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Deberg_1990 · 11-21-2017, 04:16 PM

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.

The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

St. Patty's Fire · 11-23-2017, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

Small sample size.

Every team we've beaten has a winning record.

Every team we've lost to has a losing record.

That tells me the coaching is where we fail...

Uh, what.

We beat the Broncos, Chargers and Texans, all under .500.

We lost to the steelers who are 7-2(?).

**RealSNR** · 11-23-2017, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

Having a QB that didn't stare down the only place the ball was going to go definitely helped...

The Vikings are winning football games by playing defense and not turning the ball over with Case Keenum.

Is anybody going to really say that Case Keenum is the reason why the Vikings are good right now?

Deberg_1990 · 11-23-2017, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RealSNR

The Vikings are winning football games by playing defense and not turning the ball over with Case Keenum.

Is anybody going to really say that Case Keenum is the reason why the Vikings are good right now?

Hes been decent. Not spectacular, but definitely good enough to help the team win.

He most likely wont win in the playoffs though.

Discuss Thrower · 11-23-2017, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RealSNR

The Vikings are winning football games by playing defense and not turning the ball over with Case Keenum.

Is anybody going to really say that Case Keenum is the reason why the Vikings are good right now?

Thielen, Diggs and Rudolph are pretty good non-RB receiving threats too.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 11-23-2017, 12:21 PM

Thielen and Diggs is probably the best WR duo going right now

Discuss Thrower · 11-23-2017, 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

The Chiefs were 2-14 the year before Smitty got here. He came here and they make the playoffs. Gee, what a coincidence.

Yes Reid's impact was huge as well but he isn't out there playing. Smitty turned this franchise around. Bunch of ingrates on this board.

You wanna know something about that 2-14 team that Smith 'magically' turned around all by his lonesome? And I have to point this out to you because you hadn't the scantest clue about anything about the Chiefs prior to March 2013.

It was two blocked FG attempts from two consecutive AFC West titles being quarterbacked by Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko and Kyle Orton. The latter half of that repeat had no Charles, no Berry and Dwayne Bowe as the top receiver. Oh and this was almost done with Todd ****ing Haley as the head coach.

Back to back titles is something Smith has never done at any point in his career and a bullpen of also-ran hack QBs almost pulled it off with two HCs whom had been promoted over their competence levels.

"But Smitty turned around a 2-14 team" is just about the laziest, dumbest and dishonest narrative to ever be discussed in any sports context.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 11-23-2017, 12:29 PM

The 2-14 team also had 6 pro bowlers, which is unheard of for most good teams let alone bad ones..

That season was a complete anomaly and a we were lucky to have it because it gave us a new regime that has created a winning culture.

PAChiefsGuy · 11-23-2017, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

The 2-14 team also had 6 pro bowlers, which is unheard of for most good teams let alone bad ones..

That season was a complete anomaly and a we were lucky to have it because it gave us Smitty and Reid.

FYP

Sweet Daddy Hate · 11-23-2017, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

F**k you b**ch.. Learn how to read. I never said it wasn't cover 2 I said they were disguising it.

Like I said either way, Reid will eventually figure it out. He's too good a HC not to

How much do you want to bet that Reid will REALLY "figure it out" once Mahomes is the starter?
How much do you want to bet that the O-line will REALLY "turn it around" once Mahomes is the starter?
How much do you want to bet that the TE's and WR's will REALLY "step it up" once Mahomes is the starter?
How much do you want to bet the the Defense will REALLY "get back on track and start making the turnovers happen again" once Mahomes is the starter?

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

Andy has figured it out. There's guys wide open and we see that on film.

His QB isn't figuring it out on the field.

Shhh...you're spoiling the surprise!

Quote:

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

And don't forget how pretty much everyone here wanted to fire Sutton. A couple games later now Smitty is the main problem with the team..

Flip-flop CP posters....

Um, we STILL want to fire Sutton.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sandy Vagina

They had nothing at QB2 on the roster.

"They just didn't have enough bodies on the QB roster"!!!

Every time I think that you could not demonstrate the act of being a fool to any greater a degree, you just turn right around and send that ante right on up to the Throne of God.

They traded firsts and moved up higher in position than I've EVER seen this franchise do in ALL THE YEARS that I have followed their drafts TO GET MAHOMES YOU IDIOT.

God almighty...

pugsnotdrugs19 · 11-23-2017, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Daddy Hate

How much do you want to bet that Reid will REALLY "figure it out" once Mahomes is the starter?
How much do you want to bet that the O-line will REALLY "turn it around" once Mahomes is the starter?
How much do you want to bet that the TE's and WR's will REALLY "step it up" once Mahomes is the starter?
How much do you want to bet the the Defense will REALLY "get back on track and start making the turnovers happen again" once Mahomes is the starter?

It's so true.

**Easy 6** · 11-23-2017, 01:36 PM

Been holding out all year on Mahomes, wanting him to sit and develop a great foundation for success

But at this point, I would be willing to concede the point, seems like there is no question that Pat would spark this entire team... from the O line and receivers, to the defense getting feisty again

The flaws in his fundamentals can be worked on during camp and preseason, I am completely ready to see him start making more of those 'The Last Airbender' throws like we witnessed this preseason

Imon Yourside · 11-23-2017, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman

Actually, we do have contempt for that.

Yup

pugsnotdrugs19 · 11-23-2017, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Easy 6

Been holding out all year on Mahomes, wanting him to sit and develop a great foundation for success

But at this point, I would be willing to concede the point, seems like there is no question that Pat would spark this entire team... from the O line and receivers, to the defense getting feisty again

The flaws in his fundamentals can be worked on during camp and preseason, I am completely ready to see him start making more of those 'The Last Airbender' throws like we witnessed this preseason

At this point he's been given much more time to sit and learn than most QBs ever get taken that early. But to have a chance to play your first NFL games against some pretty bad teams to finish this season, and then also likely get to start a playoff game in his rookie year... man, that's a hard opportunity to look away from.

Give him the last 5 games plus playoffs to get in game experience on top of the 12 weeks he has sat, and you get the best of both worlds. We have a team and coaches around him that shouldn't put him in situations to fail. He is set up nicely.

Imon Yourside · 11-23-2017, 01:49 PM

I am probably the last guy to call for the QB's head but I agree Let's get Mahomes in there now. Let's put him in and take our lumps regardless of what happens. Tired of these teams all my life that are just good enough to be a sacrificial lamb in the playoffs.

**Easy 6** · 11-23-2017, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

At this point he's been given much more time to sit and learn than most QBs ever get taken that early. But to have a chance to play your first NFL games against some pretty bad teams to finish this season, and then also likely get to start a playoff game in his rookie year... man, that's a hard opportunity to look away from.

Give him the last 5 games plus playoffs to get in game experience on top of the 12 weeks he has sat, and you get the best of both worlds. We have a team and coaches around him that shouldn't put him in situations to fail. He is set up nicely.

It took a while to come around, but I completely agree

Guys like Luck, Prescott, and Wentz stepped right in as starters and excelled, and while Mahomes was ostensibly a more raw product coming out... I have faith that Reid could custom tailor things around him to minimize that for the rest of this year

11-21-2017, 04:16 PM
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Deberg_1990's Avatar Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx.	David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes" The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year. The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday. I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback. Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1). Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season. September: 92.0 October: 111.1 November: 63.5 Dec.-Jan.: 68.8 The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses. I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses. It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs
Posts: 66,914

11-23-2017, 12:21 PM	#230
pugsnotdrugs19 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS pugsnotdrugs19's Avatar Join Date: Aug 2013	Thielen and Diggs is probably the best WR duo going right now
Posts: 26,376

11-23-2017, 12:29 PM	#232
pugsnotdrugs19 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS pugsnotdrugs19's Avatar Join Date: Aug 2013	The 2-14 team also had 6 pro bowlers, which is unheard of for most good teams let alone bad ones.. That season was a complete anomaly and a we were lucky to have it because it gave us a new regime that has created a winning culture.
Posts: 26,376

11-23-2017, 01:36 PM	#236
Easy 6 pie is never free Easy 6's Avatar Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: the drivers seat	Been holding out all year on Mahomes, wanting him to sit and develop a great foundation for success But at this point, I would be willing to concede the point, seems like there is no question that Pat would spark this entire team... from the O line and receivers, to the defense getting feisty again The flaws in his fundamentals can be worked on during camp and preseason, I am completely ready to see him start making more of those 'The Last Airbender' throws like we witnessed this preseason
Posts: 91,677

11-23-2017, 01:49 PM	#239
Imon Yourside WhatUneed2Hear Imon Yourside's Avatar Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: AllSoulsMatter	I am probably the last guy to call for the QB's head but I agree Let's get Mahomes in there now. Let's put him in and take our lumps regardless of what happens. Tired of these teams all my life that are just good enough to be a sacrificial lamb in the playoffs.
Posts: 44,226	2 0