David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[TimBone]

Jesus. Was it really worth it to bump another Alex-related thread?

[hitchief]

Originally Posted by bigjosh

The most important quote in the whole article.

Agreed, like changing out Robinson for Wilson.

How about changing out the pass rushers or middle lb's or db's?

I'd be willing to bet that the unit that fairs the worst in the playoffs is the D. They have for sure during the season so why would it be any different in the playoffs?

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by TimBone

Jesus. Was it really worth it to bump another Alex-related thread?

He's your brother...

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

He's your brother...

That remark should be a bannable offense

[jjchieffan]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

15th rated QB in football over the last six weeks.

15th in TDs.

Carr was right.

Hmm. So you're saying that when Alex and the whole team was in a slump that he was still average? I'll take that. Despite his slump, he's still got some of the best quarterback numbers in the league this season. Tell us again how great Derek Carr is. Oh, and how's your man crush Geno Smith Faring these days. Are the Donks still ahead of us in quarterback development? Now that I think about it, all of those quarterbacks will be sitting at home watching Alex Smith in the playoffs this season.

[CrowbarMan]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

15th rated QB in football over the last six weeks.

15th in TDs.

Carr was right.

Why an arbitrary 6 games? What about the last 4? Or 5?

Cherry picking.

[jjchieffan]

Originally Posted by CrowbarMan

Why an arbitrary 6 games? What about the last 4? Or 5?

Cherry picking.

That's his thing. He has to cherry pick to make his point. He always has, always will.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by CrowbarMan

Why an arbitrary 6 games? What about the last 4? Or 5?

Cherry picking.

I just went with the same size pro football reference tweeted out. A nice independent judge.

Over the last six weeks, Ben Roethlisberger has 1,953 yards and 16 TDs. That's three more TDs and 88 more yards than any other QB in that span https://t.co/Qwg6Bgkx6H pic.twitter.com/JH035QfVuy

— ProFootballReference (@pfref) December 29, 2017

Since you seem interested in changing the data to see if it still fits, though, let's go with an even LARGER sample size to give us an even better picture.

Last eight games.

16th in TDs,
14th in QB rating
15th in YPA

Average Alex!

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

15th rated QB in football over the last six weeks.

15th in TDs.

Carr was right.

So average huh. I'm shocked.

[A8bil]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

I just went with the same size pro football reference tweeted out. A nice independent judge.

Since you seem interested in changing the data to see if it still fits, though, let's go with an even LARGER sample size to give us an even better picture.

Average Alex!

Everyone has an agenda. Let's take a look over the past 4 weeks, when Reid gave up play calling duties.

TDs 7 - Tied for 7th
QB Rate - 4th
Total Pass Yds - 6th
YPA - 4th
Aypa - 3rd

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by A8bil

Everyone has an agenda. Let's take a look over the past 4 weeks, when Reid gave up play calling duties.

TDs 7 - Tied for 7th
QB Rate - 4th
Total Pass Yds - 6th

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Sample size too small. Skewed by the Jets game.

[jjchieffan]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Sample size too small. Skewed by the Jets game.

i.e. That doesn't fit his narrative.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by jjchieffan

i.e. That doesn't fit his narrative.

It would seem there is more data supporting it than this other narrative though.

A 6, 8 or 3-game sample size suitably impugns Smith.

Homers want to overweight the Jets game within their own narrative. I simply balance it out.

[A8bil]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Sample size too small. Skewed by the Jets game.

the point is you can play your game for every QB in the league. Big Ben from weeks 3-9 was in the bottom 3rd of the league in every statistical category besides INT...LOL. like I said, Lies Damn Lies and Statistics.

[jjchieffan]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

It would seem there is more data supporting it than this other narrative though.

A 6, 8 or 3-game sample size suitably impugns Smith.

Homers want to overweight the Jets game within their own narrative. I simply balance it out.

Yet you throw out the first 6 weeks of the season entirely because Smith was on fire. Admit it Clay. You would have bet your left nut that Smith would never throw for 4000 yards and 26 TD's in 15 games. He has had a really good year. It's okay to admit that, no matter how much you loathe him.