decision point for that safety looking to bracket Kelce.

It won't work every time, but it'll work plenty often and if Hardman gets that ball in full stride, he's going to have an angle on anyone trying to cover him.

:clap:

morphius 11-15-2021 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 15956794)
By the way - THIS is how the Chiefs will draw safeties down:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FENU_1AU...jpg&name=small

One catch all night made 15 yards downfield and he went for 120 yards.

Safeties play us 15-18 yards deep at the snap and are bailing immediately. You keep hitting Kelce underneath and they're going to stop doing that. You don't 'establish the run' - you establish Travis Kelce.

That's how you'll keep those deep shots open.

I believe most teams have been dropping their LB's deep enough that the safeties don't need to come up.

Red Dawg 11-15-2021 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie (Post 15956776)
I've said it before and I'll say it again - there is almost no reason to ever run the ball on 1st down or 2nd and over 5. You are just giving away expected yards and points. Run the ball on those downs when you are up by multiple scores in the second half, yeah sure fine but early in the game pass every time in those situations.

Our short passing game keeps the defense more honest than running the ball up the middle.

Get out with non sense. Dynasty's are built on running the ball and playing defense with your elite QB moving the chains when needed. Not to run it is not sustainable. No reason to run on early downs is a nut ball strategy.

DJ's left nut 11-15-2021 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by morphius (Post 15956811)
I believe most teams have been dropping their LB's deep enough that the safeties don't need to come up.

Like I said - keep sending Hardman on those short crossers and tell those LBs they get to try to hang with him. At that point the LBs will serve no purpose but to get in the way of the CB that's trying to run with him.

Hammock Parties 11-15-2021 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Dawg (Post 15956820)
Dynasty's are built on running the ball

https://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1559794339845.jpg

ToxSocks 11-15-2021 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower (Post 15956149)
the passes that worked early were play action

reid did a great psyche job because everyone thought we were gonna run

so those play actions , screens and short passes to the flat worked

then when they blitzed, we torched them

Yup.

The TD to Pringle was an excellent example of the defense biting up hard on the play fake.

And he bit hard not because they "feared" the run, but because we had been taking the underneath stuff all night in all sorts of various forms.

Now, it's not any different than what the Chiefs have been doing all year. The difference is the Raiders defense didn't stay disciplined, which is required to for the "Mahomes Treatment" plan to work.

crayzkirk 11-15-2021 10:49 AM

I said the Chiefs needed to run the ball more; probably should have added that I would like to see Patrick under center more often as linebackers don't fall for the play action very often in the shotgun.

BWillie 11-15-2021 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Dawg (Post 15956820)
Get out with non sense. Dynasty's are built on running the ball and playing defense with your elite QB moving the chains when needed. Not to run it is not sustainable. No reason to run on early downs is a nut ball strategy.

Translation? THE KEY TO FOOTBALL IS NOT TO SCORE POINTS

Herm Edwards, is that you?

mabbott 11-15-2021 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties (Post 15956212)
Don't need one. Our run pass ratio was the same it has been most of the year. You are too much of a dummy dum dum to realize it.

You are so wrong!!! Our run pass ratio has been at 35%, last night it was 30% had they run the ball 24 times versus 23 times, then it would have been 35%

You are welcome for my useless stats and sarcasm! ROFL

DJ's left nut 11-15-2021 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Detoxing (Post 15956844)
Yup.

The TD to Pringle was an excellent example of the defense biting up hard on the play fake.

And he bit hard not because they "feared" the run, but because we had been taking the underneath stuff all night in all sorts of various forms.

Now, it's not any different than what the Chiefs have been doing all year. The difference is the Raiders defense didn't stay disciplined, which is required to for the "Mahomes Treatment" plan to work.

It also demonstrated how infrequently a team has to actually run the football in order to get that 'bite'. Additionally, it shows when the defense is likely to bite up - late in the game with a large lead and a seemingly clear 'running situation'.

Again - yesterday was a perfect gameplan Run the ball a little early, pass the ball to generate a lead, run the ball to take the air out of the clock and IF you get a shot, take it to put your foot on their throat and end it.

morphius 11-15-2021 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 15956824)
Like I said - keep sending Hardman on those short crossers and tell those LBs they get to try to hang with him. At that point the LBs will serve no purpose but to get in the way of the CB that's trying to run with him.

I saw that after I posted, I like the idea.


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