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Deberg_1990 · 11-21-2017, 04:16 PM

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.

The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

Marcellus · 01-01-2018, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevieray

Because Reid is a DETAILS guy. He's not half assing anything.

Your second line is pure desire, nothing more. It's not even realistic. It's just a mantra the board has adopted.

Your stance is pure nostalgia and loyalty.

I have no idea what Reid being a details guy has to do with any of this.

They gave up not 1 but 2 1st round picks for a QB with a skill set very different than Smiths and he looks ready and is much cheaper not to mention Smith can bring a few picks.

How does this team improve next year with Smith at QB? Answer that for me.

Use logic not your heart.

OKchiefs · 01-01-2018, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Your stance is pure nostalgia and loyalty.

I have no idea what Reid being a details guy has to do with any of this.

They gave up not 1 but 2 1st round picks for a QB with a skill set very different than Smiths and he looks ready and is much cheaper not to mention Smith can bring a few picks.

How does this team improve next year with Smith at QB? Answer that for me.

Use logic not your heart.

This

Pueblo Chieftan · 01-01-2018, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

No idea where you get that, especially after yesterday.

There is literally no upside to keeping Smith next year minus a SB appearance.

That doesn't mean I dont appreciate what Smith has done, but come on, he is already the 2nd best QB on the roster.

Execution all around is probably the worst I’ve seen from this offense since Reid came to town. The struggles on offense are both Smith and the offense as a whole.. The OL has been inconsistent as well. I’m really hoping that Reid, Smith and Co can turn it around and start gelling again, but I don’t see it happening.

At the rate that the offense is currently playing there is no way with their current play that they will have a chance at getting past round 1.

IowaHawkeyeChief · 01-01-2018, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Detoxing

If i were the Chiefs i'd sell Smith while he's hot. I can't forsee him keeping this momentum up for another season. A losing skid like the one we saw earlier would most certainly result in a benching next season.

But im not holding my breath at this point. IMO, the odds are greater than not that Smith QB's this team next year. Even if only for half a season.

I agree with this if you can get a low one or a high 2, if not, reevaluate and look at the cost of a FA backup, if they are $9-10 million, you may be better off keeping Alex as the back up for $17m. However, if he wins the Superbowl or we make the AFC Championship game and offense does well, and we lose, Smith may be the starter next year.

penchief · 01-01-2018, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Northman

Then Veach better speak loud and clear to Reid: this franchise has poor draft capital and a poor situation heading into free agency. Moving Smith significantly improves both.

Better to part a year early than a year too late.

This is correct. Smith will be a 34 year old quarterback with known limitations coming off the best season of his career. He is just as likely to regress as he is to duplicate this season. The chiefs will have a better option ready to go. Sell high and count your blessings.

**The Franchise** · 01-01-2018, 03:50 PM

The biggest difference for me yesterday was on 3rd down. Mahomes was always looking past the sticks. Smith is always throwing short.

Hammock Parties · 01-01-2018, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

The biggest difference for me yesterday was on 3rd down. Mahomes was always looking past the sticks. Smith is always throwing short.

It was an amazing feeling yesterday to watch a QB escape the pocket and realize the play was not over.

IowaHawkeyeChief · 01-01-2018, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Your stance is pure nostalgia and loyalty.

I have no idea what Reid being a details guy has to do with any of this.

They gave up not 1 but 2 1st round picks for a QB with a skill set very different than Smiths and he looks ready and is much cheaper not to mention Smith can bring a few picks.

How does this team improve next year with Smith at QB? Answer that for me.

Use logic not your heart.

I agree...This year has been good for Mahommes, and barring an unbelievable playoff run by Alex, he will be the starter next year.

**Bowser** · 01-01-2018, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

The biggest difference for me yesterday was on 3rd down. Mahomes was always looking past the sticks. Smith is always throwing short.

Yes, this all day.

If there is one area where Mahomes is seemingly already better than Alex in, it's this right there. He's constantly looking down the field, not staring at the pass rush or throwing a four yard pass on 3rd and 9.

**Bowser** · 01-01-2018, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

It was an amazing feeling yesterday to watch a QB escape the pocket and realize the play was not over.

Did you listen to Mitch's calls? Even he gave up on a play or two when it looked like Mahomes was going to get sacked or throw it away. Made me chuckle a couple of times hearing the realization in his voice as he called the paly.

stevieray · 01-01-2018, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Your stance is pure nostalgia and loyalty.

..and I'll counter your stance is 20 years of the pit of misery and being shell shocked.

Listen, the guy showed great intangibles. That's awesome.

But he barely eeked by a Paxton Lynch led 5-10 Broncos.

Winning seasons.
Back to back division championships.
First playoff win in over 20 years.
Chance for the first playoff win @ home in almost 25 years.

I know this doesn't mean much to the board, but it does to Reid/Clark.

It's extremely hard to win in the NFL, regardless of how much people here downplay it.

**The Franchise** · 01-01-2018, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevieray

..and I'll counter your stance is 20 years of the pit of misery and being shell shocked.

Listen, the guy showed great intangibles. That's awesome.

But he barely eeked by a Paxton Lynch led 5-10 Broncos.

Winning seasons.
Back to back division championships.
First playoff win in over 20 years.
Chance for the first playoff win @ home in almost 25 years.

I know this doesn't mean much to the board, but it does to Reid/Clark.

It's extremely hard to win in the NFL, regardless of how much people here downplay it.

When was the last time that Smith got pulled when he was up by 14 points?

pugsnotdrugs19 · 01-01-2018, 03:56 PM

Goodness stevieray... your takes are unbearable. It's like you're genuinely afraid of good QB play.

And that stupid ****ing line about barely beating the 5-10 Broncos... GTFO. You know damn well it's never a game if Bray doesn't get put in. You also know we were playing backups.

stevieray · 01-01-2018, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

When was the last time that Smith got pulled when he was up by 14 points?

It was a meaningless game. If the division were on the line, 2pm wouldn't have even played.

listen, bottom line for me is , when they are ready to pull the trigger, I'm all for it.

..but I'm not going to waste time pining for something that is completely out of my control.

stevieray · 01-01-2018, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Goodness stevieray... your takes are unbearable.

....then don't read them.

11-21-2017, 04:16 PM
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Deberg_1990's Avatar Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx.	David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes" The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year. The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday. I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback. Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1). Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season. September: 92.0 October: 111.1 November: 63.5 Dec.-Jan.: 68.8 The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses. I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses. It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs
Posts: 66,914

01-01-2018, 03:50 PM	#456
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain The Franchise's Avatar Join Date: Dec 2006	The biggest difference for me yesterday was on 3rd down. Mahomes was always looking past the sticks. Smith is always throwing short.
Posts: 92,208

01-01-2018, 03:56 PM	#463
pugsnotdrugs19 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS pugsnotdrugs19's Avatar Join Date: Aug 2013	Goodness stevieray... your takes are unbearable. It's like you're genuinely afraid of good QB play. And that stupid ****ing line about barely beating the 5-10 Broncos... GTFO. You know damn well it's never a game if Bray doesn't get put in. You also know we were playing backups.
Posts: 26,378	1 0