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Old 11-21-2017, 04:16 PM  
Deberg_1990 Deberg_1990 is offline
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David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs
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Old 12-30-2017, 02:21 PM   #331
Hammock Parties Hammock Parties is offline
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Originally Posted by jjchieffan View Post
Yet you throw out the first 6 weeks of the season entirely because Smith was on fire.
It would seem the first five weeks were very much a mirage, considering the decline to average since.
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Old 12-30-2017, 02:21 PM   #332
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the point is you can play your game for every QB in the league. Big Ben from weeks 3-9 was in the bottom 3rd of the league in every statistical category besides INT...LOL. like I said, Lies Damn Lies and Statistics.
It's true he was. That seems irrelevant now, no?

You want to be hot going into the playoffs. Big Ben is the hottest QB in the NFL right now. Alex is rather lukewarm.
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Old 12-30-2017, 02:29 PM   #333
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It's true he was. That seems irrelevant now, no?

You want to be hot going into the playoffs. Big Ben is the hottest QB in the NFL right now. Alex is rather lukewarm.
Alex's numbers are much better the past 4 weeks than they were during the slump. So wouldn't you say that he is getting hot at the right time too?
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Old 12-30-2017, 02:31 PM   #334
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Alex's numbers are much better the past 4 weeks than they were during the slump. So wouldn't you say that he is getting hot at the right time too?
He's 26th in TDs and 11th in QB rating in the last three games.

That's not hot.

The Jets game is an outlier.
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Old 12-30-2017, 02:32 PM   #335
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Originally Posted by Hammock Parties View Post
He's 26th in TDs and 11th in QB rating in the last three games.

That's not hot.

The Jets game is an outlier.
There you go throwing out the Jets game to make your point.
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Old 12-30-2017, 02:34 PM   #336
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These numbers look pretty hot to me. I refuse to let you throw out his best game in the past 4 to make your point.


TDs 7 - Tied for 7th
QB Rate - 4th
Total Pass Yds - 6th
YPA - 4th
Aypa - 3rd
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Old 12-30-2017, 02:36 PM   #337
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Originally Posted by Hammock Parties View Post
He's 26th in TDs and 11th in QB rating in the last three games.

That's not hot.

The Jets game is an outlier.
It's irrelevant IMO, barring an injury, no way they start Mahomes in the playoffs. The fan base wont tolerate anyone other than Mahomes starting in 2018. The die is set.
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Old 12-30-2017, 02:36 PM   #338
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Originally Posted by jjchieffan View Post
Alex's numbers are much better the past 4 weeks than they were during the slump. So wouldn't you say that he is getting hot at the right time too?
or more importantly, the Chiefs are getting hot at the right time. Smith has been doing what it takes to get solid wins.
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Old 12-30-2017, 02:36 PM   #339
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These numbers look pretty hot to me. I refuse to let you throw out his best game in the past 4 to make your point.


TDs 7 - Tied for 7th
QB Rate - 4th
Total Pass Yds - 6th
YPA - 4th
Aypa - 3rd
Again, too small a sample size, too greatly skewed by one game.
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Old 12-30-2017, 02:44 PM   #340
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Again, too small a sample size, too greatly skewed by one game.
Ok. You're right. We should look at the entire season. Oh. What do you know? Those numbers look pretty good.
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Old 12-30-2017, 02:45 PM   #341
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Again, too small a sample size, too greatly skewed by one game.
Last I checked, 4 games is more than 3(which is what you just cited). And it also coincides with when Nagy took over play calling. The Jets game is included for everyone that isn't an irrational hater.
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Old 12-30-2017, 02:47 PM   #342
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Ok. You're right. We should look at the entire season. Oh. What do you know? Those numbers look pretty good.
Too large a sample size. Especially when it's obvious to all that version of Alex Smith hasn't returned.
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Old 12-30-2017, 03:11 PM   #343
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Too large a sample size. Especially when it's obvious to all that version of Alex Smith hasn't returned.
and this is exactly why you have zero credibility
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Old 12-30-2017, 03:14 PM   #344
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and this is exactly why you have zero credibility
I think it's less credible to only focus on the one sample size that supports your position.

I've got the 3-game, 6-game and 8-game sample size supporting mine.

I guess you can hope and pray that outlier Alex returns, but that seems unlikely.

He seems more likely to give us an average game against the top defense in football.
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Old 12-30-2017, 03:30 PM   #345
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Too large a sample size. Especially when it's obvious to all that version of Alex Smith hasn't returned.
The ban can't start soon enough.
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