Mock Draft 1-8-2020

[kccrow]

I'm borrowing Veach's wheelie-dealie panties for this one... It wasn't where I planned on going with this one, but sometimes you just have to roll with a fun one.

The Chiefs tag then trade Chris Jones and the 32nd overall pick to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the 14th and 45th (2nd round) overall picks (Net value approx 17th overall pick which is essentially the value KC gave Seattle for Frank Clark). I tried desperately to value Jones appropriately here and I think it's fair given his skill set. I think he has more value to a 3-4 team than a 4-3 team with his ability to provide such a quality pass rush from the defensive line in the odd front, but obviously he fits both well. Jones is a valuable asset, but the return on investment for players such as him is usually net negative. Keep the cap space and acquire value-contract players and draft picks.

The Bucs are in the unenvious position of not being in a position to replace Jameis Winston in the draft, might be a bit out of the range of getting one of the top offensive tackles, and should also miss out on Derrick Brown. With a somewhat deep offensive line draft, the Bucs should want to bolster the front of their 3-4 first, especially with Suh being a free agent and not the type of pass rush presence Jones is. By acquiring the Chiefs' first-round pick, they should be able to snag a competent tackle prospect at the bottom of the round while also adding Jones.

The Chiefs trade Sammy Watkins to the Dallas Cowboys for a 4th round selection. The Cowboys need more perimeter weapons immediately for Dak Prescott and hiring Mike McCarthy makes Watkins' skill set a very good fit.

Chiefs cuts:
SS D. Sorensen, OL C. Erving, P D. Colquitt, LB D. O'Daniel

Chiefs FA signings:
OC/G Graham Glasgow (DET) to a 4-year, $28.0 million deal (sim to B. Turner, Z. Fulton) with $9.0 million signing bonus - approx 6.0 m yr 1
- Glasgow isn't an All-Pro caliber player but he's rock-solid everywhere he lines up (all 3 interior spots).
QB B. Gabbert (TB) 2 yrs 4.0 m w/ 1.0 signing bonus (sim to R. Griffin, M. Barkley) - approx 1.7 m yr 1
- Reid brings in the former Missouri product in Gabbert to resurrect his confidence in college and turn him into a capable backup.
LB N. Kwiatkoski (CHI) 3 yrs 8.7 m w/ 2.6 signing bonus (sim to D. Wilson, C. Jones) - approx 2.1 m yr 1
- Every time Kwiatkoski steps on the field, he produces. Chiefs should give him a shot to be a starter, ala Damien Wilson.
SS D. Thompson (DAL) 2 yr 4.0 m w/ 1.0 signing bonus (sim to M. Thomas) - approx 1.5 m yr 1
- Assignment sound when he gets his shots on the field. Comes up to support the run especially well.
CB M. Alexander (MIN) 1 yr 2.0 m w/ 1.0 signing bonus (sim to M. Claiborne) - 2.0 m yr 1
- Alexander is excellent in run support and best operating from the slot. I don't know that a team will give him a long-term deal until he proves it with them given his ups and downs on the outside. He's worth a shot if he comes cheap, and I think he will.

Chiefs FA re-signings:
CB Bashaud Breeland 3-year $27.0 million deal (sim to P. Amukamara) with $10 million guaranteed, including a $3.0 million signing bonus and $3.0 first-year roster bonus - approx $8.0 m yr 1
- Breeland has proven to be a solid starting CB in this league and was that again for KC this year. There's no reason to think he should self-destruct at this point.
WR D. Robinson 2 yrs 7.0 m w/ 1.5 m signing bonus (sim to A. Hurns) - approx 3.1 m yr 1
- Robinson is effective here but probably shouldn't get a long-term deal. That said he'd ease the transition from Watkins' departure.
DT M. Pennel 1 yr 1.13 m, which includes a 90k signing bonus - count as 750k as vet cap benefit
- Pennel has been a significant benefit in run defense so keeping him around another year may be the right choice.
LB R. Ragland 2 yr 3.0 m w/ 800k signing bonus (sim to N. Dzubnar) - approx 1.5 m yr 1
- Ragland has been solid in a situational role as a run-stopping linebacker and can be a decent reserve so I see no issue in retaining him on a small deal.
TE B. Bell 1 yr 910k, which includes a 90k signing bonus - count as 750k as vet cap benefit
- The Chiefs will scrub the shit out of the TE pool but I don't see them making any significant signings. If it isn't Bell, it'll be some scrub.
WR M. Kemp 1 yr ERFA tender 660k
- Probably camp fodder when all is said and done but cheap re-sign.
LG A. Wylie 1 yr ERFA tender 660k
- Worth keeping around as a reserve G/T.
TE D. Yelder 1 yr ERFA tender 660k
- He hasn't shown much but he's cheap and he's young.
QB P. Mahomes exercise 5th year option at league year then sign to a 4 yr $152 m extension w/ $67 m guaranteed
- Chiefs take care of Mahomes in the offseason and reach an agreement to re-sign him long-term

Chiefs will likely make plenty of other transactions that have no real top-51 cap effect to sign guys to 1 year, vet minimum deals with less than 3 accrued seasons.

Draft:
Chiefs trade the 14th overall pick acquired from Tampa Bay and their own 2nd round selection to the New York Jets for the 11th overall pick and their 5th round selection.

1 (f/NYJ). DE Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State (6'5" 265)
Gross-Matos is one of the most complete edge defenders in this class with excellent ability to eat up ground off the snap and get to the QB but also solid ability to set the edge against the run. He uses his hands pretty well for a collegiate player and should only continue to get better. He does well to play outside his frame and make plays. Spags has always loved to have an excellent pass rush from the edge. Locking in a bookend to Frank Clark for 5 years on a rookie contract could give KC an excellent pass rush for the foreseeable future. If KC doesn't re-sign Ogbah, this is an obvious need position with Okafor and Kpass being reserve quality players and the latter in a contract year.

2 (f/TB). OC Jake Hansen, Oregon (6'5" 300)
The Chiefs' biggest interior failures seemed to be when Reiter missed or lost assignments and that just can't continue with a prolific QB like Mahomes that can carry this team for you. Securing the pivot has to be one of the top priorities for KC this offseason. Hansen is the type of athletic offensive lineman Reid likes in his zone scheme. He sets quickly in pass protection, can move well laterally, and has the ability to get out to the second level. He's not quite the mental processor that Matt Hennessy (Temple) is, but I think he's a better overall player.

3. LB Logan Wilson, Wyoming (6'2" 250)
Wilson looks like an NFL linebacker and looks to have great speed and quickness for his size. Wilson finished the year as PFF's top-rated linebacker for 2019 and it's easy to see why. He has been a tackling machine for Wyoming, but what's more impressive is that he's highly effective getting to the quarterback and performs extremely well in coverage, including 10 career interceptions. The better he runs the higher he'll go in the draft.

4 (f/DAL). CB Amik Robertson, Louisiana Tech (5'9" 183)
If Robertson was about 2 inches taller and played at a bigger program, he'd probably be in the conversation as a 1st round pick the way he plays. An absolutely fearless hitter for his size that just makes big-time plays in all facets of the game. Reminds me a bit of Mathieu with his demeanor. This kid could come in and lock down the slot and even play a little safety if needed. He's a player to keep an eye on where he grades out. I have him in the 4th because he may have limitations playing outside in the NFL.

4. RB James Robinson, Illinois State (5'10" 220)
The Chiefs' backfield has been a bit anemic since the loss of Kareem Hunt, so they really have to bolster it this offseason and provide better balance for Mahomes and Co. Robinson has good girth, power, and contact balance. Shows the burst to get to the outside and agility to make players miss in the open field. Reminds me a bit of Devin Singletary from a season ago. Solid receiver in limited opportunities but more productive there in 2018 than 2019. Shows outstanding vision and the ability to bounce off blocks and gain productive yardage.

5 (f/NYJ). WR Devin Duvernay, Texas (5'11" 210)
Duvernay could bring a lot of value in the slot on crossing routes, slants, and down the seams plus he has that extra gear in the short screen game and as a kick/punt returner. He needs a lot of route work, but that speed will help keep the wheels on this offensive freight train going. The plus is Duvernay has a solid catch radius and excellent hands, plus he runs like a running back with the ball in his hands creating huge run-after-catch opportunities. Reid could make use of the dynamic threat.

5. DT Josiah Coatney, Ole Miss (6'4" 325)
Letting Jones go means needing to refill the pipeline. Coatney is a thick defensive tackle in the mold of Nnadi and Saunders, and like both of them is quick off the ball and quick to disrupt the interior rushing lanes. He has enough to put some pressure on the QB but will never be a sack artist. Coatney has been outstanding in terms of tackle production over the past 3 seasons and maybe Ole Miss' most unheralded player.

Roster:
QB: P. Mahomes, B. Gabbert, K. Shurmur
RB: Dam. Williams, J. Robinson, Dar. Williams, D. Thompson
FB: Lovett
WR: Hill, Hardman, Robinson, Pringle, Duvernay, Kemp
TE: Kelce, Bell, Yelder
OL: Fisher, Glasgow, Hansen, Duvernay-Tardif, Schwartz, Rankin, Reiter, Wylie, Allegretti, Barton
DE: Clark, Gross-Matos, Okafor, Kpassagnon, Harris
DT: Nnadi, Saunders, Pennel, Speaks, Coatney
LB: Wilson, Kwiatkoski, Hitchens, Wilson, Ragland, Niemann
CB: Breeland, Ward, Alexander, Fenton, Robinson
S: Mathieu, Thornhill, Thompson, Watts
ST: Butker, Some UDFA Punter, Winchester.