David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[O.city]

They’re gonna tailor the offense to Mahomes next year as well.

It’ll be different

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

and this is a negative... I will take 2 Superbowl appearances and one win in the next 8 years...

Give Reid a year to work with this guy. Hopefully great things will come. I think if Alex starts to struggle you need to throw the kid into the fire.

[MahiMike]

Met some new Chiefs fans at the bar yesterday. They were a bit shocked at how good Mahomes was. I told them I was not surprised at all. I'd feel confident using the kid in the playoffs already.

[Ragged Robin]

Originally Posted by O.city

They’re gonna tailor the offense to Mahomes next year as well.

It’ll be different

Less deep throws then?

[ModSocks]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

Yes, it's unknown, but how anybody can compare where he was at in preseason to what he achieved yesterday and NOT think that Mahomes is on track to be a starting QB in 2018 is just being a stupid sourpuss.

Just as it was when the season started, it's not up to Mahomes, but Smith. If Smith gets the Chiefs to the AFCG, don't be shocked to see him return and Mahomes will ride yet another season.

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by MahiMike

Met some new Chiefs fans at the bar yesterday. They were a bit shocked at how good Mahomes was. I told them I was not surprised at all. I'd feel confident using the kid in the playoffs already.

The Chiefs will be in trouble if Mahomes has to play in your scenario, it may wreck him. It’s about getting him comfortable with the playbook, taking snaps from under center, etc.

It's too soon, though the future definitely looks bright.

[ModSocks]

Originally Posted by Ragged Robin

Less deep throws then?

Not what he meant at all.

One thing i took away from yesterday is how Denver sold out on the deep pass. Albert Wilson had a career day carving them up underneath. If Mahomes has that affect on D's, you can expect a complete philosophical shift on offense.

[ModSocks]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

The Chiefs will be in trouble if Mahomes has to play in your scenario, it may wreck him.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Just as it was when the season started, it's not up to Mahomes, but Smith. If Smith gets the Chiefs to the AFCG, don't be shocked to see him return and Mahomes will ride yet another season.

AFC Championship game? **** that noise. Smith should be gone unless he wins a Super Bowl. And even if he does that.....it’s his time to go.

[ModSocks]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

AFC Championship game? **** that noise. Smith should be gone unless he wins a Super Bowl. And even if he does that.....it’s his time to go.

Sure, but that's Reid's boy. I'm not sure that Reid views sitting Mahomes as a bad thing.

[Ragged Robin]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Not what he meant at all.

One thing i took away from yesterday is how Denver sold out on the deep pass. Albert Wilson had a career day carving them up underneath. If Mahomes has that affect on D's, you can expect a complete philosophical shift on offense.

They played coverage because they weren't worried about getting ran on by Anthony Sherman

[bigjosh]

Originally Posted by Ragged Robin

They played coverage because they weren't worried about getting ran on by Anthony Sherman

And how did that work out for them?

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Sure, but that's Reid's boy. I'm not sure that Reid views sitting Mahomes as a bad thing.

...he basically alluded to that yesterday.

[Molitoth]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Just as it was when the season started, it's not up to Mahomes, but Smith. If Smith gets the Chiefs to the AFCG, don't be shocked to see him return and Mahomes will ride yet another season.

Puke

[ModSocks]

Originally Posted by Ragged Robin

They played coverage because they weren't worried about getting ran on by Anthony Sherman

Coverage? You mean off coverage and allowed themselves to get cleared out underneath.

It's a complete change to how they handle Alex.